[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Sep 2 15:14:20 EDT 2015


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, September 2
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3311 up 0.0132
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.

      DEC15   HI 3.71  1/2                    DEC15    HI 3.71  1/2
             LOW 3.64  1/4                            LOW 3.64  1/4
            CLOSE3.67  1/2  Down 1 1/2              CLOSE 3.67  1/2  Down 1 1/2

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC15+DEC15+MAR16
CK Low       0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.50         4.18 164.36
CK High      0.80                        4.48 176.17  0.55         4.23 166.33
CK Avg       0.76                  -0.44 4.43 174.53  0.51 -0.69   4.18 164.69
Essex Cty   N/A                                     N/A
Mdsx Low     0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.50         4.18 164.36
Mdsx High    0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.60         4.28 168.30
Mdsx Avg     0.75                  -0.45 4.43 174.20  0.55 -0.65   4.23 166.33
Hensall      0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.63         4.30 169.28
Bruce        0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.50         4.18 164.36
Putnam       0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.50         4.18 164.36
Burford      0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.50         4.18 164.36
Port Perry   0.85                        4.53 178.14  0.55         4.23 166.33
Norfolk      0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.50         4.18 164.36
Palmerston   0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.55         4.23 166.33
Varna        0.65                        4.33 170.27  0.65         4.33 170.27
Trenton      1.36                        5.03 198.02  0.70         4.38 172.24
Winchester   1.70                        5.38 211.60  1.10         4.78 187.98
North Gower  1.80                        5.48 215.54  1.10         4.78 187.98
Huron FOB    1.30                        4.98 195.86  0.70         4.38 172.24
Kent FOB     0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.50         4.18 164.36
Lamb FOB     0.75                        4.43 174.20  0.50         4.18 164.36
Mdsx FOB     0.90N/A   N/A   N/A         4.58 180.11  0.55         4.23 166.33
FOB SW Que  N/A                                     N/A
Track        1.40                        5.08 199.79N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A     0.75                   N/A
Sarn-Eth     1.30  1.30  0.85N/A         4.98 195.86  0.85         4.53 178.14
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing   1.70  1.75  1.00  0.95      5.38 211.60  1.05         4.73 186.02
Pt.Colb-Ing  1.70  1.75N/A   N/A         5.38 211.60  0.95         4.63 182.08
Cardnl-Ing  N/A    1.70  1.30  1.20                   1.55         5.23 205.70
W O Feed     1.96                   1.52 5.64 221.84

US Rep       1.85                   1.41 5.53 217.51
Toledo El.   0.03                        3.70 145.72 -0.27         3.41 134.23

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton    N/A                                     N/A

MID SD CRN                                            0.52   1/2   4.20
HI SD CRN                                             0.55         4.22 1/2
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3311 up 0.0132
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower to steady.

       NOV15   HI 8.80  1/4           NOV15    HI 8.80  1/4
              LOW 8.65                        LOW 8.65
             CLOSE8.74   Unchanged          CLOSE 8.74   Unchanged

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+NOV1+JAN16
CK Low       2.00                     10.74 394.631.95      10.69 392.79
CK High      2.05                     10.79 396.462.05      10.79 396.46
CK Average   2.03                -0.8310.77 395.732.01 -0.8410.75 395.12
Essex Cty     N/A                                  N/A
Mdsx Low     2.00                     10.74 394.631.95      10.69 392.79
Mdsx High    2.05                     10.79 396.462.00      10.74 394.63
Mdsx Average 2.03                -0.8310.77 395.551.98 -0.8810.72 393.71
Hensall      2.05                     10.79 396.462.03      10.77 395.55
Bruce        2.05                     10.79 396.461.95      10.69 392.79
Putnam        N/A                                 2.05      10.79 396.46
Burford      2.03                     10.77 395.732.03      10.77 395.73
Port Perry   2.00                     10.74 394.632.00      10.74 394.63
Norfolk      2.03                     10.77 395.732.03      10.77 395.73
Palmerston   2.15                     10.89 400.142.00      10.74 394.63
Varna        2.05                     10.79 396.462.00      10.74 394.63
Trenton      2.05                     10.79 396.462.05      10.79 396.46
Winchester   2.16                     10.90 400.512.16      10.90 400.51
North Gower  2.14                     10.88 399.772.26      11.00 404.18
Huron FOB    2.15                     10.89 400.142.10      10.84 398.30
Kent FOB     2.03                     10.77 395.732.03      10.77 395.73
Lambton FOB  2.03                     10.77 395.732.03      10.77 395.73
Middlesex FOB2.30  N/A  N/A  N/A      11.04 405.652.17      10.91 400.87

PROCESSORS
Hamilton      N/A 2.54 2.61 2.63                  2.67      11.41 419.25
Windsor       N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                  N/A
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC      N/A                                  N/A

Toledo El.   -0.04                     8.70 319.68-0.44      8.30 305.05


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3311 up 0.0132
Chicago wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
DEC15      HI         4.90              JUL16   HI      5.00  1/4
           LOW    4.76  1/2                     LOW        4.94
           CLOSE  4.79   Down 7 1/4             CLOSE   4.96  1/4  Down 1 3/4

Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC15      HI         5.13              SEP16   HI      5.56  1/4
           LOW    5.02  1/2                     LOW        5.52
           CLOSE  5.08  1/4  Down 3             CLOSE   5.55  1/4  Down 1 3/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 3.69          1.70            1.43          0.80
CAD $/bu              8.48          6.49            6.22          5.88
CAD $/tonne         311.52        238.39          228.64        216.09


Direct MarkHarvest 2015                 Harvest 2016
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    1.30   0.90    N/A    N/A     1.30   0.65    N/A
London      3.27    1.54   0.89    N/A    1.66    1.27   0.47    N/A
Hensall     3.60    N/A    1.00    N/A    1.85    N/A    0.60    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    1.05    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.65    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A   0.90    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Norwich     3.60    N/A    1.00    N/A    1.85    N/A    0.36    N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 3.60    N/A    0.40    N/A    1.85    N/A    0.60    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    0.35    N/A    N/A     1.30   0.60    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.35    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.40   1.05   0.60    N/A     1.35   0.65   0.20
Varna       3.60    1.20   1.00    N/A    1.85    1.20   0.60    N/A
Mitchell    3.60    1.20   1.00    N/A    5.00    1.30   0.60    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.42    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.70   1.43   0.79    N/A     0.70   0.81   1.20

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM     4.62N/A        2.30N/A        3.61N/A        2.02N/A

Toledo El. 4.96US         6.58CA        4.78US          6.35CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.62          1.75            0.83          1.28
CAD $/bu              6.58          6.72            5.79          6.84
CAD $/tonne         241.93        246.80          212.68        251.19

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             290.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats              280.00
Bayport Barley            275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            500.57 - 504.98
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      210.00 - 215.00

Wednesday, September 2, 2015
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	Dec	3.67	↓	         06	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Nov	8.74	↑	09	cents
Wheat CBOT	Dec	4.79	↓	16	cents
Wheat Minn.	Dec	5.08	↓	06	cents
Wheat Kansas	Dec	4.75	↓	14	cents
Chicago Oats	 Dec	2.25	↑	09	cents 
Canadian $	Dec	.7540	↑	.45	points



CORN:  
Corn progress continued to be just a couple percentage points behind 2014 and the five-year average during the week of August 24 to 28, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service. Corn condition was rated at 77 per cent good to excellent, 18 per cent fair and five per cent poor or very poor, with 91 per cent at dough stage and 59 per cent dented.
On the charts:  We are approaching our $3.50 support level on the September contract as of September 2.  The weekly charts show solid support at the $3.20 level and minor support at the $3.50 level both based on the September contract prices.  All indicators are still negative, and the market is still in bear mode. Failure to hold these levels could result in a test of the $3.20 level based on the lead month. All indicators are still negative and the trend remains down.   
SOYBEANS:
According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, soybeans were rated 74 per cent good to excellent, 20 per cent fair and six per cent poor or very poor, with 96 per cent setting pods and 10 per cent dropping leaves.

On the charts:  As anticipated, the break below the important $9 support level has caused additional weakness in the market. Our first line of support on the technical front is around the $8.40 to $8.60 level based on the lead month contract which is still September. We have switched to the November contract for pricing but we still use the September numbers for analysis until the contract expires, which is later this month. We should consider rallies back above $9 as selling opportunities until we find reason to do otherwise. All indicators are still negative and continue to point to a multi-year bear market. 

WHEAT:

The poor quality, as well as quantity, of the U.S. soft red winter wheat harvest was evident when comparing data of more than 20 years.
U.S. Wheat Associates advised buyers "to ensure that their purchases [of U.S. soft red winter wheat] meet their expectations."  This was pointed out after crop concerns arose from this year’s unusually wet weather.
On the charts:  The slide continues on the futures contract as we approach our anticipated $4.60 support line based on the weekly futures contract. As of September 2, we are currently trading at $4.70 on the September contract which will determine the weekly chart price until its expiry later this month. Short term overhead resistance is seen at the $5 area on the December contract while major resistance stands at the $5.35 area. We are now quoting the December contract for pricing purposes, however, we will continue to monitor the September contract for technical analysis for the weekly charts. All indicators are still negative, however, we are getting into oversold territory and any washout in prices in the coming weeks could signal a change of the guard.  For now, we need to remember that this is still a bear market.






HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE September 2, 2015

SWW @ $311.59/MT ($8.48/bu),  HRW @ $238.45/MT ($6.49/bu), 
HRS @ $216.02/MT ($5.88/bu),  SRW @ $228.70/MT ($6.22/bu).


Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


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John Jordan 
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

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