[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Ahmed Chilmeran Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Oct 17 16:09:10 EDT 2012
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, October 17
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9796 down 0.0058
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately higher.
DEC12 HI 7.46 1/4 DEC13 HI 6.26 3/4
LOW 7.36 1/4 LOW 6.20 1/2
CLOSE7.45 1/2 Up 7 1/4 CLOSE 6.26 1/2 Up 3 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC12+MAR13+MAR13
CK Low -0.65 6.81 267.90 -0.85 5.42 213.18
CK High -0.60 6.86 269.87 -0.70 5.57 219.08
CK Avg -0.64 -0.49 6.81 268.23 -0.73 -0.64 5.53 217.77
Essex Cty -0.65 6.81 267.90 -0.70 5.57 219.08
Mdsx Low -0.65 6.81 267.90 -0.75 5.52 217.12
Mdsx High -0.55 6.91 271.84 -0.70 5.57 219.08
Mdsx Avg -0.60 -0.44 6.86 269.87 -0.73 -0.64 5.54 218.10
Hensall -0.55 6.91 271.84 -0.68 5.59 220.07
Bruce -0.60 6.86 269.87 -0.70 5.57 219.08
Putnam -0.65 6.81 267.90 -0.70 5.57 219.08
Burford -0.65 6.81 267.90 -0.75 5.52 217.12
Port Perry -0.70 6.76 265.93 -0.75 5.52 217.12
Norfolk -0.55 6.91 271.84 0.70 6.97 274.20
Palmerston -0.60 6.86 269.87 -0.80 5.47 215.15
Varna -0.55 6.91 271.84 -0.65 5.62 221.05
Trenton -0.60 6.86 269.87 -0.80 5.47 215.15
Winchester -0.25 7.21 283.65 -0.70 5.57 219.08
North Gower -0.50 6.96 273.81 -0.84 5.43 213.57
Huron FOB -0.55 6.91 271.84 -0.65 5.62 221.05
Kent FOB -0.65 6.81 267.90 -0.70 5.57 219.08
Lamb FOB -0.65 6.81 267.90 -0.70 5.57 219.08
Mdsx FOB -0.60 -0.60 -0.50 -0.45 6.86 269.87 -0.75 5.52 217.12
FOB SW Que -0.90 6.56 258.06 -0.80 5.47 215.15
Track -0.05 7.41 291.52N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth -0.50 -0.50 -0.35 -0.30 6.96 273.81 N/A
Sarn-Eth -0.50 -0.50 -0.20 -0.20 6.96 273.81N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Cas N/A -0.35 -0.20 -0.20 -0.55 5.72 224.99
Pt.Colb-Cas -0.10 -0.20 0.00 0.05 7.36 289.55 -0.50 5.77 226.96
Cardnl-Cas -0.25 -0.40 0.00 0.05 7.21 283.65 -0.50 5.77 226.96
W O Feed -0.13 -0.11 7.33 288.53
US Rep 0.50 0.52 7.96 313.17
Toledo El. 0.04 7.49 295.03 -0.42 5.84 229.96
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton -0.60 6.86269 7/8 -0.60 5.67223
MID SD CRN -0.62 1/2 6.83
HI SD CRN -0.60 6.85 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9796 down 0.0058
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately higher.
NOV12 HI 15.11 1/4 NOV13 HI 13.38
LOW 14.87 1/4 LOW 13.25
CLOSE15.09 1/4 Up 15 1/2 CLOSE 13.36 1/2 Up 8 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+JAN13
CK Low -1.27 13.82 507.89-1.20 12.17 446.99
CK High -1.13 13.96 513.03-1.05 12.32 452.50
CK Average -1.20 -0.8813.89 510.46-1.10-0.9112.26 450.60
Essex Cty -1.16 13.93 511.93-0.97 12.40 455.44
Mdsx Low -1.25 13.84 508.62-1.11 12.26 450.29
Mdsx High -1.15 13.94 512.30-1.00 12.37 454.34
Mdsx Average -1.20 -0.8813.89 510.46-1.06-0.8612.31 452.32
Hensall -1.15 13.94 512.30-1.05 12.32 452.50
Bruce -1.15 13.94 512.30-1.00 12.37 454.34
Putnam -1.20 13.89 510.46-1.00 12.37 454.34
Burford -1.25 13.84 508.62-1.11 12.26 450.29
Port Perry -1.28 13.81 507.52-1.14 12.23 449.19
Norfolk -1.05 14.04 515.97-1.03 12.34 453.23
Palmerston -1.20 13.89 510.46-1.20 12.17 446.99
Varna -1.15 13.94 512.30-1.10 12.27 450.66
Trenton -1.06 14.03 515.61-1.22 12.15 446.25
Winchester -0.80 14.29 525.16-1.10 12.27 450.66
North Gower -0.96 14.13 519.28-1.07 12.30 451.76
Huron FOB -1.05 14.04 515.97-1.00 12.37 454.34
Kent FOB -1.20 13.89 510.46-1.08 12.29 451.40
Lambton FOB -1.20 13.89 510.46-1.08 12.29 451.40
Middlesex FOB-1.09-0.99-0.89 N/A 14.00 514.50-0.95 12.42 456.17
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.75-0.50-0.45-0.35 14.34 527.00-0.50 12.87 472.71
Windsor -0.93-0.73-0.67-0.67 14.16 520.38-0.75 12.62 463.52
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.75 N/A N/A N/A 14.34 527.00-0.75 12.62 463.52
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC -0.20 14.89 547.21-0.45 12.92 474.55
Toledo El. -0.23 14.87 546.28-0.47 12.89 473.69
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9796 down 0.0058
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC12 HI 8.58 JUL13 HI 8.38 3/4
LOW 8.45 1/2 LOW 8.32
CLOSE 8.56 1/4 Up 8 1/2 CLOSE 8.36 3/4 Up 4
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately higher.
DEC12 HI 9.40 1/2 SEP13 HI 9.24 3/4
LOW 9.22 3/4 LOW 9.16
CLOSE 9.39 1/2 Up 15 CLOSE 9.24 3/4 Up 8 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 12 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.77 -0.57 -1.11 -1.13
CAD $/bu 7.80 7.99 7.45 8.27
CAD $/tonne 286.44 293.64 273.85 303.80
Direct MarkHarvest 2012 Harvest 2013
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A -1.35 N/A N/A -1.00 -1.35 N/A
London -1.02 -1.02 -1.36 N/A -1.01 -1.01 -1.36 N/A
Hensall -0.90 N/A -1.30 N/A -0.80 N/A -1.35 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A -1.51 N/A N/A N/A -1.36 N/A
Norwich -0.90 N/A -1.30 N/A -0.80 N/A -1.35 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.90 N/A -1.30 N/A -0.80 N/A -1.35 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.95 -1.31 N/A N/A -0.95 -1.31 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.95 -1.31 N/A N/A -0.95 -1.31 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.62 -1.12 -1.31 N/A -0.79 -1.28 -1.23
Varna -0.90 -0.95 -1.30 N/A -0.75 -1.00 -1.20 N/A
Mitchell -0.90 -1.00 -1.30 N/A -0.80 -1.00 -1.35 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.85 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A -0.82 N/A N/A N/A -0.99
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -1.25 N/A N/A N/A -1.00 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A -0.08N/A N/A N/A -0.22N/A
Toledo El. 8.30US 8.13CA 8.19US 8.07CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 13 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.42 -0.12 -0.76 -0.97
CAD $/bu 7.95 8.25 7.61 8.28
CAD $/tonne 292.19 303.06 279.52 304.15
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 360.00 - 365.00
Bayport Oats 328.00
Bayport Barley 345.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 516.66 - 521.07
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 255.00 - 265.00
Wednesday October 17, 2012
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement - Thursday to Friday
Corn CBOT Dec 7.4554 ↓ 9.21 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 15.0925 ↓ 12.75 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 8.5625 ↓ 4.50 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 9.3950 ↑ 11.50 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 9.4000 ↑ 45.00 cents
Canadian $ Dec 1.0215 ↑ 26.00 points
Following China National Offshore Oil Corporation acquirement of Alberta’s Nexen Inc., and a $5.8 billion proposal by Malaysian state oil company Petroliam Nasional Bhd. to buy Progress Energy Resources Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp, the world’s largest publically traded company is looking to raise its presence in Western Canada’s promising shale oil and gas regions with a $2.5 billion deal to acquire Celtic Exploration Ltd. The issue of Canadian housing debt to income ratio is an important factor in gauging the health of the economy, but more importantly is the composition of the debt. The majority of the contribution of growth in household debt since the recession has been from heavy-debt load borrowers. The event of a housing bubble, while unlikely as it requires sudden events of large magnitude, like large growth of interest rates in a short span or a subprime delinquency remains prevalent. Canada’s central banker, Mark Carney reassured that while “Canada’s public finances are sound” and “monetary policy is clear and credible” policymakers are ready to act in a worst-case scenario. The loonie firmed against the greenback on Wednesday after data supportive of the recovery in the US housing sector.
Corn
Corn futures were up, trading higher at midsession. Trade has been relatively quiet as investors wait for shifting news. Seasonality and weak demand remain bearish factors for the market. China is headed for its second-straight record corn harvest, according to the US Grains Council (USGC), which recently returned from a tour of China's fields. The estimate a 3% increase of last year’s crop
Soybeans
Soybean was up in Chicago. Market fundamental support is limited following the USDA’s report of an export sale of 110,150 tonnes of soybeans to an unknown destination. Speculation of a large South American soybean crop is hampering upside movement. November soybean futures are trading slightly higher.
WHEAT
Wheat is up in Chicago. Prices are finding support from a weaker dollar. However, lack of market shifting news and stable fundamentals leaves trade sensitive to a sudden change in the dollar exchange. Algeria issued a tender to buy 50,000 tons of wheat, helping support European wheat prices. Dry weather worries continue to loom in several key global crop producing regions including Australia which continues to suffer from very dry wheat conditions.
Contract prices for October 17th 2012 at 3pm, are as follows:
SWW at $286.43 per tonne ($7.80 /bu), HRW at $293.62 per tonne ($7.99/bu.),
HRS at $303.79 per tonne ($8.27/bu.), and SRW at $273.84 per tonne ($7.45 /bu.).
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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