[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Aug 22 15:25:08 EDT 2019
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, August 22
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3293 up 0.0011
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
SEP19 HI 3.66 1/2 DEC19 HI 3.74 1/2
LOW 3.59 LOW 3.68
CLOSE3.63 1/4 Up 3/4 CLOSE 3.71 Up 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC19+DEC19+DEC19
CK Low 1.95 5.58 219.77 1.25 4.96 195.27
CK High 2.00 5.63 221.74 1.30 5.01 197.23
CK Avg 1.96 0.57 5.59 220.10 1.28 0.06 4.99 196.58
Essex Cty 2.00 5.63 221.74 1.30 5.01 197.23
Mdsx Low 1.95 5.58 219.77 1.30 5.01 197.23
Mdsx High 1.95 5.58 219.77 1.30 5.01 197.23
Mdsx Avg 1.95 0.57 5.58 219.77 1.30 0.07 5.01 197.23
Hensall 1.95 5.58 219.77 1.33 5.04 198.22
Bruce 1.95 5.58 219.77 1.30 5.01 197.23
Putnam 1.95 5.58 219.77 1.30 5.01 197.23
Burford 1.95 5.58 219.77 1.30 5.01 197.23
Port Perry 1.95 5.58 219.77 1.30 5.01 197.23
Norfolk 2.00 5.63 221.74 1.30 5.01 197.23
Palmerston 1.80 5.43 213.87 1.30 5.01 197.23
Varna 1.90 5.53 217.80 1.30 5.01 197.23
Trenton 1.95 5.58 219.77 1.30 5.01 197.23
Winchester N/A 1.35 5.06 199.20
North Gower 1.55 5.18 204.03 1.40 5.11 201.17
Huron FOB 2.10 5.73 225.68 1.30 5.01 197.23
Kent FOB 2.15 5.78 227.65 1.35 5.06 199.20
Lamb FOB 2.10 5.73 225.68 1.35 5.06 199.20
Mdsx FOB 2.15N/A N/A N/A 5.78 227.65 1.30 5.01 197.23
FOB SW Que 2.65 6.28 247.33 1.33 5.04 198.42
Track 2.35 5.98 235.52N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 2.25N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.40 5.11 201.17
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.95N/A N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.55 1.50 1.50 5.21 205.11
W O Feed 2.56 6.19 243.63
US Rep 2.54 6.17 243.00
Toledo El. 0.51 4.14 162.89 0.20 3.91 153.89
TRANSFER
Pt. Colb N/A 1.65 5.36 211.01
Prescott 2.05 5.68 223.71 1.50 5.21205 1/9
MID SD CRN 1.27 1/2 4.98 1/2
HI SD CRN 1.30 5.01
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3293 up 0.0011
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV19 HI 8.82 NOV19 HI 8.82
LOW 8.67 3/4 LOW 8.67 3/4
CLOSE8.68 3/4 Down 4 1/4 CLOSE 8.68 3/4 Down 4 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV19
CK Low 2.20 10.89 400.052.05 10.74 394.54
CK High 2.30 10.99 403.722.13 10.82 397.48
CK Average 2.24 -0.4610.93 401.642.10 -0.5510.78 396.25
Essex Cty 2.25 10.94 401.882.10 10.79 396.37
Mdsx Low 2.14 10.83 397.842.06 10.75 394.90
Mdsx High 2.30 10.99 403.722.10 10.79 396.37
Mdsx Average 2.22 -0.4810.91 400.782.08 -0.5710.77 395.64
Hensall 2.30 10.99 403.722.10 10.79 396.37
Bruce 2.25 10.94 401.882.05 10.74 394.54
Putnam 2.30 10.99 403.722.10 10.79 396.37
Burford 2.19 10.88 399.682.11 10.80 396.74
Port Perry 2.16 10.85 398.582.08 10.77 395.64
Norfolk 2.25 10.94 401.882.10 10.79 396.37
Palmerston 2.25 10.94 401.882.05 10.74 394.54
Varna 2.30 10.99 403.722.10 10.79 396.37
Trenton 2.15 10.84 398.212.15 10.84 398.21
Winchester N/A 2.03 10.72 393.80
North Gower 2.00 10.69 392.702.18 10.87 399.31
Huron FOB 2.40 11.09 407.402.20 10.89 400.05
Kent FOB 2.35 11.04 405.562.10 10.79 396.37
Lambton FOB 2.15 10.84 398.212.25 10.94 401.88
Middlesex FOB2.53 2.53 N/A N/A 11.22 412.172.18 10.87 399.31
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.60 11.29 414.742.40 11.09 407.40
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.80 11.49 422.092.55 11.24 412.91
Prescott N/A 2.40 11.09 407.40
Port Colborne N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.33 8.36 307.00-0.49 8.20 301.19
Exchange rate was 1.3293 up 0.0011
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP19 HI 4.70 1/2 JUL20 HI 4.88
LOW 4.60 3/4 LOW 4.80 3/4
CLOSE 4.67 1/4 Up 4 3/4 CLOSE 4.85 3/4 Up 2
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP19 HI 5.03 3/4 SEP20 HI 5.58 1/4
LOW 4.97 3/4 LOW 5.55
CLOSE 4.98 1/2 Down 3 3/4 CLOSE 5.55 3/4 Down 2 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.00 2.27 1.94 1.24
CAD $/bu 6.68 6.94 6.61 6.23
CAD $/tonne 245.31 255.08 242.87 228.82
Direct MarkHarvest 2019 Harvest 2020
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
London 1.64 1.91 1.58 N/A 1.24 1.38 1.04 N/A
Hensall 1.70 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.10 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.20 N/A
Bruce 1.70 2.00 1.60 1.30 1.30 1.50 1.10 N/A
Essex N/A N/A 1.55 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Norwich 1.70 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.10 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.85 1.65 N/A N/A 1.45 1.20 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.70 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.10 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Palmerston N/A 2.00 1.60 1.30 N/A 1.58 1.23 0.95
Varna 1.70 2.00 1.60 N/A 1.30 1.50 1.10 N/A
Mitchell 1.70 1.90 1.60 N/A 1.30 1.50 1.10 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 1.54 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 2.15 1.88 1.15 N/A 1.78 1.46 0.90
W O Feed 2.26
TERMINAL
Port Colbor 1.98 2.25 1.92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Toledo El. 4.87US 6.48CA 4.81US 6.37CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 20 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.52 1.78 1.45 1.01
CAD $/bu 6.37 6.64 6.31 6.57
CAD $/tonne 234.18 243.93 231.75 241.49
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 460.44
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 190.00 - 195.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 22, 2019
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Futures Prices as of close, August 22, 2019
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT Sep 3.62 ↑ 03 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 8.56 ↓ 09 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 4.67 ↓ 07 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 4.98 ↓ 06 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 3.93 ↑ 08 cents
Oats CBOT Sep 2.65 ↓ 12 cents
Canadian $ Sep 0.7521 ↓ 0.10 points
Corn:
It was not a good week for corn or any of the grains. I continue to believe that this is the purge I have been expecting. If so, things could get worse before they improve. The charts suggest a test of the $3.50 level on the September futures at the best. If we continue seeing weakness into next week, we could see the September futures come under severe pressure as the first notice day approaches. The positive spin on this move is that it could well be the end of an eight-year bear market. Only time will tell.
The primary trend for corn is now neutral.
Soybeans:
There is not much to add to the soybean story. Soybean prices have been under pressure for as long as I can remember. The capitulation necessary to turn this massive bear around may be coming this fall. But until we see evidence, the trend remains bearish as it has for the past seven years. We will keep a close watch on the chart action if I see a reason to think this will change anytime soon. Meanwhile the $9.25 price on the lead month is the key point to get excited about. Support remains at $8.40 and $7.80 while overhead resistance is at the $9.40 on September futures.
All indicators remain negative and the primary trend is still down.
Wheat:
We have been flirting with the $4.70 support area on the September futures for the past week and even though we haven’t broken to the downside from that level, I have received a red sell signal for the weekly charts. This is a signal that my next support of $4.20 on the lead month will be challenged in the coming weeks.
Like the other grains, I am of the opinion that the wheat futures will find a bottom this fall. I base this solely on my technical analysis.
I still feel we are in the bottoming action of a multi-year bear market based on the volatility we are experiencing, and I feel the markets will turn bullish for the next several years once this shakeout phase is complete later this year.
Overhead resistance on September remains at the recent highs of $5.50 - $5.60, while major support is pegged at $4 - $4.20 on the lead month futures.
The primary trend is neutral to bullish.
Harvest 2019 prices as of the close, August 22, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $245.12/MT ($6.67/bu), HRW @ $254.89/MT ($6.94/bu),
HRS @ $228.52/MT ($6.22/bu), SRW @ $242.68/MT ($6.60/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Email:fmnc at uoguelph.ca
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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