[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report plus Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jul 23 14:54:26 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, July 23
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.303 up 0.0004
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
SEP15 HI 4.05 1/4 DEC15 HI 4.15 1/2
LOW 3.98 1/2 LOW 4.08 1/2
CLOSE4.03 1/4 Up 1/2 CLOSE 4.13 3/4 Up 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP15+DEC15+DEC15
CK Low 0.55 4.58 180.41 0.45 4.59 180.60
CK High 0.55 4.58 180.41 0.50 4.64 182.57
CK Avg 0.55 -0.68 4.58 180.41 0.46 -0.80 4.60 180.93
Essex Cty N/A N/A
Mdsx Low 0.55 4.58 180.41 0.45 4.59 180.60
Mdsx High 0.55 4.58 180.41 0.50 4.64 182.57
Mdsx Avg 0.55 -0.68 4.58 180.41 0.48 -0.78 4.61 181.59
Hensall 0.58 4.61 181.39 0.50 4.64 182.57
Bruce 0.55 4.58 180.41 0.45 4.59 180.60
Putnam 0.55 4.58 180.41 0.45 4.59 180.60
Burford 0.55 4.58 180.41 0.45 4.59 180.60
Port Perry 0.65 4.68 184.34 0.50 4.64 182.57
Norfolk 0.55 4.58 180.41 0.45 4.59 180.60
Palmerston 0.60 4.63 182.37 0.55 4.69 184.54
Varna 0.60 4.63 182.37 0.55 4.69 184.54
Trenton 0.90 4.93 194.18 0.65 4.79 188.48
Winchester 1.05 5.08 200.09 1.00 5.14 202.25
North Gower 1.10 5.13 202.06 0.90 5.04 198.32
Huron FOB 0.75 4.78 188.28 0.55 4.69 184.54
Kent FOB 0.55 4.58 180.41 0.45 4.59 180.60
Lamb FOB 0.55 4.58 180.41 0.45 4.59 180.60
Mdsx FOB 0.65 0.65N/A N/A 4.68 184.34 0.45 4.59 180.60
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 0.95 4.98 196.15N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.65 4.79 188.48
Sarn-Eth 0.80 0.80 0.85N/A 4.83 190.25N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.10 1.15 0.75 4.89 192.41
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.30 1.40 0.95 5.09 200.29
W O Feed 1.12 0.72 5.15 202.84
US Rep 1.40 1.00 5.43 213.87
Toledo El. -0.04 3.99 157.21 -0.34 3.80 149.54
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.47 1/2 4.61 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.50 4.63 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.303 up 0.0004
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.
AUG15 HI 10.29 NOV15 HI 10.02
LOW 10.04 1/4 LOW 9.77
CLOSE10.10 Down 10 3/4 CLOSE 9.80 1/2 Down 15
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +AUG1+NOV1+NOV15
CK Low 2.00 12.10 444.602.10 11.91 437.43
CK High 2.35 12.45 457.462.20 12.01 441.11
CK Average 2.16 -0.9112.26 450.542.14 -0.8411.95 438.90
Essex Cty N/A N/A
Mdsx Low 2.12 12.22 449.012.10 11.91 437.43
Mdsx High 2.30 12.40 455.622.12 11.93 438.17
Mdsx Average 2.21 -0.8612.31 452.322.11 -0.8711.92 437.80
Hensall 2.25 12.35 453.782.13 11.93 438.35
Bruce 2.30 12.40 455.622.10 11.91 437.43
Putnam 2.30 12.40 455.622.10 11.91 437.43
Burford 2.15 12.25 450.112.15 11.96 439.27
Port Perry 2.12 12.22 449.012.12 11.93 438.17
Norfolk 2.05 12.15 446.442.15 11.96 439.27
Palmerston 2.45 12.55 461.132.20 12.01 441.11
Varna 2.35 12.45 457.462.15 11.96 439.27
Trenton 2.25 12.35 453.782.15 11.96 439.27
Winchester 1.90 12.00 440.922.45 12.26 450.29
North Gower 1.91 12.01 441.292.36 12.17 446.99
Huron FOB 2.30 12.40 455.622.25 12.06 442.95
Kent FOB 2.05 12.15 446.442.15 11.96 439.27
Lambton FOB 2.05 12.15 446.442.15 11.96 439.27
Middlesex FOB N/A 2.35 2.57 N/A 2.30 12.11 444.78
PROCESSORS
Hamilton N/A 2.68 2.95 2.68 2.68 12.49 458.75
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.04 10.06 369.67-0.43 9.37 344.46
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.303 up 0.0004
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP15 HI 5.27 JUL16 HI 5.42
LOW 5.16 1/2 LOW 5.36
CLOSE 5.21 1/2 Up 4 3/4 CLOSE 5.40 1/2 Up 1 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP15 HI 5.55 1/4 SEP16 HI 6.00 1/4
LOW 5.47 1/2 LOW 5.93 1/4
CLOSE 5.52 3/4 Up 4 3/4 CLOSE 6.00 1/4 Up 2 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.35 1.91 1.19 1.22
CAD $/bu 8.56 7.13 6.41 6.75
CAD $/tonne 314.58 261.87 235.52 248.10
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 1.70 1.00 N/A N/A 1.45 0.60 N/A
London 3.26 1.51 0.79 N/A 1.69 1.30 0.59 N/A
Hensall 3.35 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.60 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Norwich 3.60 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.60 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.60 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.60 N/A
Chatham N/A 1.65 0.60 N/A N/A 1.45 0.50 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.60 N/A N/A N/A 0.50 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.70 1.00 0.65 N/A 1.50 0.60 0.20
Varna 3.35 1.70 1.00 N/A 1.85 1.40 0.65 N/A
Mitchell 3.35 1.75 1.00 N/A 1.80 1.45 0.60 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 1.03 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.89 1.17 1.21 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.85N/A 2.11N/A 5.03N/A 1.90N/A
Toledo El. 5.39US 7.02CA 5.23US 6.81CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.64 1.77 0.86 1.30
CAD $/bu 7.05 7.18 6.27 7.31
CAD $/tonne 259.00 263.79 230.25 268.46
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 280.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats 280.00
Bayport Barley 270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 555.57 - 561.09
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 205.00 - 210.00
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 4.03 ↓ 27 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 10.02 ↓ 13 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 5.22 ↓ 45 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.53 ↓ 37 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 5.18 ↓ 40 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7678 ↓ -0.58 points
CORN:
United States (US) ethanol production slipped to 973,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 17, versus 984,000 previous per day the previous week and 959,000 per day on average the previous year.
Ethanol stocks slip to 19.6 million barrels in week ending July 17, versus 19.7 million the previous week and 17.9 million per week in the previous year.
On the charts: We are currently in the midst of a correction on the September contract. This big move in the last two weeks looks like the beginning of what could eventually be a trend change. With that said, trends don’t change very often, so it could take months for the real trend to change. In the meantime we have the short term trend positive while the medium term is neutral and the main or long term trend still negative. As stated before, we see support at the $4.00 level on Corn and again at $3.90.
SOYBEANS:
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced 120,000 tonnes of soybeans was sold to China for a new crop. The shipment period is most likely September. Analysts say with Brazilian basis levels firming, the US may start to see more export demand.
On the charts: Soybeans have been range-bound for a full year at the $9.00-$10.50 levels. This lengthy sideways movement reinforces that a break to close above the $10.60 or below the $9.00 on the lead month will establish the direction coming into the November harvest. Although both daily and weekly signals are neutral to slightly positive, the main trend is still down. I would still need to see a close above the $10.75 to be excited about a potential trend reversal.
WHEAT:
One of the largest negatives for US wheat may simply be the high US dollar. The dollar makes US wheat exports unattractive even when considering freight costs.
On the charts: We are now getting the pullback that we anticipated and as of this writing (July 21) the September contract hovers around the $520-$5.30 level. To get a clearer technical picture, one needs to look at the long term chart which is based on the lead month chart over a twenty or more year span. The charts show wheat topping out at $13.30 per bushel in February 2008. Since that date, wheat has continued to make lower highs and has been in a downtrend for some seven plus years. In the past 3 years wheat has traded as high as $9.50 and recent lows of $4.75. The most significant overhead resistance line is now intersecting the $6.50 level and a clean break with a close above there is required before we can even begin to look at a bull market. In the meantime any rallies in wheat, as in most of the grains are being viewed as selling opportunities. That being said, all bear markets come to an end. When the market finally turns, and I’m sure it will, it is anyone’s guess how high we will fly. For the time being we need to look at this market as a bear market. To consider confirming a trend change, I am looking for a close above the $6.75 level on the lead month contract.
Overhead resistance is seen at $6.25-$6.75 while support is at $5.00 and again at $4.70. Both short and medium term indicators are neutral but the main trend is still down.
HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF 10AM July 23, 2015
SWW @ $314.14/MT ($8.56/bu), HRW @ $261.77/MT ($7.12/bu),
HRS @ $252.68/MT ($6.88/bu), SRW @ $235.45/MT ($6.41/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: grain.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 266684 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20150723/341256a6/attachment-0002.pdf>
-------------- next part --------------
An embedded and charset-unspecified text was scrubbed...
Name: corn.txt
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20150723/341256a6/attachment-0002.txt>
-------------- next part --------------
An embedded and charset-unspecified text was scrubbed...
Name: wheatcom.txt
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20150723/341256a6/attachment-0003.txt>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: wheatcom.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 390072 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20150723/341256a6/attachment-0003.pdf>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: wheatcom.doc
Type: application/msword
Size: 378880 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20150723/341256a6/attachment-0001.doc>
More information about the Farmmarketnews
mailing list