[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report plus Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jul 29 15:27:01 EDT 2015


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, July 29
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2893 down 0.0041
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.

      SEP15   HI 3.77  3/4                    DEC15    HI 3.88
             LOW 3.67                                 LOW 3.77  1/4
            CLOSE3.67  3/4  Down 7 1/4              CLOSE 3.78  1/4  Down 7 1/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +SEP15+DEC15+DEC15
CK Low       0.55                        4.23 166.43  0.45         4.23 166.63
CK High      0.60                        4.28 168.40  0.50         4.28 168.59
CK Avg       0.56                  -0.52 4.24 166.76  0.46 -0.65   4.24 166.95
Essex Cty   N/A                                     N/A
Mdsx Low     0.55                        4.23 166.43  0.45         4.23 166.63
Mdsx High    0.55                        4.23 166.43  0.55         4.33 170.56
Mdsx Avg     0.55                  -0.53 4.23 166.43  0.50 -0.61   4.28 168.59
Hensall      0.58                        4.25 167.41  0.55         4.33 170.56
Bruce       N/A                                     N/A
Putnam       0.55                        4.23 166.43  0.45         4.23 166.63
Burford      0.55                        4.23 166.43  0.45         4.23 166.63
Port Perry   0.65                        4.33 170.37  0.50         4.28 168.59
Norfolk      0.55                        4.23 166.43  0.45         4.23 166.63
Palmerston   0.60                        4.28 168.40  0.55         4.33 170.56
Varna        0.60                        4.28 168.40  0.55         4.33 170.56
Trenton      1.00                        4.68 184.15  0.65         4.43 174.50
Winchester   1.05                        4.73 186.11  1.00         4.78 188.28
North Gower  1.20                        4.88 192.02  0.90         4.68 184.34
Huron FOB    0.75                        4.43 174.30  0.55         4.33 170.56
Kent FOB     0.55                        4.23 166.43  0.45         4.23 166.63
Lamb FOB     0.55                        4.23 166.43  0.45         4.23 166.63
Mdsx FOB     0.70  0.70N/A   N/A         4.38 172.33  0.45         4.23 166.63
FOB SW Que  N/A                                     N/A
Track        0.95                        4.63 182.18N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.65         4.43 174.50
Sarn-Eth     0.80  0.80  0.85N/A         4.48 176.27N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.15  1.20                   0.80         4.58 180.41
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A     1.15N/A                    N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.30  1.40                   0.95         4.73 186.31
W O Feed     1.14                   0.77 4.82 189.66

US Rep       1.30                   0.93 4.98 195.96
Toledo El.  -0.01                        3.66 144.27 -0.31         3.47 136.68

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton    N/A                                     N/A

MID SD CRN                                            0.47   1/2   4.25 3/4
HI SD CRN                                             0.50         4.28 1/4
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2893 down 0.0041
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.

       NOV15   HI 9.54  3/4           NOV15    HI 9.54  3/4
              LOW 9.40  3/4                   LOW 9.40  3/4
             CLOSE9.43  1/4  Down 1 1/2     CLOSE 9.43  1/4  Down 1 1/2

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+NOV1+NOV15
CK Low       2.09                     11.52 423.381.93      11.36 417.50
CK High      2.25                     11.68 429.262.05      11.48 421.91
CK Average   2.17                -0.6011.61 426.441.97 -0.8011.40 419.03
Essex Cty     N/A                                  N/A
Mdsx Low     2.09                     11.52 423.381.91      11.34 416.77
Mdsx High    2.15                     11.58 425.581.95      11.38 418.24
Mdsx Average 2.12                -0.6511.55 424.481.93 -0.8411.36 417.50
Hensall      2.18                     11.61 426.502.00      11.43 420.07
Bruce        2.55                     11.98 440.281.95      11.38 418.24
Putnam       2.25                     11.68 429.262.05      11.48 421.91
Burford      2.12                     11.55 424.481.94      11.37 417.87
Port Perry   2.09                     11.52 423.381.91      11.34 416.77
Norfolk      2.10                     11.53 423.751.95      11.38 418.24
Palmerston   2.20                     11.63 427.422.00      11.43 420.07
Varna        2.20                     11.63 427.422.05      11.48 421.91
Trenton      2.15                     11.58 425.582.00      11.43 420.07
Winchester   2.15                     11.58 425.582.28      11.71 430.36
North Gower  1.76                     11.19 411.252.20      11.63 427.42
Huron FOB    2.30                     11.73 431.102.15      11.58 425.58
Kent FOB     2.15                     11.58 425.581.95      11.38 418.24
Lambton FOB  2.15                     11.58 425.581.95      11.38 418.24
Middlesex FOB N/A 2.20 2.39  N/A                  2.08      11.51 423.01

PROCESSORS
Hamilton      N/A 2.59 2.79 2.47                  2.47      11.90 437.34
Windsor       N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                  N/A
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC      N/A                                  N/A

Toledo El.   0.35                      9.78 359.42-0.43      9.01 330.89


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2893 down 0.0041
Chicago wheat closed lower.
SEP15      HI     5.12  1/2             JUL16   HI         5.33
           LOW    4.95  1/2                     LOW        5.21
           CLOSE  4.96  1/4  Down 14 1/2        CLOSE   5.21  1/4  Down 13 3/4

Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
SEP15      HI         5.40              SEP16   HI      5.89  1/4
           LOW    5.28  3/4                     LOW        5.84
           CLOSE  5.29  1/2  Down 10 3/4        CLOSE   5.87   Down 6 1/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 3.21          1.78            1.07          0.98
CAD $/bu              8.17          6.75            6.03          6.27
CAD $/tonne         300.17        247.87          221.71        230.39


Direct MarkHarvest 2015                 Harvest 2016
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    1.70   0.75    N/A    N/A     1.35   0.70    N/A
London      3.15    1.47   0.95    N/A    1.63    1.24   0.46    N/A
Hensall     3.35    N/A    1.00    N/A    1.80    N/A    0.60    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    1.05    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A   0.75    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Norwich     3.35    N/A    0.80    N/A    1.80    N/A    0.60    N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 3.35    N/A    0.50    N/A    1.80    N/A    0.60    N/A
Chatham      N/A    1.65   0.40    N/A    N/A     1.45   0.60    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.40    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.70   0.95   0.65    N/A     1.50   0.60   0.20
Varna       3.35    1.70   1.00    N/A    1.85    1.40   0.65    N/A
Mitchell    3.35    1.75   1.00    N/A    1.80    1.45   0.60    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.93    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.83   1.01   1.11    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM     4.70N/A        1.98N/A        4.90N/A        1.79N/A

Toledo El. 5.13US         6.64CA        5.03US          6.51CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.53          1.66            0.76          1.21
CAD $/bu              6.75          6.88            5.97          7.08
CAD $/tonne         247.87        252.62          219.34        260.11

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             280.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats              280.00
Bayport Barley            270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            545.65 - 551.17
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm       210.00


--

Wednesday, July 29, 2015
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	Sep	3.68	↓	         35	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Sep	9.83	↓	20	cents
Wheat CBOT	Sep	4.96	↓	26	cents
Wheat Minn.	Sep	5.30	↓	23	cents
Wheat Kansas	Sep	4.95	↓	23	cents
Chicago Oats	 Sep	2.28	↓	8	cents 
Canadian $	Sep	.7731	↑	0.58	points



CORN:  
In its Weekly Crop Progress Report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated the United States (U.S.) corn as 70% good/excellent, vs. 69% a week ago. The crop remains behind the five-year good/excellent average of 75%. 
In addition, 78% of the corn crop is silking vs. 55% a week ago. The USDA sees 14% of the U.S. crop in the dough stage, compared with the 17% five-year average.

On the charts:  Corn, like the other grains has not fared well in the month of July. The September contract lost more than seventy five cents in the last two weeks of July. With the gap left at $3.90, we now see that as a resistance level. We may see a small rally back to the $3.90 level but I feel that may be the best case before we head back down to see a re-test of the last month’s lows of $3.50 per bushel.  On the downside, support is seen at the $3.50 level on the September corn contract, with major support at the $3.20 area. 
SOYBEANS:
USDA rated the U.S. soybean crop as 62% good/excellent, equal to lastweek and behind a 71% rating a year ago.

On the charts:  Soybeans lost more than a dollar per bushel since the double top made in the month of July. Once again our sights are set on a test of critical support at the $9.00 level. For the immediate future we need a close above $9.66 to resume upside activity. Failure to do so should result in a continuation back to the $9.00 level sometime during the month of August. Without sounding like a broken record, our view hasn’t changed since last year: any rallies above $10.00  should still be viewed as selling opportunities. All three indicators are negative.




WHEAT:

The U.S. Winter Wheat Harvest is 85% complete, compared with 75%last week.

On the charts:  The September wheat contract hit our short term target at the $5.00 area today (July 29).  There is a chance we will move higher over the next week if this level holds but it is strictly a technical matter at this time.  We have lost about $1.15 in the month of July and with harvest upon us we could actually see a re-test of the old lows around $4.60 if the current levels do not hold. For the time being we are hoping for the first scenario. Technically, any rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities. My biggest concern with wheat pricing is the amount of weakness we are seeing in the other grains.  
Short term overhead resistance is seen at the $5.50 area on the September contract while major resistance is seen at 6.25-$6.75.  Support is around $5.00 and again at $4.60.  Both short and medium term indicators are neutral but the main trend is still down.    




HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE JULY 29, 2015

SWW @ $299.48/MT ($8.15/bu),  HRW @ $247.28/MT ($6.73/bu), 
HRS @ $230.19MT ($6.26/bu),  SRW @ $221.17MT ($6.02/bu).


Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 

-- 
John Jordan 
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

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