[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Ahmed Chilmeran Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Oct 11 16:15:55 EDT 2012
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, October 11
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9782 down 0.0005
Chicago corn closed higher to sharply higher.
DEC12 HI 7.76 DEC13 HI 6.47
LOW 7.33 3/4 LOW 6.26 1/2
CLOSE7.73 1/4 Up 36 1/2 CLOSE 6.46 Up 15 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC12+MAR13+MAR13
CK Low -0.60 7.13 280.79 -0.75 5.71 224.79
CK High -0.55 7.18 282.76 -0.70 5.76 226.76
CK Avg -0.59 -0.44 7.14 281.12 -0.71 -0.61 5.75 226.37
Essex Cty -0.60 7.13 280.79 -0.70 5.76 226.76
Mdsx Low -0.60 7.13 280.79 -0.75 5.71 224.79
Mdsx High -0.55 7.18 282.76 -0.70 5.76 226.76
Mdsx Avg -0.58 -0.42 7.16 281.78 -0.73 -0.62 5.74 225.78
Hensall -0.55 7.18 282.76 -0.68 5.79 227.75
Bruce -0.60 7.13 280.79 -0.70 5.76 226.76
Putnam -0.60 7.13 280.79 -0.70 5.76 226.76
Burford -0.60 7.13 280.79 -0.75 5.71 224.79
Port Perry -0.75 6.98 274.89 -0.75 5.71 224.79
Norfolk -0.60 7.13 280.79 -0.70 5.76 226.76
Palmerston -0.60 7.13 280.79 -0.80 5.66 222.82
Varna -0.55 7.18 282.76 -0.65 5.81 228.73
Trenton -0.65 7.08 278.83 -0.80 5.66 222.82
Winchester -0.25 7.48 294.57 -0.80 5.66 222.82
North Gower -0.50 7.23 284.73 -0.70 5.76 226.76
Huron FOB -0.55 7.18 282.76 -0.65 5.81 228.73
Kent FOB -0.60 7.13 280.79 -0.70 5.76 226.76
Lamb FOB -0.60 7.13 280.79 -0.70 5.76 226.76
Mdsx FOB -0.60 -0.60 -0.45 -0.40 7.13 280.79 -0.75 5.71 224.79
FOB SW Que -0.85 6.88 270.95 -0.75 5.71 224.79
Track -0.03 7.71 303.43N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth -0.50 -0.50 -0.35 -0.30 7.23 284.73 N/A
Sarn-Eth -0.40 -0.40 -0.20 -0.20 7.33 288.67N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Cas -0.25 -0.35 -0.20 -0.20 7.48 294.57 -0.55 5.91 232.67
Pt.Colb-Cas 0.00 -0.30 0.00 0.05 7.73 304.42 -0.50 5.96 234.63
Cardnl-Cas -0.15 -0.40 0.00 0.05 7.58 298.51 -0.50 5.96 234.63
W O Feed 0.22 0.24 7.95 313.08
US Rep 0.50 0.52 8.23 324.10
Toledo El. 0.04 7.77 305.96 -0.42 6.04 237.66
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton -0.70 7.03276 6/7 -0.62 5.84230
MID SD CRN -0.57 1/2 7.15 3/4
HI SD CRN -0.55 7.18 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9782 down 0.0005
Chicago soybeans closed moderately higher to higher.
NOV12 HI 15.68 NOV13 HI 13.61 3/4
LOW 15.21 1/4 LOW 13.36 1/4
CLOSE15.48 1/2 Up 25 1/4 CLOSE 13.53 1/2 Up 18 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN13
CK Low -1.31 14.18 520.84-1.24 12.30 451.76
CK High -1.20 14.29 524.88-1.15 12.39 455.07
CK Average -1.24 -0.9414.24 523.29-1.18-0.9612.36 454.15
Essex Cty -1.17 14.32 525.99-0.98 12.56 461.32
Mdsx Low -1.30 14.19 521.21-1.18 12.36 453.97
Mdsx High -1.20 14.29 524.88-1.15 12.39 455.07
Mdsx Average -1.25 -0.9414.24 523.05-1.17-0.9512.37 454.52
Hensall -1.20 14.29 524.88-1.18 12.36 454.15
Bruce -1.25 14.24 523.05-1.20 12.34 453.23
Putnam -1.25 14.24 523.05-1.20 12.34 453.23
Burford -1.30 14.19 521.21-1.18 12.36 453.97
Port Perry -1.33 14.16 520.11-1.21 12.33 452.87
Norfolk -1.15 14.34 526.72-1.11 12.43 456.54
Palmerston -1.30 14.19 521.21-1.30 12.24 449.56
Varna -1.20 14.29 524.88-1.20 12.34 453.23
Trenton -1.10 14.39 528.56-1.25 12.29 451.40
Winchester -0.85 14.64 537.74-1.25 12.29 451.40
North Gower -0.95 14.54 534.07-0.78 12.76 468.67
Huron FOB -1.10 14.39 528.56-1.10 12.44 456.91
Kent FOB -1.20 14.29 524.88-1.16 12.38 454.70
Lambton FOB -1.20 14.29 524.88-1.16 12.38 454.70
Middlesex FOB-1.14-0.93-0.93 N/A 14.35 527.09-1.02 12.52 459.85
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.75-0.60-0.55-0.55 14.74 541.42-0.65 12.89 473.44
Windsor -0.94-0.79-0.68-0.68 14.55 534.44-0.75 12.79 469.77
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.70-0.56 N/A N/A 14.79 543.26-0.76 12.78 469.40
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC -0.20 15.29 561.63-0.45 13.09 480.79
Toledo El. -0.23 15.26 560.69-0.47 13.06 479.97
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.9782 down 0.0005
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
DEC12 HI 8.94 JUL13 HI 8.67 1/4
LOW 8.59 LOW 8.36 3/4
CLOSE 8.86 Up 16 1/4 CLOSE 8.61 1/2 Up 15 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately higher.
DEC12 HI 9.56 SEP13 HI 9.45
LOW 9.30 3/4 LOW 9.19 3/4
CLOSE 9.45 1/2 Up 11 3/4 CLOSE 9.36 1/4 Up 15 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 12 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.76 -0.57 -1.11 -1.12
CAD $/bu 8.10 8.29 7.75 8.34
CAD $/tonne 297.49 304.70 284.89 306.32
Direct MarkHarvest 2012 Harvest 2013
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A -1.40 N/A N/A -1.05 -1.25 N/A
London -1.06 -1.06 -1.40 N/A -1.05 -1.05 -1.35 N/A
Hensall -0.90 N/A -1.25 N/A -0.75 N/A -1.25 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A -1.52 N/A N/A N/A -1.36 N/A
Norwich -0.90 N/A -1.25 N/A -0.75 N/A -1.25 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.90 N/A -1.25 N/A -0.75 N/A -1.25 N/A
Chatham N/A -1.03 -1.38 N/A N/A -1.03 -1.33 N/A
Brigden N/A -1.03 -1.38 N/A N/A -1.03 -1.33 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.88 -1.32 -1.32 N/A -0.86 -1.17 -1.27
Varna -0.90 -0.95 -1.30 N/A -0.75 -1.00 -1.20 N/A
Mitchell -0.90 -0.95 -1.25 N/A -0.75 -1.00 -1.25 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.69 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A -0.82 N/A N/A N/A -0.92
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -1.25 N/A N/A N/A -1.00 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A -0.08N/A N/A N/A -0.24N/A
Toledo El. 8.60US 8.43CA 8.44US 8.30CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 13 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.43 -0.14 -0.78 -0.99
CAD $/bu 8.18 8.48 7.84 8.38
CAD $/tonne 300.62 311.47 287.97 307.76
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 360.00 - 365.00
Bayport Oats 328.00
Bayport Barley 345.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 535.95 - 540.36
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 265.00 - 275.00
Thursday October 11, 2012
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement - Thursday to Friday
Corn CBOT Dec 7.7275 ↑ 25.00 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 15.4850 ↓ 13.25 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 8.8600 ↑ 24.25 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 9.4675 ↑ 25.75 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 9.1800 ↑ 76.00 cents
Canadian $ Dec 1.0202 ↓ 22.00 points
The TSX was up on encouraging US employment data and found support from IMF comments towards the EU. The resource heavy TSX saw shares up as commodity prices rose. The Spanish government has deflected the idea of tapping into the new European Central Bank bond-buying facility that has been largely designed to keep the country’s borrowing rates at bay. Canada’s global trade deficit was slashed to $1.3 billion in August from from $2.5 billion in July, mostly due to lower imports. This may support the notion, that the national economy is hitting the breaks catching up with the pace of the global economy. The loonie advanced Thursday amid rising commodity prices while traders appeared to take in cautiously the news about Spain’s debt.
Corn
Corn futures were up in Chicago following the USDA report. The USDA slightly lowered its estimates of corn crop for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of recent weather trends. The USDA estimates that farmers will harvest 10.71 billion bushels of corn this year, which would be the smallest amount since 2006. Last month's estimate was 10.73 billion bushels. Average yield is 122 bu/acres, down from last month's estimate of 122.8 bushels. That is the lowest average yield since 1995 and is significantly below last year's yield of nearly 153 bushels per acre.
Soybeans
Soybean was up in Chicago following the USDA report. Production was increased to 2.86 billion bushels with better than expected yields. Soybeans tend to withstand draught better than corn and recent rains seem to have helped, with yields estimated at 37.8 bu/acre. The yield projections were up from the previous month's estimate of 35.3 bushels.
WHEAT
Wheat rallied up in Chicago following a bullish USDA report. The USDA lowered its forecast for global stockpiles and indicated that feed wheat usage would increase on domestic cattle consumption. Global production was pegged at 653.05 million tons, down 0.9% from last month. About 315 million bushels would be allocated for cattle feed, up from last month’s prediction of 220 million according to the USDA.
Contract prices for October 11th 2012 at 4pm, are as follows:
SWW at $297.55 per tonne ($8.10 /bu), HRW at $304.76 per tonne ($8.29/bu.),
HRS at $306.83 per tonne ($8.35/bu.), and SRW at $284.95 per tonne ($7.76 /bu.).
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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