[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Sep 9 15:29:31 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, September 9
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3223 up 0.0028
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
DEC15 HI 3.72 1/2 DEC15 HI 3.72 1/2
LOW 3.66 LOW 3.66
CLOSE3.69 Up 3/4 CLOSE 3.69 Up 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC15+DEC15+MAR16
CK Low 0.75 4.44 174.80 0.50 4.19 164.95
CK High 0.80 4.49 176.76 0.55 4.24 166.92
CK Avg 0.78 -0.41 4.47 176.11 0.51 -0.69 4.20 165.28
Essex Cty 0.80 4.49 176.76 0.50 4.19 164.95
Mdsx Low 0.75 4.44 174.80 0.50 4.19 164.95
Mdsx High 0.80 4.49 176.76 0.60 4.29 168.89
Mdsx Avg 0.78 -0.42 4.47 175.78 0.55 -0.65 4.24 166.92
Hensall 0.75 4.44 174.80 0.63 4.32 169.87
Bruce 0.75 4.44 174.80 0.50 4.19 164.95
Putnam 0.75 4.44 174.80 0.50 4.19 164.95
Burford 0.80 4.49 176.76 0.50 4.19 164.95
Port Perry 0.85 4.54 178.73 0.55 4.24 166.92
Norfolk 0.80 4.49 176.76 0.50 4.19 164.95
Palmerston 0.80 4.49 176.76 0.55 4.24 166.92
Varna 0.65 4.34 170.86 0.65 4.34 170.86
Trenton 1.75 5.44 214.16 0.70 4.39 172.83
Winchester 1.70 5.39 212.19 1.10 4.79 188.57
North Gower 1.10 4.79 188.57 1.10 4.79 188.57
Huron FOB 1.30 4.99 196.45 0.70 4.39 172.83
Kent FOB 0.80 4.49 176.76 0.50 4.19 164.95
Lamb FOB 0.80 4.49 176.76 0.50 4.19 164.95
Mdsx FOB 0.95N/A N/A N/A 4.64 182.67 0.55 4.24 166.92
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.40 5.09 200.38N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A
Sarn-Eth 1.30 1.30 0.85N/A 4.99 196.45 0.85 4.54 178.73
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing 1.60 1.70 1.05 1.00 5.29 208.26 1.15 4.84 190.54
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.60 1.70N/A N/A 5.29 208.26 0.95 4.64 182.67
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.30 1.35 1.25 1.30 4.99 196.45
W O Feed 2.01 1.58 5.70 224.40
US Rep 1.90 1.47 5.59 220.07
Toledo El. 0.03 3.72 146.31 -0.26 3.43 134.84
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.52 1/2 4.21 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.55 4.24
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3223 up 0.0028
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV15 HI 8.85 3/4 NOV15 HI 8.85 3/4
LOW 8.70 3/4 LOW 8.70 3/4
CLOSE8.72 1/4 Down 7 CLOSE 8.72 1/4 Down 7
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+JAN16
CK Low 2.00 10.72 393.982.00 10.72 393.98
CK High 2.05 10.77 395.822.10 10.82 397.66
CK Average 2.02 -0.8110.74 394.792.04 -0.8010.76 395.27
Essex Cty 2.10 10.82 397.662.10 10.82 397.66
Mdsx Low 1.99 10.71 393.621.99 10.71 393.62
Mdsx High 2.00 10.72 393.982.00 10.72 393.98
Mdsx Average 2.00 -0.8410.72 393.802.00 -0.8410.72 393.80
Hensall 2.03 10.75 394.902.00 10.72 393.98
Bruce 2.00 10.72 393.981.95 10.67 392.15
Putnam 2.00 10.72 393.981.95 10.67 392.15
Burford 2.02 10.74 394.722.02 10.74 394.72
Port Perry 1.99 10.71 393.621.99 10.71 393.62
Norfolk 2.05 10.77 395.822.05 10.77 395.82
Palmerston 2.00 10.72 393.982.00 10.72 393.98
Varna 2.05 10.77 395.822.00 10.72 393.98
Trenton 2.00 10.72 393.982.00 10.72 393.98
Winchester 2.30 11.02 405.012.30 11.02 405.01
North Gower 2.28 11.00 404.272.28 11.00 404.27
Huron FOB 2.15 10.87 399.502.10 10.82 397.66
Kent FOB 2.05 10.77 395.822.05 10.77 395.82
Lambton FOB 2.05 10.77 395.822.05 10.77 395.82
Middlesex FOB2.22 2.10 2.16 N/A 10.94 402.072.10 10.82 397.66
PROCESSORS
Hamilton N/A 2.48 2.54 2.56 2.61 11.33 416.40
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.04 8.68 319.04-0.44 8.29 304.43
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3223 up 0.0028
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC15 HI 4.81 JUL16 HI 4.96 1/2
LOW 4.71 LOW 4.88 3/4
CLOSE 4.72 1/4 Down 2 3/4 CLOSE 4.90 1/4 Down 2 1/4
Minni wheat closed narrowly mixed.
DEC15 HI 5.10 3/4 SEP16 HI 5.51 1/2
LOW 5.02 1/2 LOW 5.50
CLOSE 5.05 1/4 Up 1/4 CLOSE 5.51 1/2 Down 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.65 1.67 1.40 0.78
CAD $/bu 8.38 6.39 6.12 5.83
CAD $/tonne 307.74 234.73 224.99 214.29
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 1.30 1.00 N/A N/A 1.30 0.65 N/A
London 3.28 1.40 0.83 N/A 1.68 1.28 0.48 N/A
Hensall 3.60 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.85 N/A 0.60 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.00 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Norwich 3.60 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.85 N/A 0.60 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.60 N/A 0.40 N/A 1.85 N/A 0.60 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A 1.30 0.60 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.35 1.00 0.60 N/A 1.35 0.65 0.20
Varna 3.60 1.20 1.00 N/A 1.85 1.20 0.60 N/A
Mitchell 3.60 1.20 1.00 N/A 1.85 1.30 0.60 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.36 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.65 1.40 0.77 N/A 1.72 1.25 0.79
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.58N/A 2.13N/A 3.58N/A 1.99N/A
Toledo El. 4.89US 6.48CA 4.72US 6.26CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.59 1.72 0.80 1.26
CAD $/bu 6.49 6.63 5.70 6.78
CAD $/tonne 238.62 243.49 209.42 248.97
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats 280.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 494.40 - 498.80
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 210.00 - 215.00
--
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.69 ↑ 02 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.72 ↓ 02 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 4.72 ↓ 07 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.05 ↓ 03 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 4.72 ↓ 03 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.33 ↑ 08 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7560 ↑ .20 points
CORN:
On the charts: Like wheat and soybeans, corn prices are vulnerable with the monthly United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report looming on Friday, September 11. The corn charts, like the others, seem to be above their obvious support levels on the December charts. With the September grain contracts expiring soon, we could see more volatility on these contracts as the open interest is thin. The December contract sees support at the $3.40 - $3.50 level and below that at we are looking towards $3.25. All indicators are still negative, the market is still in bear mode, and the trend remains down.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: Our initial support for November soybeans after violating the $9 level was around $8.60. We managed to reach $8.54 on the last week of August. From here we are now viewing our breakdown level of $9as overhead resistance. If we can climb back over and close above $9 convincingly, we may see an additional rally of 25 to 50 cents. This could coincide with a trading gap on the weekly chart. However, if we fail the support at the $8.50 level, we could see more downside as the September contract is set to expire next week. The next level of support is $8.25 based on the November contract. All indicators are still negative. The September 11 USDA report may cause more volatility than normal.
WHEAT:
On the charts: As the September contract readies to expire the week of September 18, the December contract is ready to take the helm. Both contracts found support at or near our anticipated $4.60 support levels. However, a negative USDA report could lead to an initial drop after the release which could test our $4.50 trend-line on the December contract and possibly the next major support around $4.25 on our lead month which is still September. If this was to happen, and we were to recover and close unchanged or higher on that day, we could see a short term bottom. Of course, this is a lot of “if’s” but in my experience as a broker, it takes a situation like that to turn the tides with these markets. Meanwhile, all indicators are still negative. For now, we need to continue treating this as a bear market.
HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE September 9, 2015
SWW @ $307.18/MT ($8.36/bu), HRW @ $234.27/MT ($6.38/bu),
HRS @ $213.86/MT ($5.82/bu), SRW @ $224.55/MT ($6.11/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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