[Farmmarketnews] Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Wed May 22 16:08:29 EDT 2019

Ontario Grain Market Commentary for May 22, 2019

By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario

Futures Prices as of close, May 22, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 3.94 ↑ 25 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 8.28 ↓ 07 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.72 ↑ 25 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.43 ↑ 23 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.32 ↑ 31 cents
Oats CBOT July 3.10 ↑ 20 cents
Canadian $ Jun 0.7452 ↑ 0.05 points

Corn:
The July futures catapulted on short covering after the expiry of the May futures. We immediately headed toward the overhead resistance mentioned in our last commentary at the $3.80 - $4 level. We hit a high of $3.96 before settling back to the $3.94 on July. We did, however, receive a red buy signal last week, but I feel we will rest before we try the $4 resistance again. The markets have taken on a bullish tone although most of it can be contributed to fund buying to lock in their profits.
Good support is now seen at $3.60 and our overhead resistance is now $4 - $4.20 on the July futures. However, I expect a move back to the $3.60 range in the coming week before we challenge the $4.20 trend line. All indicators are mixed with both short and intermediate trends seeing red buy signals. The primary trend is still down.

Soybeans:
Soybeans did not fare as well as the other grains and continue to be pressured. We are still eyeing the $7.80 - $8 levels on July for support. This overhead resistance should prove to be significant and unless we get convincingly through the $9 level on a close, the chances of us visiting the $8 level once again is compelling.
Support is still at the $7.80 - $8 level on July while the overhead resistance stands at the $8.50 level.
All indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat:
Wheat behaved well this week and as expected rebounded nicely on short covering after the May contract expired. The explosive move took us to our upside target of $.80 and beyond before settling back to close below the resistance. This indicates to me that we may be in for a pullback and consolidation before we attempt the all-important $5 handle on the July contract. We did receive a red buy signal this week which is very encouraging going into the month of June and early harvest. We tested the $4.20 level on the July futures once again before confirming its support with an 80 cent rally.
I am expecting a little more weakness in the coming week and a possible test of the $4.50 level on the July futures.
Good support is still seen at the $4.20 level on the July futures and our overhead challenge is now at the  $5 level on the July futures.  Indicators are mixed with a primary trend being neutral.

Cash Grain prices as of the close, May 22, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $235.75/MT ($6.42/bu), HRW @ $248.09/MT ($6.75/bu),
 HRS @ $245.12/MT ($6.67/bu),  SRW @ $230.83/MT ($6.28/bu).

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Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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