[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report plus Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Aug 26 15:47:41 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, August 26
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3303 up 0.0007
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
SEP15 HI 3.69 DEC15 HI 3.80 1/2
LOW 3.61 1/2 LOW 3.72 3/4
CLOSE3.61 3/4 Down 3 3/4 CLOSE 3.73 1/4 Down 3 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC15+DEC15+DEC15
CK Low 0.75 4.37 171.94 0.50 4.23 166.63
CK High 0.80 4.42 173.91 0.55 4.28 168.59
CK Avg 0.77 -0.44 4.38 172.60 0.51 -0.73 4.24 166.95
Essex Cty N/A N/A
Mdsx Low 0.75 4.37 171.94 0.50 4.23 166.63
Mdsx High 0.75 4.37 171.94 0.60 4.33 170.56
Mdsx Avg 0.75 -0.45 4.37 171.94 0.55 -0.69 4.28 168.59
Hensall 0.78 4.39 172.93 0.60 4.33 170.56
Bruce 0.75 4.37 171.94 0.50 4.23 166.63
Putnam 0.75 4.37 171.94 0.50 4.23 166.63
Burford 0.75 4.37 171.94 0.50 4.23 166.63
Port Perry 0.80 4.42 173.91 0.55 4.28 168.59
Norfolk 0.80 4.42 173.91 0.50 4.23 166.63
Palmerston 0.75 4.37 171.94 0.55 4.28 168.59
Varna 0.80 4.42 173.91 0.60 4.33 170.56
Trenton 1.40 5.02 197.53 0.65 4.38 172.53
Winchester 1.70 5.32 209.34 1.10 4.83 190.25
North Gower 1.75 5.37 211.31 1.10 4.83 190.25
Huron FOB 0.90 4.52 177.85 0.60 4.33 170.56
Kent FOB 0.80 4.42 173.91 0.50 4.23 166.63
Lamb FOB 0.80 4.42 173.91 0.50 4.23 166.63
Mdsx FOB 0.85 0.85N/A N/A 4.47 175.88 0.50 4.23 166.63
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.23 4.84 190.64N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth 1.30 1.30 1.30 0.85 4.92 193.59 1.30 5.03 198.12
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A 1.55 1.50 1.00 1.05 4.78 188.28
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.55 1.50N/A 0.95 4.68 184.34
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.65 1.20 1.90 5.63 221.74
W O Feed 1.58 1.14 5.20 204.54
US Rep 1.73 1.29 5.35 210.52
Toledo El. 0.03 3.64 143.46 -0.32 3.41 134.35
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.52 1/2 4.25 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.55 4.28 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3303 up 0.0007
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.
NOV15 HI 8.82 NOV15 HI 8.82
LOW 8.64 LOW 8.64
CLOSE8.65 Down 12 3/4 CLOSE 8.65 Down 12 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV15
CK Low 2.00 10.65 391.322.00 10.65 391.32
CK High 2.45 11.10 407.862.15 10.80 396.83
CK Average 2.31 -0.5710.96 402.712.06 -0.8310.71 393.34
Essex Cty N/A N/A
Mdsx Low 2.26 10.91 400.872.01 10.66 391.69
Mdsx High 2.40 11.05 406.022.05 10.70 393.16
Mdsx Average 2.33 -0.5510.98 403.452.03 -0.8510.68 392.42
Hensall 2.40 11.05 406.022.05 10.70 393.16
Bruce 2.40 11.05 406.022.05 10.70 393.16
Putnam 2.53 11.18 410.792.00 10.65 391.32
Burford 2.29 10.94 401.982.04 10.69 392.79
Port Perry 2.26 10.91 400.872.01 10.66 391.69
Norfolk 2.30 10.95 402.342.05 10.70 393.16
Palmerston 2.35 11.00 404.182.00 10.65 391.32
Varna 2.40 11.05 406.022.05 10.70 393.16
Trenton 2.00 10.65 391.322.00 10.65 391.32
Winchester 2.27 10.92 401.242.27 10.92 401.24
North Gower 2.32 10.97 403.082.31 10.96 402.71
Huron FOB 2.60 11.25 413.372.25 10.90 400.51
Kent FOB 2.35 11.00 404.182.05 10.70 393.16
Lambton FOB 2.35 11.00 404.182.05 10.70 393.16
Middlesex FOB2.48 N/A N/A N/A 11.13 408.962.23 10.88 399.77
PROCESSORS
Hamilton N/A 2.47 2.54 2.61 2.47 11.12 408.59
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. 0.16 8.81 323.71-0.44 8.21 301.67
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3303 up 0.0007
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP15 HI 4.99 3/4 JUL16 HI 5.15 1/2
LOW 4.88 1/2 LOW 5.05 3/4
CLOSE 4.89 3/4 Down 5 1/4 CLOSE 5.08 Down 3 1/2
Minni wheat closed narrowly mixed.
SEP15 HI 5.01 3/4 SEP16 HI 5.66 1/2
LOW 4.92 LOW 5.60
CLOSE 4.96 1/4 Down 1/2 CLOSE 5.63 Up 1
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.76 1.83 1.56 0.99
CAD $/bu 8.66 6.73 6.46 5.95
CAD $/tonne 318.24 247.22 237.42 218.57
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 1.45 1.05 N/A N/A 1.35 0.65 N/A
London 3.36 1.62 0.97 N/A 1.76 1.36 0.56 N/A
Hensall 3.60 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.65 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Norwich 3.60 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.65 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.60 N/A 0.50 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.65 N/A
Chatham N/A 1.45 0.45 N/A N/A 1.35 0.65 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.50 1.05 0.75 N/A 1.35 0.60 0.20
Varna 3.60 1.40 1.10 N/A 1.85 1.25 0.65 N/A
Mitchell 3.60 1.40 1.05 N/A 1.80 1.40 0.65 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.84 1.58 0.99 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.83N/A 2.43N/A 3.69N/A 2.09N/A
Toledo El. 5.07US 6.75CA 4.90US 6.53CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.69 1.82 0.89 1.34
CAD $/bu 6.77 6.90 5.97 6.97
CAD $/tonne 248.81 253.71 219.42 256.16
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats 280.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 509.72 - 525.15
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 210.00 - 215.00
--
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.62 ↓ 05 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 8.78 ↓ 25 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 4.90 ↓ 06 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 4.96 ↓ 12 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 4.66 ↓ 08 cents
Chicago Oats Sep 2.11 ↓ 12 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7498 ↓ 1.40 points
CORN:
On the charts: This Friday, most traders will be following the December corn futures prices. For our technical analysis only, I wish to remain with the September contract, as many of our signals are missed by those contracts switching before the actual expiry. In the case of charting, the lead month registers the price-points on the nearest weekly charts. This can result in signal distortion and missed opportunities. Therefore, for those following technical formations, we will continue with the September signals even though it won’t be the contract that you will be trading.
The weekly charts show solid support at the $3.20 level and minor support at the $3.50 level both based on the September contract prices. All indicators are still negative, and the market is still in bear mode.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: This was an important week for soybeans on a technical outlook, as our much touted $9.00 support line was violated with a close below that level. This important support line is a one year bottom, and we closed below it for the first time since 2010. This sets up a continuation move that could see a test of the $8.00 area as we approach harvest. Of course this is purely technical, and nothing is assured.
The first support I see is around the $8.60 level, based on the September contract, and below that there is very little support. Unless something outside the technical picture occurs, we should consider rallies back above $9.00 as selling opportunities. The one positive we have in all of this is our weak Canadian dollar which is responsible for a strong local basis.
WHEAT:
On the charts: As I have mentioned for the past couple of months, the wheat chart looks more constructive than most. The current $4.60 level is looking good, and providing we don’t see another meltdown in the equity markets, we are hoping that this level will hold. There is a chance that based on the chart patterns we could see the bottom as harvest winds down. This is pure speculation, but in the meantime we still need to view this market as bearish until we have reasons to believe differently.
The weekly charts are showing signs of good support levels around $4.60. Short term overhead resistance is seen at the $5.25 area on the September contract while major resistance has moved down to the $5.50 area. We will be switching to the December contract for pricing on August 28; however, we will continue to monitor the September contract for technical analysis.
HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE August 26, 2015
SWW @ $318.58/MT ($8.67/bu), HRW @ $247.51/MT ($6.74/bu),
HRS @ $218.60/MT ($5.95/bu), SRW @ $237.71/MT ($6.47/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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