[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed May 29 15:30:47 EDT 2019


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, May 29
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3509 up 0.0030
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.

      JUL19   HI 4.38                         DEC19    HI 4.54
             LOW 4.12  1/4                            LOW 4.30
            CLOSE4.18  3/4  Down 1 1/2              CLOSE 4.35  3/4  Down 1 1/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +JUL19+SEP19+SEP19
CK Low       1.20                        5.39 212.10  1.00         5.36 210.92
CK High      1.25                        5.44 214.06  1.00         5.36 210.92
CK Avg       1.23                  -0.18 5.41 213.08  1.00 -0.39   5.36 210.92
Essex Cty    1.25                        5.44 214.06  1.00         5.36 210.92
Mdsx Low     1.20                        5.39 212.10  1.00         5.36 210.92
Mdsx High    1.20                        5.39 212.10  1.00         5.36 210.92
Mdsx Avg     1.20                  -0.20 5.39 212.10  1.00 -0.39   5.36 210.92
Hensall      1.23                        5.41 213.08  1.03         5.38 211.90
Bruce        1.20                        5.39 212.10  1.00         5.36 210.92
Putnam       1.20                        5.39 212.10  1.00         5.36 210.92
Burford      1.20                        5.39 212.10  1.00         5.36 210.92
Port Perry   1.15                        5.34 210.13  1.00         5.36 210.92
Norfolk      1.25                        5.44 214.06  1.00         5.36 210.92
Palmerston   1.15                        5.34 210.13  1.10         5.46 214.85
Varna        1.20                        5.39 212.10  1.00         5.36 210.92
Trenton      1.10                        5.29 208.16  1.00         5.36 210.92
Winchester   1.19                        5.38 211.70  1.19         5.55 218.40
North Gower  1.15                        5.34 210.13  1.18         5.54 218.00
Huron FOB    1.65                        5.84 229.81  1.15         5.51 216.82
Kent FOB     1.50                        5.69 223.91  1.00         5.36 210.92
Lamb FOB     1.60                        5.79 227.84  1.05         5.41 212.88
Mdsx FOB     1.40  1.40N/A   N/A         5.59 219.97  1.00         5.36 210.92
FOB SW Que   1.83                        6.02 236.90  1.34         5.70 224.30
Track        1.68                        5.86 230.80N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A     1.74                   1.15         5.51 216.82
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      N/A
Sarn-Eth    N/A  N/A     1.50  1.60                 N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A     1.85                   1.25         5.61 220.76
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      1.35         5.71 224.69
W O Feed     1.85                        6.04 237.59

US Rep       2.16                        6.35 249.89
Toledo El.   0.03                        4.21 165.92 -0.27         4.09 160.91

TRANSFER
Port ColbornN/A                                       1.15         5.51216 5/6

MID SD CRN                                            1.00         5.35 3/4
HI SD CRN                                             1.00         5.35 3/4
*Wet Bid


Exchange rate was 1.3509 up 0.0030
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately higher.

       JUL19   HI 8.92  3/4           NOV19    HI 9.18  1/2
              LOW 8.63  1/2                   LOW 8.89  3/4
             CLOSE8.72   Up 16              CLOSE 8.98  1/2  Up 16

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +JUL1+JUL1+AUG19
CK Low       2.10                     10.82 397.572.10      11.09 407.30
CK High      2.25                     10.97 403.082.20      11.19 410.98
CK Average   2.19                -0.6410.91 400.872.15 -0.7411.13 409.08
Essex Cty    2.30                     11.02 404.922.15      11.14 409.14
Mdsx Low     2.14                     10.86 399.042.09      11.08 406.94
Mdsx High    2.20                     10.92 401.242.15      11.14 409.14
Mdsx Average 2.17                -0.6610.89 400.142.12 -0.7611.11 408.04
Hensall      2.20                     10.92 401.242.15      11.14 409.14
Bruce        2.15                     10.87 399.402.10      11.09 407.30
Putnam       2.20                     10.92 401.242.15      11.14 409.14
Burford      2.19                     10.91 400.872.14      11.13 408.77
Port Perry   2.16                     10.88 399.772.11      11.10 407.67
Norfolk      2.25                     10.97 403.082.15      11.14 409.14
Palmerston   2.10                     10.82 397.572.05      11.04 405.47
Varna        2.20                     10.92 401.242.15      11.14 409.14
Trenton      2.10                     10.82 397.572.15      11.14 409.14
Winchester    N/A                                 2.18      11.17 410.24
North Gower  1.99                     10.71 393.532.10      11.09 407.30
Huron FOB    2.35                     11.07 406.752.25      11.24 412.82
Kent FOB     2.50                     11.22 412.262.15      11.14 409.14
Lambton FOB  2.55                     11.27 414.102.30      11.29 414.65
Middlesex FOB2.37 2.44 2.50  N/A      11.09 407.492.21      11.20 411.35

PROCESSORS
Windsor      2.79                     11.51 422.922.48      11.47 421.27

TRANSFER
Hamilton     2.80                     11.52 423.292.60      11.59 425.68
Prescott      N/A                                 2.55      11.54 423.84
Port Colborne N/A                                 2.62      11.61 426.41

Toledo El.   -0.54                     8.18 300.55-0.74      8.24 302.84


Exchange rate was 1.3509 up 0.0030
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower to lower.
JUL19      HI     5.21  3/4             JUL19   HI      5.21  3/4
           LOW    4.87  1/2                     LOW     4.87  1/2
           CLOSE  4.90  1/2  Down 14 1/4        CLOSE   4.90  1/2  Down 14 1/4

Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
JUL19      HI         5.68              SEP19   HI      5.75  1/2
           LOW        5.43                      LOW        5.51
           CLOSE  5.48  3/4  Down 8 3/4         CLOSE   5.56  3/4  Down 8

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.72          1.79            1.59          0.98
CAD $/bu              6.63          6.69            6.49          6.47
CAD $/tonne         243.47        245.95          238.51        237.64


Direct MarkHarvest 2018                 Harvest 2019
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    1.50    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.45    N/A
London      1.62    2.02   1.55    N/A    1.67    2.00   1.60    N/A
Hensall     1.65    N/A    1.45    N/A    1.65    N/A    1.45    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.50    N/A
Bruce       1.60    1.95   1.50    N/A    1.60    1.90   1.50   1.10
Essex        N/A    N/A    1.50    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.50    N/A
Norwich     1.65    N/A    1.45    N/A    1.65    N/A    1.45    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     1.75   1.50    N/A
Kent Bridge 1.65    N/A    1.45    N/A    1.65    N/A    1.45    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    1.50    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.50    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    1.50    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.50    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.95   1.55   1.10    N/A     1.98   1.58   1.00
Varna       1.75    1.95   1.55    N/A    1.60    1.90   1.50    N/A
Mitchell    1.65    1.80   1.45    N/A    1.65    1.80   1.45    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   1.59    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.60   1.35   0.75    N/A     1.93   1.58   0.99
W O Feed                   1.98

TERMINAL
Port Colbor  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    2.02    2.36   1.89    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.79    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.79    N/A

Toledo El. 4.83US         6.52CA        4.83US          6.52CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.79          2.13            1.65          1.21
CAD $/bu              6.69          7.03            6.56          6.78
CAD $/tonne         245.95        258.36          240.99        249.05

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal            497.15
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      205.00

---

Ontario Grain Market Commentary for May 29, 2019
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario

Futures Prices as of close, May 29, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 4.19 ↑ 25 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 8.72 ↑ 70 cents
Wheat CBOT July 5.47 ↑ 57 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.47 ↑ 23 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.53 ↑ 21 cents
Oats CBOT July 3.15 ↑ 05 cents
Canadian $ Jun 0.7402 ↓ 0.55 points


Corn:
The July futures saw a run of 65 cents this week before settling 40 cents higher at $4.19 on the July futures. This was on the back of the red buy signal which, as indicated, I received two weeks ago. The July futures show major resistance at the $4.40 level and we should settle back to at least $4.05 before we resume the run higher. If the $4 level is breached and we close below there in the next day or two, we could see a more prolonged correction down to the next support at $3.85.
Support is now seen at $3.75 - $3.85 and our overhead resistance is now $4.40 on the July futures. All indicators are now positive with both short and intermediate trends seeing red buy signals. The primary trend is now neutral. A close above the $4.50 level could turn this market bullish.

Soybeans:
Soybeans rallied along with its counterparts this week as it took aim at our major overhead resistance that we have mentioned many times before. This $8.80 - $9.25 level is major resistance and will take a bit of work and some positive news to penetrate before the fall harvest. For the time being we should see the $8 - $9 trading range stay intact barring any surprises. We are still eyeing the $7.80 - $8 levels on July for major support. This $9.25 overhead resistance should prove to be significant and will take an unexpected event to clear that level on the futures before harvest.
All indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat:
Wheat gained 40 cents on the week as it blew through our $5-resistance level and gapped 20 cents higher on the July futures opening on May 29 before settling back to close below $5 at the $4.88 level on July. This explosive move took us to another upside target of $5.20 which marks the beginning of the major resistance at $5.20 - $5.60. The strong outside day on May 29, suggests a short term top is in place.
We should see more corrective pressure in the coming days. The first support level is $4.50 - $4.70 on July. The charts suggest the stage is being set for what could be a banner year for wheat prices. There are many who are having issues with their crops, but as far as price is concerned, we could see a strong year if the current issues continue into June. Our next upside target is $5.40 followed by a much bigger challenge of $6 on the lead futures price. Closing above the $6.10 pivot on the lead month futures, would confirm to me as an analyst that we now have a bull market on our hands. Our red buy signal from May 1 is still very much intact and the primary trend is still neutral to bullish.
Indicators are positive with a primary trend neutral to bullish.
The solid support displayed at the $4.20 trend line on May 13 was another confirmation our long standing opinion that the August 2016 lows of $3.60 was the bottom of this 11-year cycle in wheat.

Harvest 2019 prices as of the close, May 29, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $245.79/MT ($6.69/bu), HRW @ $258.21/MT ($7.03/bu),
 HRS @ $249.27/MT ($6.78/bu),  SRW @ $240.83/MT ($6.55/bu).
-----

Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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