[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Aug 14 15:29:13 EDT 2019
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, August 14
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3313 up 0.0103
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.
SEP19 HI 3.70 1/2 DEC19 HI 3.81
LOW 3.58 1/2 LOW 3.70
CLOSE3.59 Down 7 CLOSE 3.70 1/4 Down 6 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC19+DEC19+DEC19
CK Low 1.85 5.44 214.16 1.25 4.95 194.97
CK High 2.05 5.64 222.04 1.30 5.00 196.94
CK Avg 1.93 0.74 5.52 217.12 1.26 0.05 4.96 195.30
Essex Cty 2.05 5.64 222.04 1.30 5.00 196.94
Mdsx Low 1.90 5.49 216.13 1.25 4.95 194.97
Mdsx High 1.90 5.49 216.13 1.25 4.95 194.97
Mdsx Avg 1.90 0.71 5.49 216.13 1.25 0.04 4.95 194.97
Hensall 1.93 5.52 217.12 1.30 5.00 196.94
Bruce 1.90 5.49 216.13 1.30 5.00 196.94
Putnam 1.90 5.49 216.13 1.25 4.95 194.97
Burford 1.90 5.49 216.13 1.25 4.95 194.97
Port Perry 1.90 5.49 216.13 1.25 4.95 194.97
Norfolk 2.05 5.64 222.04 1.30 5.00 196.94
Palmerston 1.73 5.32 209.44 1.23 4.93 194.18
Varna 1.90 5.49 216.13 1.30 5.00 196.94
Trenton 1.90 5.49 216.13 1.30 5.00 196.94
Winchester N/A 1.40 5.10 200.88
North Gower 1.50 5.09 200.38 1.40 5.10 200.88
Huron FOB 2.10 5.69 224.01 1.35 5.05 198.91
Kent FOB 2.20 5.79 227.94 1.35 5.05 198.91
Lamb FOB 2.00 5.59 220.07 1.35 5.05 198.91
Mdsx FOB 2.10N/A N/A N/A 5.69 224.01 1.45 5.15 202.84
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 2.35 5.94 233.85N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A 2.47 2.47 1.55 1.55 5.25 206.78
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 2.35 2.35N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.40 5.10 200.88
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.95N/A N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A 1.80 1.75 1.75* 5.45 214.66
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.55 1.50 1.50 5.20 204.81
W O Feed 2.53 2.09 6.12 241.09
US Rep 2.51 2.07 6.10 240.15
Toledo El. 0.51 4.10 161.25 0.20 3.90 153.60
TRANSFER
Pt. Colb N/A 1.65 5.35 210.72
Prescott 2.05 5.64 222.04 1.50 5.20204 4/5
MID SD CRN 1.27 1/2 4.97 3/4
HI SD CRN 1.30 5.00 1/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3313 up 0.0103
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.
NOV19 HI 8.93 1/2 NOV19 HI 8.93 1/2
LOW 8.77 1/4 LOW 8.77 1/4
CLOSE8.78 Down 11 CLOSE 8.78 Down 11
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV19
CK Low 2.12 10.90 400.512.05 10.83 397.93
CK High 2.20 10.98 403.452.10 10.88 399.77
CK Average 2.18 -0.5510.96 402.652.08 -0.5910.86 399.16
Essex Cty 2.20 10.98 403.452.10 10.88 399.77
Mdsx Low 2.10 10.88 399.772.03 10.81 397.20
Mdsx High 2.20 10.98 403.452.10 10.88 399.77
Mdsx Average 2.15 -0.5710.93 401.612.07 -0.6110.85 398.49
Hensall 2.23 11.01 404.362.10 10.88 399.77
Bruce 2.20 10.98 403.452.05 10.83 397.93
Putnam 2.20 10.98 403.452.10 10.88 399.77
Burford 2.15 10.93 401.612.08 10.86 399.04
Port Perry 2.12 10.90 400.512.05 10.83 397.93
Norfolk 2.20 10.98 403.452.10 10.88 399.77
Palmerston 2.15 10.93 401.612.10 10.88 399.77
Varna 2.25 11.03 405.282.10 10.88 399.77
Trenton 2.10 10.88 399.772.05 10.83 397.93
Winchester N/A 2.20 10.98 403.45
North Gower 1.88 10.66 391.692.05 10.83 397.93
Huron FOB 2.35 11.13 408.962.20 10.98 403.45
Kent FOB 2.30 11.08 407.122.10 10.88 399.77
Lambton FOB 2.25 11.03 405.282.25 11.03 405.28
Middlesex FOB2.32 2.32 N/A N/A 11.10 407.862.25 11.03 405.28
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.65 11.43 419.982.45 11.23 412.63
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.75 11.53 423.652.55 11.33 416.31
Prescott N/A 2.40 11.18 410.79
Port Colborne N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.27 8.51 312.83-0.53 8.25 303.11
Exchange rate was 1.3313 up 0.0103
Chicago wheat closed mixed.
SEP19 HI 4.80 JUL20 HI 5.01
LOW 4.71 1/4 LOW 4.93 1/4
CLOSE 4.73 3/4 Up 1 3/4 CLOSE 4.93 3/4 Down 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP19 HI 5.08 SEP20 HI 5.64
LOW 5.03 LOW 5.62
CLOSE 5.05 1/2 Up 2 1/4 CLOSE 5.62 3/4 Up 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.04 2.30 1.97 1.28
CAD $/bu 6.77 7.04 6.71 6.33
CAD $/tonne 248.86 258.65 246.42 232.60
Direct MarkHarvest 2019 Harvest 2020
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.15 N/A
London 1.69 1.96 1.63 N/A 1.30 1.43 1.10 N/A
Hensall 1.70 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.10 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.70 N/A N/A N/A 1.20 N/A
Bruce 1.70 2.00 1.60 1.30 1.30 1.50 1.10 N/A
Essex N/A N/A 1.55 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Norwich 1.70 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.10 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.90 1.70 N/A N/A 1.50 1.20 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.70 N/A 1.60 N/A 1.30 N/A 1.10 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Palmerston N/A 2.18 1.64 1.20 N/A 1.63 1.09 0.90
Varna 1.70 2.00 1.60 N/A 1.30 1.50 1.10 N/A
Mitchell 1.70 1.90 1.60 N/A 1.30 1.50 1.10 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 1.58 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 2.15 1.90 1.15 N/A 1.73 1.48 0.90
W O Feed 2.30
TERMINAL
Port Colbor 2.03 2.30 1.96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Toledo El. 4.94US 6.57CA 4.89US 6.49CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 20 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.55 1.81 1.48 1.04
CAD $/bu 6.49 6.75 6.42 6.67
CAD $/tonne 238.30 248.05 235.86 245.13
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 455.92
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 190.00 - 195.00
--
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 14, 2019
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT Sep 3.59 ↓ 50 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 8.65 ↑ 11 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 4.74 ↑ 13 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.06 ↓ 15 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 3.85 ↓ 25 cents
Oats CBOT Sep 2.77 ↑ 08 cents
Canadian $ Sep 0.7511 ↓ 0.00 points
Corn:
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on August 12 took no prisoners. Corn hit its 25 cent limit down and locked during the daytime session only to find follow-through selling in the evening session. Our $3.70 support was destroyed, and we received a red sell signal on the weekly chart which is significant. Where do we go from here you ask? My guess is we will have a tough time getting past the $3.85 gap left in the wake of this washout. It seems almost certain that the contract lows of $3.50 on the September futures will be revisited in the near future.
The primary trend for corn is now neutral.
Soybeans:
Soybeans delivered the biggest surprise in the monthly report as prices held relatively solid through the onslaught of falling corn and wheat prices. On the charts, soybeans look the least affected. I would expect to see a continuation of the same range-bound trade in the coming weeks, between $8.40 and $9.40 levels on the September futures. Our overhead resistance is substantial at the $9.25 - $9.50 level on the September futures.
All indicators are negative and the primary trend is still down.
Wheat:
Surprisingly, wheat fared much better than corn as we are still holding at our initial $4.70 support level on the September futures even though it was temporarily lower to $4.65. This is good enough to suggest we may see sideways to slightly higher prices in the coming weeks.
If political issues continue to outweigh the weather issues, we may eventually see a move towards our solid support level of $4 - $4.20 before September goes off the board.
I still feel we are in the bottoming action of a multi-year bear market based on the volatility we are experiencing and I feel the markets will turn bullish for the next several years once this shakeout phase is complete this later this year.
Overhead resistance on September remains at the recent highs of $5.50 - $5.60, while major support is pegged at $4 - $4.20 on the lead month futures.
Indicators are positive with a primary trend that is neutral to bullish.
Harvest 2019 prices as of the close, August 14, 2019 are as follows:
SWW @ $249.00/MT ($6.78/bu), HRW @ $258.79/MT ($7.04/bu),
HRS @ $232.86/MT ($6.34/bu), SRW @ $246.56/MT ($6.71/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Email:fmnc at uoguelph.ca
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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