[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report plus Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Aug 19 16:03:13 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, August 19
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3165 up 0.0092
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
SEP15 HI 3.72 DEC15 HI 3.83
LOW 3.65 3/4 LOW 3.77
CLOSE3.67 1/4 Up 1 CLOSE 3.78 1/2 Up 1 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC15+DEC15+DEC15
CK Low 0.70 4.37 172.14 0.45 4.24 166.72
CK High 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.50 4.29 168.69
CK Avg 0.74 -0.40 4.41 173.78 0.46 -0.72 4.24 167.05
Essex Cty N/A N/A
Mdsx Low 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.45 4.24 166.72
Mdsx High 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.55 4.34 170.66
Mdsx Avg 0.75 -0.39 4.42 174.11 0.50 -0.68 4.29 168.69
Hensall 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.55 4.34 170.66
Bruce 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.45 4.24 166.72
Putnam 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.45 4.24 166.72
Burford 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.45 4.24 166.72
Port Perry 0.85 4.52 178.04 0.50 4.29 168.69
Norfolk 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.45 4.24 166.72
Palmerston 0.65 4.32 170.17 0.55 4.34 170.66
Varna 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.55 4.34 170.66
Trenton 1.25 4.92 193.79 0.65 4.44 174.60
Winchester 1.20 4.87 191.82 1.00 4.79 188.38
North Gower 1.75 5.42 213.47 0.98 4.77 187.59
Huron FOB 0.85 4.52 178.04 0.55 4.34 170.66
Kent FOB 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.45 4.24 166.72
Lamb FOB 0.75 4.42 174.11 0.45 4.24 166.72
Mdsx FOB 0.85 0.85N/A N/A 4.52 178.04 0.45 4.24 166.72
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.20 4.87 191.82N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth 0.80 0.85N/A N/A 4.47 176.07N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A 1.50 1.47 0.90 1.05 4.84 190.35
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.53 1.47 1.45N/A 5.20 204.81 0.95 4.74 186.41
Cardnl-Ing N/A 2.00 1.90 1.20 1.55 5.34 210.03
W O Feed 1.51 1.10 5.18 204.03
US Rep 1.65 1.24 5.32 209.54
Toledo El. 0.07 3.74 147.16 -0.31 3.47 136.62
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.47 1/2 4.26
HI SD CRN 0.50 4.28 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3165 up 0.0092
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV15 HI 9.09 NOV15 HI 9.09
LOW 8.90 3/4 LOW 8.90 3/4
CLOSE8.93 1/2 Down 10 3/4 CLOSE 8.93 1/2 Down 10 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV15
CK Low 2.36 11.30 415.021.94 10.88 399.59
CK High 2.50 11.44 420.162.05 10.99 403.63
CK Average 2.42 -0.3611.35 417.161.98 -0.8010.92 401.12
Essex Cty N/A N/A
Mdsx Low 2.36 11.30 415.021.92 10.86 398.85
Mdsx High 2.40 11.34 416.491.95 10.89 399.96
Mdsx Average 2.38 -0.4011.32 415.761.94 -0.8410.87 399.40
Hensall 2.43 11.36 417.411.98 10.91 400.87
Bruce 2.40 11.34 416.491.95 10.89 399.96
Putnam 2.55 11.49 422.002.00 10.94 401.79
Burford 2.39 11.33 416.121.95 10.89 399.96
Port Perry 2.36 11.30 415.021.92 10.86 398.85
Norfolk 2.35 11.29 414.651.95 10.89 399.96
Palmerston 2.45 11.39 418.332.00 10.94 401.79
Varna 2.45 11.39 418.332.00 10.94 401.79
Trenton 2.40 11.34 416.492.00 10.94 401.79
Winchester 2.40 11.34 416.492.20 11.14 409.14
North Gower 2.15 11.09 407.302.23 11.17 410.24
Huron FOB 2.65 11.59 425.682.20 11.14 409.14
Kent FOB 2.40 11.34 416.491.95 10.89 399.96
Lambton FOB 2.40 11.34 416.491.95 10.89 399.96
Middlesex FOB2.53 2.73 N/A N/A 11.47 421.272.09 11.03 405.10
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.97 3.10 2.51 2.58 11.91 437.432.64 11.58 425.31
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. 0.49 9.42 346.13-0.43 8.50 312.41
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3165 up 0.0092
Chicago wheat closed narrowly mixed.
SEP15 HI 4.98 1/2 JUL16 HI 5.12 1/4
LOW 4.91 LOW 5.05
CLOSE 4.96 1/4 Up 2 CLOSE 5.08 1/2 Down 1 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly lower to steady.
SEP15 HI 5.10 1/4 SEP16 HI 5.70
LOW 5.04 3/4 LOW 5.65 1/4
CLOSE 5.08 1/4 Unchanged CLOSE 5.68 1/2 Down 1 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.64 1.81 1.48 0.99
CAD $/bu 8.60 6.77 6.44 6.07
CAD $/tonne 316.11 248.68 236.63 223.15
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 1.45 1.05 N/A N/A 1.35 0.65 N/A
London 3.22 1.50 0.88 N/A 1.63 1.24 0.46 N/A
Hensall 3.60 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.65 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Norwich 3.60 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.65 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.60 N/A 0.50 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.65 N/A
Chatham N/A 1.45 0.45 N/A N/A 1.35 0.60 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.50 1.05 0.55 N/A 1.35 0.60 0.20
Varna 3.60 1.50 1.05 N/A 1.85 1.35 0.65 N/A
Mitchell 3.60 1.45 1.05 N/A 1.80 1.40 0.65 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.67 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.78 1.45 0.97 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.69N/A 2.33N/A 3.55N/A 1.97N/A
Toledo El. 5.13US 6.73CA 4.91US 6.43CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.58 1.71 0.79 1.24
CAD $/bu 6.67 6.80 5.88 6.93
CAD $/tonne 244.94 249.76 216.04 254.58
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats 280.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 524.60 - 527.91
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 210.00 - 215.00
--
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.67 ↑ 10 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 9.03 ↓ 15 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 4.96 ↑ 4 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.08 ↓ 1 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 4.74 ↓ 1 cents
Chicago Oats Sep 2.23 ↓ 4 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7646 ↓ 0.40 points
CORN:
On the charts: Following up from last week’s comments, we ran the stops and made a new low on the September contract at $3.46 before recovering and closing at $3.57. Today, August 19 we were about 20 cents higher. This is a minor reversal and as I mentioned last week, we will see if this expands into a genuine reversal of the short term trend in the next couple of weeks. If this recent $3.50 support level does not hold and we get a close below that area, we may attempt another test of the major support around the $3.20 level. We will be switching to the December contract for analysis beginning Wednesday, August 26.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: As much as I try, I have trouble seeing anything bullish about the soybean chart. The major support is still seen at the $9 level and at this point a close below that all-important $9 level could see a rash of sale that would push this market to the mid $8-range. As of this writing, (August 19) the September contract closed at $9.03. The first support I see is around the $8.60 level on September. Hopefully this $9.00 support will hold and we will get a bounce.
Major overhead resistance is still at the $10.50 based on the lead month while the support is seen right around this $9 level. All three indicators are still negative. We will be switching to the November contract for analysis beginning Wednesday, August 26.
WHEAT:
On the charts: There is nothing much new since the August 12 United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report. The news created a selloff which has been the low since the report was released. Since then, we have been trading within a 20 cent range. So far, wheat is still searching for a bottom. There is a chance that based on the chart patterns we could see the bottom as harvest winds down. Of course this is pure speculation - but in the meantime we still need to view this market as bearish until we have reasons to believe different.
The weekly charts are showing signs of good support levels around $4.60. Short term overhead resistance is seen at the $5.50 area on the September contract while major resistance is seen at $6. Short term indicators are pointing to an oversold market but the trend remains down. We will be switching to the December contract for analysis beginning Wednesday, August 26.
HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE August 19, 2015
SWW @ $316.32/MT ($8.61/bu), HRW @ $248.81/MT ($6.77/bu),
HRS @ $221.81/MT ($6.04/bu), SRW @ $236.75/MT ($6.44/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
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University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
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