[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Aug 23 15:23:49 EDT 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, August 23
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3082 up 0.0080
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.
SEP18 HI 3.55 DEC18 HI 3.69 1/2
LOW 3.46 1/4 LOW 3.60 1/2
CLOSE3.46 3/4 Down 5 3/4 CLOSE 3.61 Down 5 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC18+DEC18+DEC18
CK Low 1.20 4.67 183.75 0.90 4.51 177.55
CK High 1.25 4.72 185.72 0.95 4.56 179.52
CK Avg 1.23 0.12 4.69 184.74 0.92 -0.14 4.53 178.21
Essex Cty 1.25 4.72 185.72 0.95 4.56 179.52
Mdsx Low 1.20 4.67 183.75 0.90 4.51 177.55
Mdsx High 1.20 4.67 183.75 0.90 4.51 177.55
Mdsx Avg 1.20 0.10 4.67 183.75 0.90 -0.15 4.51 177.55
Hensall 1.23 4.69 184.74 0.93 4.54 178.54
Bruce 1.25 4.72 185.72 0.95 4.56 179.52
Putnam 1.20 4.67 183.75 0.90 4.51 177.55
Burford 1.20 4.67 183.75 0.90 4.51 177.55
Port Perry 1.20 4.67 183.75 0.90 4.51 177.55
Norfolk 1.25 4.72 185.72 0.95 4.56 179.52
Palmerston 1.25 4.72 185.72 0.90 4.51 177.55
Varna 1.25 4.72 185.72 0.95 4.56 179.52
Trenton 1.30 4.77 187.69 1.00 4.61 181.49
Winchester 1.20 4.67 183.75 1.20 4.81 189.36
North Gower 1.20 4.67 183.75 1.20 4.81 189.36
Huron FOB 1.40 4.87 191.63 1.00 4.61 181.49
Kent FOB 1.45 4.92 193.59 0.97 4.58 180.31
Lamb FOB 1.45 4.92 193.59 1.00 4.61 181.49
Mdsx FOB 1.45N/A N/A N/A 4.92 193.59 1.05 4.66 183.46
FOB SW Que 1.92 5.39 212.10N/A
Track 1.53 4.99 196.55N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.50 1.20 1.20 4.81 189.36
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.30N/A 1.10 1.10 4.71 185.42
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.60 1.25 1.25 4.86 191.33
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.45* 5.06 199.20
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.60 1.35 1.35 4.96 195.27
W O Feed 1.80 5.27 207.45
US Rep 1.58 5.05 198.71
Toledo El. -0.13 3.34 131.36 -0.33 3.28 129.30
MID SD CRN 0.92 1/2 4.53 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.95 4.561
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3082 up 0.0080
Chicago soybeans closed moderately lower.
NOV18 HI 8.73 3/4 NOV18 HI 8.73 3/4
LOW 8.53 3/4 LOW 8.53 3/4
CLOSE8.54 Down 16 1/4 CLOSE 8.54 Down 16 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV18
CK Low 2.45 10.99 403.812.63 11.17 410.43
CK High 2.60 11.14 409.322.75 11.29 414.84
CK Average 2.52 -0.0911.06 406.392.67 0.07 11.21 411.96
Essex Cty 2.50 11.04 405.652.65 11.19 411.16
Mdsx Low 2.50 11.04 405.652.65 11.19 411.16
Mdsx High 2.55 11.09 407.492.66 11.20 411.53
Mdsx Average 2.53 -0.0811.07 406.572.66 0.05 11.20 411.35
Hensall 2.55 11.09 407.492.68 11.22 412.08
Bruce 2.65 11.19 411.162.75 11.29 414.84
Putnam 2.60 11.14 409.322.70 11.24 413.00
Burford 2.59 11.13 408.962.70 11.24 413.00
Port Perry 2.52 11.06 406.392.63 11.17 410.43
Norfolk 2.50 11.04 405.652.65 11.19 411.16
Palmerston 2.55 11.09 407.492.70 11.24 413.00
Varna N/A 2.70 11.24 413.00
Trenton N/A 2.70 11.24 413.00
Winchester 2.39 10.93 401.612.61 11.15 409.69
North Gower 2.28 10.82 397.572.70 11.24 413.00
Huron FOB 2.70 11.24 413.002.80 11.34 416.67
Kent FOB 2.55 11.09 407.492.65 11.19 411.16
Lambton FOB 3.00 11.54 424.023.00 11.54 424.02
Middlesex FOB2.72 2.72 2.75 2.88 11.26 413.732.75 11.29 414.84
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.89 11.43 419.983.02 11.56 424.76
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 2.95 11.49 422.19
Prescott 2.09 10.63 390.592.88 11.42 419.61
Toledo El. -0.46 8.08 296.97-0.39 8.15 299.43
Exchange rate was 1.3082 up 0.0080
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP18 HI 5.35 1/2 JUL19 HI 5.80
LOW 5.15 1/2 LOW 5.64 1/2
CLOSE 5.22 Down 4 CLOSE 5.70 3/4 Down 2 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP18 HI 5.90 SEP19 HI 6.30
LOW 5.79 1/2 LOW 6.24
CLOSE 5.81 3/4 Down 4 1/2 CLOSE 6.25 1/2 Down 2 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.22 1.41 1.22 0.68
CAD $/bu 6.44 6.63 6.44 6.50
CAD $/tonne 236.50 243.71 236.50 238.78
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.00 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
London 1.12 1.32 0.99 N/A 1.26 1.26 0.94 N/A
Hensall 1.10 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.00 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.95 N/A N/A N/A 0.95 N/A
Bruce 1.05 1.25 1.00 0.60 1.10 1.20 1.00 0.60
Essex N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 0.99 N/A
Norwich 1.10 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.00 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.20 1.00 N/A N/A 1.20 1.00 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.10 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.00 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.00 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.00 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.15 1.05 0.55 N/A 1.10 1.05 N/A
Varna 1.20 1.35 1.00 N/A 1.10 1.25 1.00 N/A
Mitchell 1.10 1.20 1.00 N/A 1.20 1.25 1.00 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.25 1.08 0.60 N/A 1.22 1.15 0.45
W O Feed 1.67
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.87 N/A N/A N/A 1.86 N/A
Toledo El. 5.27US 6.89CA 5.56US 7.24CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.27 1.34 1.27 0.53
CAD $/bu 6.98 7.05 6.98 6.78
CAD $/tonne 256.47 258.86 256.47 249.17
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 491.31
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 195.00 - 200.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 22, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, August 22, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.52 ↓ 08 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 8.58 ↑ 01 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 5.26 ↓ 05 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.86 ↓ 02 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 5.30 ↑ 19 cents
Chicago Oats Sep 2.60 ↑ 11 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7693 ↑ 0.80 points
Corn:
Our last report indicated we could see a move towards the $3.80 level on the September contract. We came to the $3.75 level on two occasions before succumbing to stiff selling pressure. We have since moved back to the $3.50 level on September.
We could see a sideways move as we progress into September and get closer to harvest. The charts appear to be setting up a pattern to suggest that we will be seeing higher prices as we move through the harvest and into 2019.
Meanwhile, our current resistance is still at the $3.80 level on the September contract with much tougher resistance at the $4 level on the lead month futures.
My long term indicators are now neutral and awaiting direction once we get through the harvest of 2018. Our magic number for a reversal in trend still sits near the $4.40 level on the lead month futures at the time we approach that level.
Solid support is still seen at the $3.30 level on the lead month futures.
Short term indicators are neutral but the primary trend is neutral.
Soybeans:
We continue to build a flag on our weekly charts which could lead to much lower prices coming into harvest. This formation is bordered by $8 on the downside and $9.20 on the upside. Indications are that we need to break above the $9.20 level on the lead month futures to negate this flag. A failure to hold the $8 bottom could see prices move as much as a dollar lower on the futures.
Short term indicators are looking positive with immediate overhead resistance at the $9 Level, while initial support is seen at the $8.20 level based on the September futures. Our $8.20 lows are very critical at this point and a retest of this area, although not expected, would not be a good sign technically. The primary trend remains down.
Wheat:
Since hitting our harvest target price of $5.80 - $6 on the September futures, we are now well into our expected correction and, as of this writing, we have reached the upper level of our forecasted support of $5 - $5.20 on September. We should see a continued correction over the next few weeks.
With options expiring on Friday, August 24, I would expect the wheat market to be quiet on August 23 and 24.
Initial support is seen at the $5 level on September futures while overhead resistance is now back at $6.
Short and intermediate term indicators are still positive and the primary trend is still bullish.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, August 22, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $236.96/MT ($6.45/bu), HRW @ $244.14/MT ($6.64/bu),
HRS @ $239.35/MT ($6.51/bu), SRW @ $236.96/MT ($6.45/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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