[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Aug 9 15:15:33 EDT 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, August 9
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3028 up 0.0020
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
SEP18 HI 3.72 3/4 DEC18 HI 3.86 1/2
LOW 3.66 1/2 LOW 3.80 1/4
CLOSE3.69 1/4 Down 2 CLOSE 3.82 3/4 Down 2 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC18+DEC18+DEC18
CK Low 1.15 4.84 190.64 0.90 4.73 186.11
CK High 1.25 4.94 194.58 1.00 4.83 190.05
CK Avg 1.20 0.06 4.89 192.61 0.95 -0.15 4.78 188.08
Essex Cty 1.20 4.89 192.61 0.95 4.78 188.08
Mdsx Low 1.20 4.89 192.61 0.95 4.78 188.08
Mdsx High 1.20 4.89 192.61 1.00 4.83 190.05
Mdsx Avg 1.20 0.06 4.89 192.61 0.98 -0.13 4.80 189.07
Hensall 1.20 4.89 192.61 1.00 4.83 190.05
Bruce 1.20 4.89 192.61 1.00 4.83 190.05
Putnam 1.20 4.89 192.61 0.95 4.78 188.08
Burford 1.20 4.89 192.61 0.95 4.78 188.08
Port Perry 1.20 4.89 192.61 0.95 4.78 188.08
Norfolk 1.20 4.89 192.61 0.95 4.78 188.08
Palmerston 1.15 4.84 190.64 0.90 4.73 186.11
Varna 1.20 4.89 192.61 1.00 4.83 190.05
Trenton 1.25 4.94 194.58 1.00 4.83 190.05
Winchester 1.20 4.89 192.61 1.20 5.03 197.92
North Gower 1.15 4.84 190.64 1.15 4.98 195.96
Huron FOB 1.37 5.06 199.30 1.00 4.83 190.05
Kent FOB 1.40 5.09 200.48 0.95 4.78 188.08
Lamb FOB 1.35 5.04 198.51 0.95 4.78 188.08
Mdsx FOB 1.30 1.35N/A N/A 4.99 196.55 0.95 4.78 188.08
FOB SW Que 1.68 5.37 211.51N/A
Track 1.50 5.19 204.42N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A 1.64 1.18 1.18 5.01 197.14
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.55 1.60 1.20 1.20 5.03 197.92
Sarn-Eth 1.35 1.30N/A 1.10 5.04 198.51 1.10 4.93 193.99
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.60 1.20 1.20 5.03 197.92
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.40* 5.23 205.80
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.60 1.30 1.30 5.13 201.86
W O Feed 1.64 5.34 210.09
US Rep 1.63 5.32 209.54
Toledo El. -0.04 3.65 143.83 -0.26 3.57 140.46
MID SD CRN 0.95 4.77 3/4
HI SD CRN 1.00 4.82 3/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3028 up 0.0020
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV18 HI 9.14 1/2 NOV18 HI 9.14 1/2
LOW 9.02 1/4 LOW 9.02 1/4
CLOSE9.04 Down 6 1/2 CLOSE 9.04 Down 6 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV18
CK Low 2.55 11.59 425.862.65 11.69 429.53
CK High 2.75 11.79 433.212.75 11.79 433.21
CK Average 2.62 -0.0911.66 428.432.73 0.03 11.77 432.53
Essex Cty 2.60 11.64 427.702.75 11.79 433.21
Mdsx Low 2.60 11.64 427.702.75 11.79 433.21
Mdsx High 2.65 11.69 429.532.77 11.81 433.94
Mdsx Average 2.63 -0.0911.67 428.622.76 0.05 11.80 433.58
Hensall 2.58 11.62 426.782.70 11.74 431.37
Bruce 2.55 11.59 425.862.65 11.69 429.53
Putnam 2.60 11.64 427.702.75 11.79 433.21
Burford 2.69 11.73 431.002.81 11.85 435.41
Port Perry 2.62 11.66 428.432.74 11.78 432.84
Norfolk 2.60 11.64 427.702.75 11.79 433.21
Palmerston 2.60 11.64 427.702.65 11.69 429.53
Varna N/A 2.65 11.69 429.53
Trenton N/A 2.75 11.79 433.21
Winchester 2.70 11.74 431.372.80 11.84 435.05
North Gower 2.39 11.43 419.982.70 11.74 431.37
Huron FOB 2.65 11.69 429.532.75 11.79 433.21
Kent FOB 2.65 11.69 429.532.75 11.79 433.21
Lambton FOB 2.80 11.84 435.052.85 11.89 436.88
Middlesex FOB2.82 2.82 N/A N/A 11.86 435.782.81 11.85 435.41
PROCESSORS
Windsor 3.00 12.04 442.393.00 12.04 442.39
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 3.05 12.09 444.23
Prescott 2.09 11.13 408.962.86 11.90 437.25
Toledo El. -0.13 8.91 327.38-0.39 8.65 317.86
Exchange rate was 1.3028 up 0.0020
Chicago wheat closed mixed.
SEP18 HI 5.73 3/4 JUL19 HI 6.12
LOW 5.61 3/4 LOW 6.00 3/4
CLOSE 5.64 1/2 Down 5 1/2 CLOSE 6.04 1/4 Down 5
Minni wheat closed narrowly mixed.
SEP18 HI 6.35 SEP19 HI 6.61 3/4
LOW 6.23 1/4 LOW 6.48 3/4
CLOSE 6.29 3/4 Down 3 CLOSE 6.59 1/4 Up 1 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.32 1.51 1.45 0.80
CAD $/bu 6.96 7.16 7.09 7.10
CAD $/tonne 255.86 263.04 260.64 260.76
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
London 1.24 1.44 0.98 N/A 1.35 1.35 1.03 N/A
Hensall 1.10 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.05 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Bruce 1.10 1.30 1.05 0.60 1.15 1.25 1.05 0.60
Essex N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 1.06 N/A
Norwich 1.10 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.05 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.20 1.05 N/A N/A 1.20 1.05 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.10 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.05 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.15 1.05 0.55 N/A 1.10 1.05 N/A
Varna 1.25 1.30 1.05 N/A 1.15 1.25 1.05 N/A
Mitchell 1.10 1.20 1.05 N/A 1.20 1.25 1.05 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.46 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.40 1.35 0.70 N/A 1.26 1.31 0.50
W O Feed 1.63
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.97 N/A N/A N/A 1.93 N/A
Toledo El. 5.72US 7.45CA 5.89US 7.65CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.34 1.41 1.41 0.60
CAD $/bu 7.39 7.45 7.45 7.19
CAD $/tonne 271.43 273.81 273.81 264.28
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 519.86
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 190.00
----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 8, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, August 8, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.71 ↑ 05 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 8.99 ↑ 08 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 5.70 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 6.33 ↑ 25 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 5.84 ↑ 19 cents
Chicago Oats Sep 2.64 ↑ 25 cents
Canadian $ Sep .76910 ↓ 0.08 points
Corn:
This week was quiet in the corn futures as the price was stable ahead of the August 10 report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Our indicators are mixed with the short term indicator showing a possible move towards the $3.80 - $3.90 level on the September contract while the weekly indicators are still showing downward pressure in the form of a pull- back in the coming weeks.
Current resistance is still at the $3.80 - $3.90 level on the September contract with much tougher resistance at the $4.00-level on the lead month futures. Major support is still seen at the $3.40 level.
Short term indicators are now positive but the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
After hitting our $9.10 target last week, soybeans have stalled in the futures contract price. We have a USDA report on Friday August 10 and this could be an important indicator for future prices. We also received a red buy signal on July 30 which looks positive for the short haul.
Short term indicators are looking positive with immediate overhead resistance at the $9.40 - $9.60 level while initial support is seen at the $8.75 level based on the September futures. Our $8.20 lows are very critical at this point and a retest of this area, although not expected, would not be a good sign technically. The primary trend remains down.
Wheat:
Wheat had another good week hitting our anticipated $5.80 - $6 target from our last commentary ($5.94 to be exact) before settling back to the $5.70 range on the September futures contract. This completes our projected move from our comments since we outlined it back in early July. This, of course, does not mean we cannot go higher, but my feeling is that unless we get a big surprise in the August 10 report, we will not do much better than $6 on the September futures before starting a protracted correction that can last for weeks. If on the other hand, we do get a breakout to the upside by a surprise report, we could expect an exaggerated move to the upside, possibly from a short covering rally and then the correction.
Support is now seen at the $5.20 - $5.30 area, while overhead resistance is pegged at the $6 area based on the September futures. A breakout short covering rally on a surprise in the report could extend this move towards the $6.25 level on the September futures.
Short and intermediate term indicators are positive and the primary trend is bullish with the potential of a correction back toward the $5 price point based on the September futures.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, August 8, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $258.02/MT ($7.02/bu), HRW @ $265.19/MT ($7.22/bu),
HRS @ $261.84/MT ($7.13/bu), SRW @ $262.80/MT ($7.15/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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