[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed May 15 15:16:11 EDT 2019
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, May 15
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3425 down 0.0024
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
JUL19 HI 3.80 DEC19 HI 3.97 3/4
LOW 3.68 LOW 3.87 1/4
CLOSE3.69 1/2 Up 3/4 CLOSE 3.88 3/4 Up 1
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL19+SEP19+SEP19
CK Low 1.00 4.70 184.83 0.90 4.79 188.48
CK High 1.10 4.80 188.77 0.90 4.79 188.48
CK Avg 1.08 -0.14 4.77 187.79 0.90 -0.32 4.79 188.48
Essex Cty 1.10 4.80 188.77 0.90 4.79 188.48
Mdsx Low 1.10 4.80 188.77 0.90 4.79 188.48
Mdsx High 1.10 4.80 188.77 0.90 4.79 188.48
Mdsx Avg 1.10 -0.12 4.80 188.77 0.90 -0.32 4.79 188.48
Hensall 1.10 4.80 188.77 0.93 4.81 189.46
Bruce 1.05 4.75 186.80 0.90 4.79 188.48
Putnam 1.10 4.80 188.77 0.90 4.79 188.48
Burford 1.10 4.80 188.77 0.90 4.79 188.48
Port Perry 1.10 4.80 188.77 0.90 4.79 188.48
Norfolk 1.10 4.80 188.77 0.90 4.79 188.48
Palmerston 1.05 4.75 186.80 0.95 4.84 190.44
Varna 1.05 4.75 186.80 0.90 4.79 188.48
Trenton 1.05 4.75 186.80 0.90 4.79 188.48
Winchester 1.11 4.81 189.16 1.20 5.09 200.29
North Gower 1.10 4.80 188.77 1.18 5.07 199.50
Huron FOB 1.31 5.01 197.04 0.92 4.81 189.26
Kent FOB 1.40 5.10 200.58 0.90 4.79 188.48
Lamb FOB 1.45 5.15 202.55 0.95 4.84 190.44
Mdsx FOB 1.40 1.35 1.45 1.45 5.10 200.58 0.95 4.84 190.44
FOB SW Que 1.98 5.68 223.41 1.34 5.23 205.80
Track 1.53 5.22 205.50N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A 1.70 1.74 1.09 4.98 195.96
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 5.30 208.45 1.10 4.99 196.35
Sarn-Eth 1.50 1.50N/A N/A 5.20 204.52N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.73 1.20 5.09 200.29
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35 5.24 206.19
W O Feed 1.70 5.40 212.55
US Rep 1.91 5.61 220.66
Toledo El. -0.05 3.64 143.35 -0.27 3.62 142.47
TRANSFER
Port ColbornN/A 1.15 5.04198 1/3
MID SD CRN 0.90 4.78 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.90 4.78 3/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3425 down 0.0024
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
JUL19 HI 8.48 1/4 NOV19 HI 8.71 1/2
LOW 8.27 LOW 8.52
CLOSE8.35 1/2 Up 4 CLOSE 8.59 3/4 Up 3 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+JUL1+AUG19
CK Low 1.95 10.31 378.641.95 10.55 387.55
CK High 2.05 10.41 382.322.00 10.60 389.39
CK Average 2.00 -0.6410.36 380.481.98 -0.7210.58 388.78
Essex Cty 1.95 10.31 378.641.95 10.55 387.55
Mdsx Low 1.90 10.26 376.811.95 10.55 387.55
Mdsx High 2.05 10.41 382.322.00 10.60 389.39
Mdsx Average 1.98 -0.6610.33 379.561.98 -0.7210.57 388.47
Hensall 2.00 10.36 380.481.98 10.57 388.47
Bruce 2.00 10.36 380.481.95 10.55 387.55
Putnam 2.05 10.41 382.322.00 10.60 389.39
Burford 1.95 10.31 378.642.00 10.60 389.39
Port Perry 1.92 10.28 377.541.97 10.57 388.29
Norfolk 1.95 10.31 378.641.95 10.55 387.55
Palmerston 2.00 10.36 380.481.95 10.55 387.55
Varna 2.00 10.36 380.481.95 10.55 387.55
Trenton 2.00 10.36 380.482.00 10.60 389.39
Winchester N/A 2.00 10.60 389.39
North Gower 1.99 10.35 380.111.99 10.59 389.02
Huron FOB 2.10 10.46 384.162.05 10.65 391.23
Kent FOB 2.15 10.51 385.991.95 10.55 387.55
Lambton FOB 2.15 10.51 385.992.05 10.65 391.23
Middlesex FOB2.16 2.16 2.23 N/A 10.52 386.362.01 10.61 389.76
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.40 10.76 395.182.28 10.88 399.68
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.45 10.81 397.022.40 11.00 404.09
Prescott N/A 2.30 10.90 400.41
Port Colborne N/A 2.38 10.98 403.35
Toledo El. -0.60 7.75 284.80-0.74 7.86 288.77
Exchange rate was 1.3425 down 0.0024
Chicago wheat closed narrowly mixed.
JUL19 HI 4.64 JUL19 HI 4.64
LOW 4.47 LOW 4.47
CLOSE 4.48 3/4 Up 1/4 CLOSE 4.48 3/4 Up 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
JUL19 HI 5.35 1/2 SEP19 HI 5.44
LOW 5.15 LOW 5.24 1/4
CLOSE 5.15 1/4 Down 8 CLOSE 5.24 1/2 Down 7 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.54 1.60 1.40 0.82
CAD $/bu 6.02 6.09 5.89 5.98
CAD $/tonne 221.36 223.82 216.42 219.63
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.30 N/A N/A N/A 1.30 N/A
London 1.32 1.72 1.25 N/A 1.38 1.71 1.31 N/A
Hensall 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.30 N/A
Bruce 1.60 1.75 1.25 N/A 1.60 1.70 1.30 1.00
Essex N/A N/A 1.25 N/A N/A N/A 1.30 N/A
Norwich 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.60 1.30 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.25 N/A N/A N/A 1.30 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.25 N/A N/A N/A 1.30 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.80 1.40 1.10 N/A 1.78 1.38 1.00
Varna 1.50 1.75 1.30 N/A 1.50 1.70 1.30 N/A
Mitchell 1.60 1.60 1.30 N/A 1.60 1.60 1.30 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 1.20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.42 1.20 0.70 N/A 1.83 1.38 0.85
W O Feed 1.89
TERMINAL
Port Colbor N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.72 2.06 1.58 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.54 N/A N/A N/A 1.54 N/A
Toledo El. 4.37US 5.86CA 4.37US 5.86CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.60 1.94 1.47 1.06
CAD $/bu 6.09 6.43 5.96 6.30
CAD $/tonne 223.82 236.15 218.89 231.59
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 461.66
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 205.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for May 15, 2019
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Futures Prices as of close, May 15, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 3.69 ↑ 05 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 8.35 ↑ 07 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.48 ↑ 11 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.15 ↓ 05 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.02 ↓ 01 cents
Oats CBOT July 2.88 ↑ 10 cents
Canadian $ Jun 0.7450 ↑ 0.25 points
Corn:
The May futures expired on May 14 and this allowed the pressure cooker to be released. Prices quickly bounced on the July contract hitting the intermediate downtrend line at the $3.80 level. Much of this was fund covering, which basically means profit taking and short covering. From here, we should track sideways for the next few weeks between the $3.40 lows and $3.80 resistance level. The markets did gap higher on May 15 and we should visit that gap of $3.57 - $3.60 in the coming days. Support was tested and passed with flying colours. Last week, we suggested we would see significant volatility this week, and the markets did not disappoint.
Good support is now seen at $3.40 and our overhead resistance is now pegged at $3.80 - $4 on the July futures. I expect a confined range in the coming week.
All indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
Soybeans challenged the all-important $8 level again on the July futures, and with the May contract expiring quickly, bounced off the support. As mentioned in our last commentary, we were expecting a rebound in prices once the support was proven. This should mark the bottom for the next few weeks as we will now probe the upside with obvious resistance at the $9 ledge from where we fell. This resistance should prove to be significant and unless we get convincingly through the $9 level on a close, the chances of us visiting the $8 level once again is compelling.
Support is still at the $8 level on July while the overhead struggle will be at the $8.80 - $9 level heading into June. I expect sideways movement in the next week.
A break below the lows of May could still propel this market much lower, but I feel that would happen into the late summer if it transpires.
All indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.
Wheat:
Wheat behaved well through the May 13 report. We tested the $4.20 level on the July futures once again and once the May futures expired the wheat like the other grains had a nice bounce. For the short term, the downside pressure has been tempered and I expect sideways movement for the next week or two.
Good support is still seen at the $4.20 level on the July futures and our overhead challenge is now pegged at the $4.80 level on the July futures. Failure to clear the $4.80 level in the coming weeks will suggest another test of the support at $4.20. Indicators are mixed with a primary trend being neutral.
Cash Grain prices as of the close, May 15, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $221.50/MT ($6.03/bu), HRW @ $223.97/MT ($6.10/bu),
HRS @ $215.93/MT ($5.97/bu), SRW @ $216.57/MT ($5.89/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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