[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Sep 30 15:52:58 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, September 30
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3394 down 0.0019
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
DEC15 HI 3.94 1/2 DEC15 HI 3.94 1/2
LOW 3.83 1/2 LOW 3.83 1/2
CLOSE3.87 3/4 Down 1 1/4 CLOSE 3.87 3/4 Down 1 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC15+MAR16+MAR16
CK Low 0.80 4.68 184.15 0.55 4.43 174.30
CK High 0.85 4.73 186.11 0.60 4.48 176.27
CK Avg 0.83 -0.48 4.70 185.13 0.59 -0.71 4.47 175.94
Essex Cty N/A 0.60 4.48 176.27
Mdsx Low N/A 0.60 4.48 176.27
Mdsx High N/A 0.65 4.53 178.24
Mdsx Avg N/A 0.63 -0.68 4.50 177.26
Hensall N/A 0.68 4.55 179.22
Bruce 0.85 4.73 186.11 0.60 4.48 176.27
Putnam 0.85 4.73 186.11 0.55 4.43 174.30
Burford N/A 0.60 4.48 176.27
Port Perry N/A 0.65 4.53 178.24
Norfolk N/A 0.60 4.48 176.27
Palmerston 0.85 4.73 186.11 0.65 4.53 178.24
Varna 0.65 4.53 178.24 0.65 4.53 178.24
Trenton 0.80 4.68 184.15 0.65 4.53 178.24
Winchester 1.20 5.08 199.89 0.70 4.58 180.21
North Gower 1.15 5.03 197.92 1.15 5.03 197.92
Huron FOB N/A 1.00 4.88 192.02
Kent FOB N/A 0.60 4.48 176.27
Lamb FOB N/A 0.60 4.48 176.27
Mdsx FOB 0.80N/A N/A N/A 4.68 184.15 0.60 4.48 176.27
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.48 5.35 210.72N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 0.90 0.95 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 0.90 0.90 0.95 1.10 4.98 195.96
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A 0.95 1.10 1.15 0.95 4.83 190.05
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.25 1.25 1.40 1.25 5.13 201.86
W O Feed 1.53 1.08 5.41 212.88
US Rep 1.40 0.95 5.28 207.77
Toledo El. -0.12 3.76 147.92 -0.19 3.69 145.29
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.57 1/2 4.45 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.60 4.47 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3394 down 0.0019
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV15 HI 9.02 1/4 NOV16 HI 9.01
LOW 8.81 1/4 LOW 8.85
CLOSE8.92 Up 7 3/4 CLOSE 8.93 1/4 Up 6
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN16
CK Low 2.15 11.07 406.751.85 10.78 396.19
CK High 2.35 11.27 414.101.95 10.88 399.86
CK Average 2.26 -0.7311.18 410.861.92 -1.0810.85 398.58
Essex Cty 2.30 11.22 412.261.90 10.83 398.03
Mdsx Low 2.21 11.13 408.961.91 10.84 398.39
Mdsx High 2.25 11.17 410.431.95 10.88 399.86
Mdsx Average 2.23 -0.7611.15 409.691.93 -1.0710.86 399.13
Hensall 2.28 11.20 411.351.95 10.88 399.86
Bruce 2.25 11.17 410.431.95 10.88 399.86
Putnam 2.00 10.92 401.241.70 10.63 390.68
Burford 2.24 11.16 410.061.94 10.87 399.50
Port Perry 2.21 11.13 408.961.91 10.84 398.39
Norfolk 2.30 11.22 412.261.90 10.83 398.03
Palmerston 2.25 11.17 410.431.85 10.78 396.19
Varna 2.25 11.17 410.431.95 10.88 399.86
Trenton 2.25 11.17 410.431.90 10.83 398.03
Winchester 2.42 11.34 416.672.23 11.16 410.15
North Gower 2.47 11.39 418.512.14 11.07 406.84
Huron FOB 2.40 11.32 415.942.05 10.98 403.54
Kent FOB 2.30 11.22 412.261.90 10.83 398.03
Lambton FOB 2.30 11.22 412.261.90 10.83 398.03
Middlesex FOB2.44 N/A N/A N/A 11.36 417.412.12 11.05 406.11
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.83 2.90 2.91 2.91 11.75 431.742.44 11.37 417.87
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.37 8.55 314.01-0.51 8.43 309.57
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3394 down 0.0019
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
DEC15 HI 5.15 1/2 JUL16 HI 5.29 1/2
LOW 4.98 1/4 LOW 5.14
CLOSE 5.12 3/4 Up 9 CLOSE 5.27 Up 7 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately higher.
DEC15 HI 5.31 3/4 SEP16 HI 5.74 3/4
LOW 5.17 1/2 LOW 5.64 3/4
CLOSE 5.27 Up 6 3/4 CLOSE 5.70 3/4 Up 5 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.86 1.59 1.32 0.83
CAD $/bu 8.98 6.71 6.45 6.10
CAD $/tonne 330.12 246.70 236.89 224.25
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A 1.25 0.70 N/A
London 3.59 1.15 0.97 N/A 1.76 1.15 0.62 N/A
Hensall 3.60 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.70 N/A 0.55 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Norwich 3.60 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.70 N/A 0.55 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.60 N/A 0.40 N/A 1.70 N/A 0.55 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A 1.25 0.60 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.20 1.00 0.50 N/A 1.20 0.60 0.30
Varna 3.50 1.15 1.05 N/A 1.85 1.15 0.60 N/A
Mitchell 3.60 1.10 1.00 N/A 1.70 1.25 0.55 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.71 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.60 1.33 0.85 N/A 1.92 0.98 1.40
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.59N/A 2.12N/A 3.44N/A 2.10N/A
Toledo El. 5.30US 7.07CA 5.09US 6.80CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.77 1.90 0.97 1.38
CAD $/bu 7.04 7.17 6.24 7.09
CAD $/tonne 258.60 263.51 229.16 260.44
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats 280.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 494.95 - 511.48
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 210.00 - 217.00
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.88 ↑ 05 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.92 ↑ 31 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.13 ↑ 07 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.27 ↑ 0 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.02 ↑ 01 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.27 ↓ 03 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7490 ↓ .03 points
CORN:
On the charts: The corn futures have had an excellent month with the futures gaining 50 cents since the September 4 low of $3.45. This move has turned the short term indicators positive while price movement on the December contract is in territory not seen since late July of this year. The charts are displaying a classic head and shoulders formation that suggests a move to challenge the 3.95 top made back in July and suggests and eventually an extension to the $4.25 level. Overhead resistance is last week’s high of $3.95 - $4.00. A close above this level could ignite a further rally to challenge that top at $4.25 - $4.40. A pullback from the $4 level is more likely before we attempt an assault on the old top at $4.40.
Short term indicators are positive with the weekly indicator are neutral but the main trend is still down and at this point we would need a close above $4.50 to even consider this trend reversed to the upside. Support is seen at $3.50 and again at $3.25.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: The November soybean contract has been impressive this month as it has found good support at the $8.50 level and looks like it wants to challenge the overhead support at $9 and possibly higher. A close above $9 could spark a rally to challenge the gap at $9.50. A lot of work is required to turn this market around. Overhead resistance is at $9.00 while support is seen at $8.50 with not much below there until we see $8. Short term indicators are now positive but the main trend is still down. Harvest pressure should prove interesting with the November contract prices.
WHEAT:
On the charts:
This week we have seen positive base building in all of the grains. Our September 4 low of $4.60 is now our major support level and hopefully it is in the rear view mirror. With that said, any meltdown in equities or a shocker of a monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is really the biggest concern for new lows in the coming weeks. At the present we see support at the $4.80 level and again at the $4.50 level based on the December contract. Overhead resistance stands at $5.15 to $5.30 on December. Short term indicators have turned positive while both weekly and long term indicators are still negative but in oversold conditions. This market is trying to turn the tide but technically we are still in bear market mode.
--
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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