[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Aug 28 15:26:07 EDT 2019
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, August 28
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3297 up 0.0016
Chicago corn closed moderately higher.
SEP19 HI 3.65 1/2 DEC19 HI 3.73 3/4
LOW 3.55 1/4 LOW 3.64 1/4
CLOSE3.62 3/4 Up 5 3/4 CLOSE 3.71 Up 4 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC19+DEC19+DEC19
CK Low 1.95 5.58 219.58 1.30 5.01 197.23
CK High 2.00 5.63 221.54 1.30 5.01 197.23
CK Avg 1.97 0.58 5.59 220.23 1.30 0.07 5.01 197.23
Essex Cty 2.00 5.63 221.54 1.30 5.01 197.23
Mdsx Low 1.95 5.58 219.58 1.30 5.01 197.23
Mdsx High 1.95 5.58 219.58 1.30 5.01 197.23
Mdsx Avg 1.95 0.57 5.58 219.58 1.30 0.07 5.01 197.23
Hensall 1.98 5.60 220.56 1.33 5.04 198.22
Bruce 2.05 5.68 223.51 1.30 5.01 197.23
Putnam 1.95 5.58 219.58 1.30 5.01 197.23
Burford 1.95 5.58 219.58 1.30 5.01 197.23
Port Perry 1.95 5.58 219.58 1.30 5.01 197.23
Norfolk 2.00 5.63 221.54 1.30 5.01 197.23
Palmerston 1.80 5.43 213.67 1.30 5.01 197.23
Varna 1.95 5.58 219.58 1.30 5.01 197.23
Trenton 1.95 5.58 219.58 1.30 5.01 197.23
Winchester N/A 1.40 5.11 201.17
North Gower 1.60 5.23 205.80 1.40 5.11 201.17
Huron FOB 2.03 5.66 222.73 1.30 5.01 197.23
Kent FOB 2.15 5.78 227.45 1.35 5.06 199.20
Lamb FOB 2.00 5.63 221.54 1.40 5.11 201.17
Mdsx FOB 2.15N/A N/A N/A 5.78 227.45 1.30 5.01 197.23
FOB SW Que 2.64 6.27 246.74N/A
Track 2.33 5.95 234.34N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 2.25N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.40 5.11 201.17
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.95N/A N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.55 1.50 1.50 5.21 205.11
W O Feed 2.55 6.18 243.28
US Rep 2.49 6.12 240.84
Toledo El. 0.51 4.13 162.70 0.20 3.91 153.88
TRANSFER
Pt. Colb N/A 1.65 5.36 211.01
Prescott 2.04 5.67 223.12 1.40 5.11201 1/6
MID SD CRN 1.30 5.01
HI SD CRN 1.30 5.01
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3297 up 0.0016
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV19 HI 8.67 3/4 NOV19 HI 8.67 3/4
LOW 8.52 1/2 LOW 8.52 1/2
CLOSE8.65 3/4 Up 6 1/2 CLOSE 8.65 3/4 Up 6 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV19
CK Low 2.15 10.81 397.111.95 10.61 389.76
CK High 2.17 10.83 397.842.07 10.73 394.17
CK Average 2.15 -0.5310.81 397.232.00 -0.6110.66 391.72
Essex Cty 2.15 10.81 397.112.00 10.66 391.60
Mdsx Low 2.10 10.76 395.271.95 10.61 389.76
Mdsx High 2.15 10.81 397.112.00 10.66 391.60
Mdsx Average 2.13 -0.5510.78 396.191.98 -0.6310.63 390.68
Hensall 2.18 10.83 398.031.98 10.63 390.68
Bruce 2.10 10.76 395.271.90 10.56 387.92
Putnam 2.15 10.81 397.111.95 10.61 389.76
Burford 2.15 10.81 397.112.05 10.71 393.43
Port Perry 2.12 10.78 396.012.02 10.68 392.33
Norfolk 2.15 10.81 397.112.00 10.66 391.60
Palmerston 2.25 10.91 400.782.05 10.71 393.43
Varna 2.20 10.86 398.942.00 10.66 391.60
Trenton 2.15 10.81 397.112.05 10.71 393.43
Winchester N/A 2.10 10.76 395.27
North Gower 2.05 10.71 393.432.13 10.79 396.37
Huron FOB 2.35 11.01 404.462.00 10.66 391.60
Kent FOB 2.25 10.91 400.782.00 10.66 391.60
Lambton FOB 2.40 11.06 406.292.15 10.81 397.11
Middlesex FOB2.52 2.52 N/A N/A 11.18 410.702.16 10.82 397.48
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.58 11.24 412.912.38 11.04 405.56
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.70 11.36 417.322.45 11.11 408.13
Prescott N/A 2.40 11.06 406.29
Port Colborne N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.33 8.33 305.89-0.49 8.17 300.09
Exchange rate was 1.3297 up 0.0016
Chicago wheat closed narrowly mixed.
SEP19 HI 4.75 JUL20 HI 4.88 1/4
LOW 4.65 3/4 LOW 4.81 1/2
CLOSE 4.72 1/4 Down 1 1/2 CLOSE 4.86 1/4 Down 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
SEP19 HI 4.96 1/4 SEP20 HI 5.52 1/2
LOW 4.86 1/2 LOW 5.48 1/2
CLOSE 4.87 1/2 Down 6 3/4 CLOSE 5.48 3/4 Down 4 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.02 2.29 1.96 1.21
CAD $/bu 6.74 7.01 6.68 6.08
CAD $/tonne 247.83 257.60 245.39 223.53
Direct MarkHarvest 2019 Harvest 2020
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
London 1.66 1.93 1.60 N/A 1.25 1.38 1.05 N/A
Hensall 1.70 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.10 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.65 N/A N/A N/A 1.25 N/A
Bruce 1.70 2.00 1.60 1.30 1.30 1.50 1.10 0.95
Essex N/A N/A 1.55 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Norwich 1.70 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.10 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.85 1.70 N/A N/A 1.45 1.25 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.70 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.10 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Palmerston N/A 2.00 1.60 1.30 N/A 1.58 1.23 0.95
Varna 1.70 2.00 1.60 N/A 1.30 1.50 1.10 N/A
Mitchell 1.70 1.90 1.60 N/A 1.30 1.50 1.10 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 1.76 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 2.15 1.88 1.23 N/A 1.78 1.46 0.90
W O Feed 2.24
TERMINAL
Port Colbor 2.01 2.28 1.95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Toledo El. 4.93US 6.56CA 4.81US 6.38CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 20 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.52 1.78 1.45 0.99
CAD $/bu 6.38 6.64 6.31 6.48
CAD $/tonne 234.35 244.09 231.92 238.00
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 460.88
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 190.00 - 195.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 28, 2019
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Futures Prices as of close, August 28, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT Dec 3.71 ↑ 01 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.65 ↓ 02 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 4.76 ↑ 09 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.06 ↓ 08 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 4.01 ↑ 08 cents
Oats CBOT Dec 2.65 ↓ 06 cents
Canadian $ Sep 0.7521 ↓ 0.02 points
I have switched to the December charts on all grains for analytics.
Corn: It is almost assured that we will see a re-test of the May lows around $3.50 on the September futures and possibly even the 2019 lows which were close to $3.30 on the weekly charts. This should be the worst-case situation and it is my belief that if we do approach these lows that it will be the final blow-off that I have been expecting since I began writing my reports six years ago.
As depressing as it may seem, this is the traditional way that the market bottoms. It is known as capitulation or throwing in the towel. It is at this juncture in a long-term trend that the market finally gets rid of the baggage and looks forward to the future. Of course, I could be completely wrong in my analysis but my 30+ years has shown me that it takes a watershed moment to finally change direction. Once this is complete, we should see a bullish market develop that will last for years. My only hope is that the reason for the turn in sentiment and prices is positive for all our farmer-members.
Short term indicators for corn are bearish but the primary trend for corn is now neutral.
Soybeans:
Soybeans are following the same path as corn and coming into September, we should see more pressure ahead of the September monthly report. Meanwhile, the $9.25 price on the lead month is the key point to get excited about. Support remains at $8.25 - $8.40 on December futures while another support level is between $7.80 to $8 on the lead month futures.
All indicators remain negative and the primary trend is still down.
Wheat:
As we mentioned in our last commentary, the $4.70 support area on the September futures continues to hold. However, coming into the month of September we could see more pressure on prices as we enter the cash conversion later in the month. We could get several surprises in the amount of downward pressure as we enter September. Based on the December futures, we could see support at the $4.60 level or a drop back to the recent bottom of $4.20 - $4.40. Either way, I expect to see a quick recovery if we drop significantly after the September report is released.
Like the other grains, I am of the opinion that the wheat futures will find a bottom this fall. I base this solely on my technical analysis.
The primary trend is still neutral to bullish.
Harvest 2019 prices as of the close, August 28, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $247.73/MT ($6.74/bu), HRW @ $257.50/MT ($7.01/bu),
HRS @ $223.30/MT ($6.08/bu), SRW @ $245.29/MT ($6.68/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Email:fmnc at uoguelph.ca
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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