[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report + Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Aug 12 15:40:44 EDT 2015


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, August 12
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2973 down 0.0175
Chicago corn closed sharply lower.

      SEP15   HI 3.82  3/4                    DEC15    HI 3.93  1/2
             LOW 3.46  1/2                            LOW 3.57  1/2
            CLOSE3.57  1/4  Down 19 1/4             CLOSE 3.68   Down 19 1/2

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC15+DEC15+DEC15
CK Low       0.70                        4.27 168.20  0.45         4.13 162.59
CK High      0.70                        4.27 168.20  0.50         4.18 164.56
CK Avg       0.70                  -0.37 4.27 168.20  0.46 -0.64   4.14 162.92
Essex Cty   N/A                                     N/A
Mdsx Low     0.70                        4.27 168.20  0.45         4.13 162.59
Mdsx High    0.70                        4.27 168.20  0.55         4.23 166.53
Mdsx Avg     0.70                  -0.37 4.27 168.20  0.50 -0.60   4.18 164.56
Hensall      0.70                        4.27 168.20  0.55         4.23 166.53
Bruce        0.65                        4.22 166.23  0.45         4.13 162.59
Putnam       0.55                        4.12 162.30  0.35         4.03 158.65
Burford      0.70                        4.27 168.20  0.45         4.13 162.59
Port Perry   0.80                        4.37 172.14  0.50         4.18 164.56
Norfolk      0.70                        4.27 168.20  0.45         4.13 162.59
Palmerston   0.65                        4.22 166.23  0.55         4.23 166.53
Varna        0.70                        4.27 168.20  0.55         4.23 166.53
Trenton      1.20                        4.77 187.89  0.65         4.33 170.46
Winchester   1.20                        4.77 187.89  1.00         4.68 184.24
North Gower  1.57                        5.14 202.45  0.90         4.58 180.31
Huron FOB    0.80                        4.37 172.14  8.00        11.68 459.82
Kent FOB     0.70                        4.27 168.20  0.45         4.13 162.59
Lamb FOB     0.70                        4.27 168.20  0.45         4.13 162.59
Mdsx FOB     0.85  0.85N/A   N/A         4.42 174.11  0.45         4.13 162.59
FOB SW Que  N/A                                     N/A
Track        1.13                        4.70 184.93N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      N/A
Sarn-Eth     0.80  0.85N/A   N/A         4.37 172.14N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing  N/A    1.50  1.50  0.90                   1.05         4.73 186.21
Pt.Colb-Ing  1.60  1.60  1.50N/A         5.17 203.63  0.95         4.63 182.28
Cardnl-Ing  N/A    2.00  1.90  1.20                   1.55         5.23 205.90
W O Feed     1.31                   0.92 4.88 192.22

US Rep       1.55                   1.16 5.12 201.66
Toledo El.   0.06                        3.64 143.20 -0.31         3.37 132.61

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton    N/A                                     N/A

MID SD CRN                                            0.47   1/2   4.15 1/2
HI SD CRN                                             0.50         4.18
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2973 down 0.0175
Chicago soybeans closed lower to sharply lower.

       NOV15   HI 9.76                NOV15    HI 9.76
              LOW 9.01  1/2                   LOW 9.01  1/2
             CLOSE9.10   Down 61 1/2        CLOSE 9.10   Down 61 1/2

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+NOV1+NOV15
CK Low       2.39                     11.49 422.192.01      11.11 408.22
CK High      2.60                     11.70 429.902.15      11.25 413.37
CK Average   2.52                -0.2011.62 426.782.09 -0.6311.19 410.98
Essex Cty     N/A                                  N/A
Mdsx Low     2.39                     11.49 422.191.99      11.09 407.49
Mdsx High    2.50                     11.60 426.232.05      11.15 409.69
Mdsx Average 2.45                -0.2711.55 424.212.02 -0.7011.12 408.59
Hensall      2.50                     11.60 426.232.08      11.18 410.61
Bruce        2.60                     11.70 429.902.15      11.25 413.37
Putnam       2.24                     11.34 416.671.80      10.90 400.51
Burford      2.42                     11.52 423.292.02      11.12 408.59
Port Perry   2.39                     11.49 422.191.99      11.09 407.49
Norfolk      2.45                     11.55 424.392.05      11.15 409.69
Palmerston   2.55                     11.65 428.062.05      11.15 409.69
Varna        2.50                     11.60 426.232.10      11.20 411.53
Trenton      2.50                     11.60 426.232.15      11.25 413.37
Winchester   2.50                     11.60 426.232.39      11.49 422.19
North Gower  2.40                     11.50 422.552.33      11.43 419.98
Huron FOB    2.70                     11.80 433.582.30      11.40 418.88
Kent FOB     2.50                     11.60 426.232.05      11.15 409.69
Lambton FOB  2.50                     11.60 426.232.05      11.15 409.69
Middlesex FOB2.63 2.82  N/A  N/A      11.73 431.002.22      11.32 415.94

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     2.86 3.05 2.40 2.47      11.96 439.452.53      11.63 427.33
Windsor       N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                  N/A
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC      N/A                                  N/A

Toledo El.   0.74                      9.84 361.56-0.43      8.67 318.62


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2973 down 0.0175
Chicago wheat closed lower.
SEP15      HI     5.14  3/4             JUL16   HI         5.34
           LOW        4.84                      LOW     5.04  1/2
           CLOSE  4.92  1/4  Down 15            CLOSE   5.12  1/2  Down 15 1/2

Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
SEP15      HI     5.23  1/4             SEP16   HI         5.87
           LOW    5.05  1/4                     LOW        5.71
           CLOSE  5.09  1/2  Down 9 3/4         CLOSE   5.74  1/2  Down 9 1/2

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 3.55          1.79            1.40          0.94
CAD $/bu              8.47          6.72            6.33          6.03
CAD $/tonne         311.21        246.80          232.48        221.63


Direct MarkHarvest 2015                 Harvest 2016
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    1.65   1.05    N/A    N/A     1.40   0.65    N/A
London      3.23    1.63   0.88    N/A    1.66    1.77   0.45    N/A
Hensall     3.50    N/A    1.05    N/A    1.80    N/A    0.65    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    1.20    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A   0.75    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Norwich     3.50    N/A    1.05    N/A    1.80    N/A    0.65    N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 3.50    N/A    0.50    N/A    1.80    N/A    0.65    N/A
Chatham      N/A    1.70   0.45    N/A    N/A     1.45   0.65    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.45    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.65    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.50   1.05   0.65    N/A     1.35   0.60   0.20
Varna       3.60    1.50   1.10    N/A    1.85    1.35   0.65    N/A
Mitchell    3.50    1.55   1.05    N/A    1.80    1.40   0.65    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.89    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.91   1.52   1.03    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM     4.59N/A        2.25N/A        3.48N/A        1.92N/A

Toledo El. 5.09US         6.61CA        4.95US          6.42CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.53          1.66            0.75          1.20
CAD $/bu              6.65          6.78            5.88          6.94
CAD $/tonne         244.53        249.30          215.90        255.03

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             290.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats              280.00
Bayport Barley            275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            530.11 - 533.42
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      210.00 - 215.00

______________________________________________________________________________________________
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	Sep	3.57	↓	         15	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Sep	9.18	↓	70	cents
Wheat CBOT	Sep	4.92	↓	10	cents
Wheat Minn.	Sep	5.09	↓	 6	cents
Wheat Kansas	Sep	4.75	↓	15	cents
Chicago Oats	 Sep	2.27	↓	8	cents 
Canadian $	Sep	.7686	↑	1.00	points



CORN:  
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly WASDE report on August 12 and the results sent most of the grains reeling. Corn yields were increased two bushels per acre from 166.8 from the July report to 168.8.  The report also indicated a carryout of 1.713 billion bushels compared to 1.599 billion bushels in the July report.
On the charts:  Following up from last week’s comments, we quickly filled the gap at $3.90 and immediately fell back to the $3.50 level within two days.  We have an expanding wave count that appears as a possible precursor of a trend reversal. This will only be apparent once the dust has settled and, if it works, we will see the results in a couple of weeks once this report date can be identified as a bottom area.  For now, we have to respect the charts and realize that the U.S. markets are still entrenched in a downtrend. On the downside, support is seen at the $3.50 level on the September corn contract, with major support at the $3.20 area. 

SOYBEANS:
The USDA report showed a surprise for the soybean crop as well.  The carryout was pegged at .47 billion bushels up sharply from the July number of .425 billion.  

On the charts:  Once again, our recommendation was to sell above the $10 level based on the September contract. We reached $10.10 on the futures and reversed sharply before the report today ( August 12) which pushed the contract another 60 cents to the downside. We are once again approaching the all- important $9 level. From here we may see more of the same. A range-bound trade between $9.00 and $10.50 once again.  A close below $9 would confirm more pain as the next major support appears to be about a dollar lower on the lead month contract. Major support is still seen at the $9 level and major resistance at the $10.60 based on the lead month.  All three indicators are still negative. 



WHEAT:

USDA's Crop Production report estimated total wheat production at 2.14 billion bushels. Of that, spring wheat accounts for 621 million bushels with a national average yield of 47 bushels per acre. Winter wheat production is seen at 1.44 billion bushels with an average yield of 44.1 bushels per acre

On the charts:  Unlike corn and soybeans, the September wheat contract faired a little better as the futures closed down 15 cents after the report and managed to hover around that $5 area for most of the session. With today’s drop we also ran stops below the last pivot of $4.88 made on June 19. With harvest in full swing and even completed in the Midwest, we could still see a re-test of the old lows around $4.60. 
The weekly charts are showing signs of good support levels around the $4.60. Short term overhead resistance is seen at the $5.50 area on the September contract while major resistance is seen at $6.00.  Support is around $5 and again at $4.60.  Short term indicators are neutral but the main trend is still down.    




HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE August 12, 2015

SWW @ $311.37/MT ($8.47/bu),  HRW @ $246.90/MT ($6.72/bu), 
HRS @ $221.59/MT ($6.03/bu),  SRW @ $232.57/MT ($6.33/bu).


Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


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