[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Sep 9 15:29:31 EDT 2015


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, September 9
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3223 up 0.0028
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.

      DEC15   HI 3.72  1/2                    DEC15    HI 3.72  1/2
             LOW 3.66                                 LOW 3.66
            CLOSE3.69   Up  3/4                     CLOSE 3.69   Up  3/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC15+DEC15+MAR16
CK Low       0.75                        4.44 174.80  0.50         4.19 164.95
CK High      0.80                        4.49 176.76  0.55         4.24 166.92
CK Avg       0.78                  -0.41 4.47 176.11  0.51 -0.69   4.20 165.28
Essex Cty    0.80                        4.49 176.76  0.50         4.19 164.95
Mdsx Low     0.75                        4.44 174.80  0.50         4.19 164.95
Mdsx High    0.80                        4.49 176.76  0.60         4.29 168.89
Mdsx Avg     0.78                  -0.42 4.47 175.78  0.55 -0.65   4.24 166.92
Hensall      0.75                        4.44 174.80  0.63         4.32 169.87
Bruce        0.75                        4.44 174.80  0.50         4.19 164.95
Putnam       0.75                        4.44 174.80  0.50         4.19 164.95
Burford      0.80                        4.49 176.76  0.50         4.19 164.95
Port Perry   0.85                        4.54 178.73  0.55         4.24 166.92
Norfolk      0.80                        4.49 176.76  0.50         4.19 164.95
Palmerston   0.80                        4.49 176.76  0.55         4.24 166.92
Varna        0.65                        4.34 170.86  0.65         4.34 170.86
Trenton      1.75                        5.44 214.16  0.70         4.39 172.83
Winchester   1.70                        5.39 212.19  1.10         4.79 188.57
North Gower  1.10                        4.79 188.57  1.10         4.79 188.57
Huron FOB    1.30                        4.99 196.45  0.70         4.39 172.83
Kent FOB     0.80                        4.49 176.76  0.50         4.19 164.95
Lamb FOB     0.80                        4.49 176.76  0.50         4.19 164.95
Mdsx FOB     0.95N/A   N/A   N/A         4.64 182.67  0.55         4.24 166.92
FOB SW Que  N/A                                     N/A
Track        1.40                        5.09 200.38N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A     0.75                   N/A
Sarn-Eth     1.30  1.30  0.85N/A         4.99 196.45  0.85         4.54 178.73
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing   1.60  1.70  1.05  1.00      5.29 208.26  1.15         4.84 190.54
Pt.Colb-Ing  1.60  1.70N/A   N/A         5.29 208.26  0.95         4.64 182.67
Cardnl-Ing  N/A    1.30  1.35  1.25                   1.30         4.99 196.45
W O Feed     2.01                   1.58 5.70 224.40

US Rep       1.90                   1.47 5.59 220.07
Toledo El.   0.03                        3.72 146.31 -0.26         3.43 134.84

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton    N/A                                     N/A

MID SD CRN                                            0.52   1/2   4.21 1/2
HI SD CRN                                             0.55         4.24
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3223 up 0.0028
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.

       NOV15   HI 8.85  3/4           NOV15    HI 8.85  3/4
              LOW 8.70  3/4                   LOW 8.70  3/4
             CLOSE8.72  1/4  Down 7         CLOSE 8.72  1/4  Down 7

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+NOV1+JAN16
CK Low       2.00                     10.72 393.982.00      10.72 393.98
CK High      2.05                     10.77 395.822.10      10.82 397.66
CK Average   2.02                -0.8110.74 394.792.04 -0.8010.76 395.27
Essex Cty    2.10                     10.82 397.662.10      10.82 397.66
Mdsx Low     1.99                     10.71 393.621.99      10.71 393.62
Mdsx High    2.00                     10.72 393.982.00      10.72 393.98
Mdsx Average 2.00                -0.8410.72 393.802.00 -0.8410.72 393.80
Hensall      2.03                     10.75 394.902.00      10.72 393.98
Bruce        2.00                     10.72 393.981.95      10.67 392.15
Putnam       2.00                     10.72 393.981.95      10.67 392.15
Burford      2.02                     10.74 394.722.02      10.74 394.72
Port Perry   1.99                     10.71 393.621.99      10.71 393.62
Norfolk      2.05                     10.77 395.822.05      10.77 395.82
Palmerston   2.00                     10.72 393.982.00      10.72 393.98
Varna        2.05                     10.77 395.822.00      10.72 393.98
Trenton      2.00                     10.72 393.982.00      10.72 393.98
Winchester   2.30                     11.02 405.012.30      11.02 405.01
North Gower  2.28                     11.00 404.272.28      11.00 404.27
Huron FOB    2.15                     10.87 399.502.10      10.82 397.66
Kent FOB     2.05                     10.77 395.822.05      10.77 395.82
Lambton FOB  2.05                     10.77 395.822.05      10.77 395.82
Middlesex FOB2.22 2.10 2.16  N/A      10.94 402.072.10      10.82 397.66

PROCESSORS
Hamilton      N/A 2.48 2.54 2.56                  2.61      11.33 416.40
Windsor       N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                  N/A
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC      N/A                                  N/A

Toledo El.   -0.04                     8.68 319.04-0.44      8.29 304.43


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3223 up 0.0028
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC15      HI         4.81              JUL16   HI      4.96  1/2
           LOW        4.71                      LOW     4.88  3/4
           CLOSE  4.72  1/4  Down 2 3/4         CLOSE   4.90  1/4  Down 2 1/4

Minni wheat closed narrowly mixed.
DEC15      HI     5.10  3/4             SEP16   HI      5.51  1/2
           LOW    5.02  1/2                     LOW        5.50
           CLOSE  5.05  1/4  Up  1/4            CLOSE   5.51  1/2  Down  3/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 3.65          1.67            1.40          0.78
CAD $/bu              8.38          6.39            6.12          5.83
CAD $/tonne         307.74        234.73          224.99        214.29


Direct MarkHarvest 2015                 Harvest 2016
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    1.30   1.00    N/A    N/A     1.30   0.65    N/A
London      3.28    1.40   0.83    N/A    1.68    1.28   0.48    N/A
Hensall     3.60    N/A    1.00    N/A    1.85    N/A    0.60    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    1.00    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A   0.90    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.35    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A
Norwich     3.60    N/A    1.00    N/A    1.85    N/A    0.60    N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 3.60    N/A    0.40    N/A    1.85    N/A    0.60    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    0.35    N/A    N/A     1.30   0.60    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.35    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.35   1.00   0.60    N/A     1.35   0.65   0.20
Varna       3.60    1.20   1.00    N/A    1.85    1.20   0.60    N/A
Mitchell    3.60    1.20   1.00    N/A    1.85    1.30   0.60    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.36    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.65   1.40   0.77    N/A     1.72   1.25   0.79

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM     4.58N/A        2.13N/A        3.58N/A        1.99N/A

Toledo El. 4.89US         6.48CA        4.72US          6.26CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.59          1.72            0.80          1.26
CAD $/bu              6.49          6.63            5.70          6.78
CAD $/tonne         238.62        243.49          209.42        248.97

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             290.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats              280.00
Bayport Barley            275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            494.40 - 498.80
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      210.00 - 215.00

--

Wednesday, September 9, 2015
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	Dec	3.69	↑	         02	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Nov	8.72	↓	02	cents
Wheat CBOT	Dec	4.72	↓	07	cents
Wheat Minn.	Dec	5.05	↓	03	cents
Wheat Kansas	Dec	4.72	↓	03	cents
Chicago Oats	 Dec	2.33	↑	08	cents 
Canadian $	Dec	.7560	↑	.20	points



CORN:  
On the charts:  Like wheat and soybeans,  corn prices are vulnerable with the monthly United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report looming  on Friday, September 11.  The corn charts, like the others, seem to be above their obvious support levels on the December charts. With the September grain contracts expiring soon, we could see more volatility on these contracts as the open interest is thin. The December contract sees support at the $3.40 - $3.50 level and below that at we are looking towards $3.25.  All indicators are still negative,  the market is still in bear mode, and the trend remains down.   
SOYBEANS:
On the charts:   Our initial support for November soybeans after violating the $9 level was around $8.60.  We managed to reach $8.54 on the last week of August. From here we are now viewing our breakdown level of $9as overhead resistance. If we can climb back over and close above $9 convincingly, we may see an additional rally of 25 to 50 cents. This could coincide with a trading gap on the weekly chart. However, if we fail the support at the $8.50 level, we could see more downside as the September contract is set to expire next week. The next level of support is $8.25 based on the November contract. All indicators are still negative. The September 11 USDA report may cause more volatility than normal.

WHEAT:

On the charts:  As the September contract readies to expire the week of September 18, the December contract is ready to take the helm.  Both contracts found support at or near our anticipated $4.60 support levels.  However, a  negative USDA report could lead to an initial drop after the release which could test our $4.50 trend-line on the December contract and possibly the next major support around $4.25 on our lead month which is still September.  If this was to happen, and we were to recover and close unchanged or higher on that day, we could see a short term bottom. Of course, this is a lot of “if’s” but in my experience as a broker, it takes a situation like that to turn the tides with these markets. Meanwhile, all indicators are still negative. For now, we need to continue treating this as a bear market.



HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE September 9, 2015

SWW @ $307.18/MT ($8.36/bu),  HRW @ $234.27/MT ($6.38/bu), 
HRS @ $213.86/MT ($5.82/bu),  SRW @ $224.55/MT ($6.11/bu).


Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 

-- 
John Jordan 
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

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