Wednesday, July 22, 2015
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Sep
4.03
?
         27
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Sep
10.02
?
13
cents
Wheat CBOT
Sep
5.22
?
45
cents
Wheat Minn.
Sep
5.53
?
37
cents
Wheat Kansas
Sep
5.18
?
40
cents
 
 
 


 
Canadian $
Sep
.7678
?
-0.58
points



CORN:  
United States (US) ethanol production slipped to 973,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 17, versus 984,000 previous per day the previous week and 959,000 per day on average the previous year.
Ethanol stocks slip to 19.6 million barrels in week ending July 17, versus 19.7 million the previous week and 17.9 million per week in the previous year.
On the charts:  We are currently in the midst of a correction on the September contract. This big move in the last two weeks looks like the beginning of what could eventually be a trend change. With that said, trends don’t change very often, so it could take months for the real trend to change. In the meantime we have the short term trend positive while the medium term is neutral and the main or long term trend still negative. As stated before, we see support at the $4.00 level on Corn and again at $3.90. 
SOYBEANS:
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced 120,000 tonnes of soybeans was sold to China for a new crop. The shipment period is most likely September. Analysts say with Brazilian basis levels firming, the US may start to see more export demand.

On the charts:  Soybeans have been range-bound for a full year at the $9.00-$10.50 levels. This lengthy sideways movement reinforces that a break to close above the $10.60 or below the $9.00 on the lead month will establish the direction coming into the November harvest. Although both daily and weekly signals are neutral to slightly positive, the main trend is still down. I would still need to see a close above the $10.75 to be excited about a potential trend reversal.






WHEAT:

One of the largest negatives for US wheat may simply be the high US dollar.  The dollar makes US wheat exports unattractive even when considering freight costs. 
On the charts:  We are now getting the pullback that we anticipated and as of this writing (July 21) the September contract hovers around the $520-$5.30 level.  To get a clearer technical picture, one needs to look at the long term chart which is based on the lead month chart over a twenty or more year span. The charts show wheat topping out at $13.30 per bushel in February 2008.  Since that date, wheat has continued to make lower highs and has been in a downtrend for some seven plus years.  In the past 3 years wheat has traded as high as $9.50 and recent lows of $4.75.  The most significant overhead resistance line is now intersecting the $6.50 level and a clean break with a close above there is required before we can even begin to look at a bull market.  In the meantime any rallies in wheat, as in most of the grains are being viewed as selling opportunities.  That being said, all bear markets come to an end. When the market finally turns, and I’m sure it will, it is anyone’s guess how high we will fly. For the time being we need to look at this market as a bear market.  To consider confirming a trend change, I am looking for a close above the $6.75 level on the lead month contract.
Overhead resistance is seen at $6.25-$6.75 while support is at $5.00 and again at $4.70.  Both short and medium term indicators are neutral but the main trend is still down.    




HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF 10AM July 23, 2015

SWW @ $314.14/MT ($8.56/bu),  HRW @ $261.77/MT ($7.12/bu), 
HRS @ $252.68/MT ($6.88/bu),  SRW @ $235.45/MT ($6.41/bu).


Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


       Ontario Grain Market Commentary for July 22, 2015