Wednesday, July 29, 2015
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Sep
3.68
?
         35
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Sep
9.83
?
20
cents
Wheat CBOT
Sep
4.96
?
26
cents
Wheat Minn.
Sep
5.30
?
23
cents
Wheat Kansas
Sep
4.95
?
23
cents
Chicago Oats
 Sep
2.28
?
8
cents 
Canadian $
Sep
.7731
?
0.58
points



CORN:  
In its Weekly Crop Progress Report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated the United States (U.S.) corn as 70% good/excellent, vs. 69% a week ago. The crop remains behind the five-year good/excellent average of 75%. 
In addition, 78% of the corn crop is silking vs. 55% a week ago. The USDA sees 14% of the U.S. crop in the dough stage, compared with the 17% five-year average.

On the charts:  Corn, like the other grains has not fared well in the month of July. The September contract lost more than seventy five cents in the last two weeks of July. With the gap left at $3.90, we now see that as a resistance level. We may see a small rally back to the $3.90 level but I feel that may be the best case before we head back down to see a re-test of the last month’s lows of $3.50 per bushel.  On the downside, support is seen at the $3.50 level on the September corn contract, with major support at the $3.20 area. 
SOYBEANS:
USDA rated the U.S. soybean crop as 62% good/excellent, equal to lastweek and behind a 71% rating a year ago.

On the charts:  Soybeans lost more than a dollar per bushel since the double top made in the month of July. Once again our sights are set on a test of critical support at the $9.00 level. For the immediate future we need a close above $9.66 to resume upside activity. Failure to do so should result in a continuation back to the $9.00 level sometime during the month of August. Without sounding like a broken record, our view hasn’t changed since last year: any rallies above $10.00  should still be viewed as selling opportunities. All three indicators are negative.




WHEAT:

The U.S. Winter Wheat Harvest is 85% complete, compared with 75%last week.

On the charts:  The September wheat contract hit our short term target at the $5.00 area today (July 29).  There is a chance we will move higher over the next week if this level holds but it is strictly a technical matter at this time.  We have lost about $1.15 in the month of July and with harvest upon us we could actually see a re-test of the old lows around $4.60 if the current levels do not hold. For the time being we are hoping for the first scenario. Technically, any rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities. My biggest concern with wheat pricing is the amount of weakness we are seeing in the other grains.  
Short term overhead resistance is seen at the $5.50 area on the September contract while major resistance is seen at 6.25-$6.75.  Support is around $5.00 and again at $4.60.  Both short and medium term indicators are neutral but the main trend is still down.    




HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE JULY 29, 2015

SWW @ $299.48/MT ($8.15/bu),  HRW @ $247.28/MT ($6.73/bu), 
HRS @ $230.19MT ($6.26/bu),  SRW @ $221.17MT ($6.02/bu).


Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


       Ontario Grain Market Commentary for July 29, 2015