[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Dec 3 15:24:36 EST 2014
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, December 3
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.136 down 0.0040
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
MAR15 HI 3.82 1/2 DEC15 HI 4.12 1/4
LOW 3.77 1/4 LOW 4.06 1/4
CLOSE3.82 Up 3/4 CLOSE 4.11 3/4 Up 1 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR15+MAR15+MAR15
CK Low 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
CK High 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
CK Avg 0.45 -0.07 4.27 168.10 0.00 -0.56 4.12 162.10
Essex Cty 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.05 4.17 164.07
Mdsx Low 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Mdsx High 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Mdsx Avg 0.45 -0.07 4.27 168.10 0.00 -0.56 4.12 162.10
Hensall 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Bruce 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Putnam 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Burford 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Port Perry 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Norfolk 0.50 4.32 170.07 0.00 4.12 162.10
Palmerston 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Varna 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Trenton 0.60 4.42 174.01 0.05 4.17 164.07
Winchester 0.85 4.67 183.85 0.15 4.27 168.00
North Gower 0.85 4.67 183.85 0.05 4.17 164.07
Huron FOB 0.55 4.37 172.04 0.05 4.17 164.07
Kent FOB 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Lamb FOB 0.45 4.27 168.10 0.00 4.12 162.10
Mdsx FOB 0.45N/A N/A N/A 4.27 168.10 0.15 4.27 168.00
FOB SW Que 0.83 4.65 183.06N/A
Track 0.85 4.67 183.85N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.70 4.47 175.98 N/A
Sarn-Eth 0.60 0.70 0.75N/A 4.42 174.01N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.02 4.77 187.79N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.07 4.82 189.76N/A
Cardnl-Ing 1.00 1.20 1.25 1.22 4.82 189.76N/A
W O Feed 0.96 0.81 4.78 188.18
US Rep 1.10 0.95 4.92 193.69
Toledo El. -0.26 3.56 140.09 -0.49 3.63 142.85
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.55 4.37172 0.25 4.37172
MID SD CRN 0.45 4.271
HI SD CRN 0.45 4.271
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.136 down 0.0040
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
JAN15 HI 9.99 1/2 NOV15 HI 9.84
LOW 9.83 3/4 LOW 9.69 1/2
CLOSE9.98 1/4 Up 2 1/2 CLOSE 9.81 3/4 Up 1
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR15
CK Low 0.84 10.82 397.660.42 10.24 376.16
CK High 0.90 10.88 399.860.55 10.37 380.94
CK Average 0.87 -0.5010.85 398.580.50 -0.8410.32 379.23
Essex Cty 1.15 11.13 409.050.59 10.41 382.41
Mdsx Low 0.82 10.80 396.920.40 10.22 375.43
Mdsx High 0.85 10.83 398.030.50 10.32 379.10
Mdsx Average 0.84 -0.5310.82 397.480.45 -0.9010.27 377.27
Hensall 0.85 10.83 398.030.50 10.32 379.10
Bruce 0.85 10.83 398.030.50 10.32 379.10
Putnam 0.90 10.88 399.860.55 10.37 380.94
Burford 0.85 10.83 398.030.43 10.25 376.53
Port Perry 0.82 10.80 396.920.40 10.22 375.43
Norfolk 0.85 10.83 398.030.50 10.32 379.10
Palmerston 0.85 10.83 398.030.50 10.32 379.10
Varna 0.85 10.83 398.030.50 10.32 379.10
Trenton 0.90 10.88 399.860.55 10.37 380.94
Winchester 1.30 11.28 414.560.84 10.66 391.60
North Gower 1.37 11.35 417.131.03 10.85 398.58
Huron FOB 1.00 10.98 403.540.60 10.42 382.78
Kent FOB 0.85 10.83 398.030.50 10.32 379.10
Lambton FOB 0.85 10.83 398.030.50 10.32 379.10
Middlesex FOB1.02 N/A N/A N/A 11.00 404.270.48 10.30 378.37
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 1.47 1.42 1.43 1.50 11.45 420.810.95 10.77 395.64
Windsor 1.37 1.38 1.29 1.30 11.35 417.130.81 10.63 390.49
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 1.53 N/A N/A N/A 11.51 423.010.96 10.78 396.01
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 1.68 11.66 428.521.62 11.44 420.26
Toledo El. -0.25 9.73 357.60-0.43 9.39 344.86
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.136 down 0.0040
Chicago wheat closed lower.
MAR15 HI 6.06 1/2 JUL15 HI 6.15 3/4
LOW 5.85 1/4 LOW 5.95 1/4
CLOSE 5.89 1/2 Down 13 3/4 CLOSE 5.99 Down 13 3/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower to lower.
MAR15 HI 6.32 3/4 JUL15 HI 6.48 1/2
LOW 6.18 3/4 LOW 6.33
CLOSE 6.21 1/4 Down 11 1/4 CLOSE 6.34 1/4 Down 13 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.49 1.09 0.64 0.28
CAD $/bu 7.38 6.99 6.53 6.50
CAD $/tonne 271.35 256.73 240.01 238.66
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A 0.80 0.16 N/A
London 1.32 0.86 0.47 N/A 0.65 0.77 0.08 N/A
Hensall 1.35 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.10 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.05 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.36 N/A N/A N/A -0.05 N/A
Norwich 1.35 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.15 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 1.35 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.10 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.85 0.45 N/A N/A 0.80 0.15 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A N/A 0.15 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.00 0.45 0.30 N/A 0.90 0.35 N/A
Varna 1.35 0.95 0.50 N/A 0.60 0.80 0.10 N/A
Mitchell 1.35 0.90 0.50 N/A 0.60 0.80 0.10 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.04
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 0.87 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.04N/A N/A N/A 1.05N/A
Toledo El. N/A 5.81US 6.61CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.59 0.99 0.14 -0.04
CAD $/bu 6.58 6.98 6.13 6.30
CAD $/tonne 241.89 256.52 225.18 231.55
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 285.00 - 310.00
Bayport Oats 310.00
Bayport Barley 270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 621.49 - 624.80
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 155.00 - 160.00
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.82 ↓ 5 cents
Soybeans CBOT Jan 9.99 ↓ 48 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 5.89 ↑ 25 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 6.21 ↑ 21 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 6.38 ↑ 18 cents
Canadian $ Mar 0.8778 ↓ 92 points
CORN:
A Reuters survey puts the 2014 Canadian corn crop at 11.6 million tonnes at the end of November, up from 11.4 million previously but down on 14.2 million a year ago.
On the charts: After a sideways week, corn failed to penetrate the $4.00 level and reverse the trend; and as of this writing, we are sitting at $3.80 on the March contract. We could see a pull-back going into delivery of the December contract month. Overhead resistance is pegged at $3.90 with major resistance at the $4.15-$4.25 basis the March contract. Support is seen at at $3.50-$3.60. The main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest producing state, estimated output for 2015 at 27.89 million tonnes versus 26.29 million a year ago. They see plantings at 8.87 million hectares versus 8.44 million a year ago
On the charts: Both short and long term indicators are negative as soybeans remain the most bearish of the grains. A possible test of the $9.15 level could be in the cards and from a technical point of view, it is an important level. Our long term indicators are slowing which raises the possibility that we could see a trend reversal after the Christmas holidays but for now they remain in a downtrend. Support is seen at the $9.75 level and then again at the important $9.00 - $9.20 basis the January contract.
WHEAT:
Traders expect StatsCan to peg Canada's fall wheat crop at 27.8 million tonnes on December 4, up from the 27.5 million estimated in October, but down sharply on last year's record 37.5 million tonnes. Meanwhile, a report from Reuters suggests buyers of Canadian wheat are increasingly complaining about quality ever since Ottawa changed how its biggest crop is sold and inspected, raising the risk the world's third largest exporter will lose sales to rivals like the United States.
On the charts: Our $6.00 target was reached and surpassed this week as the market closed December 3 at $6.03 on our March contract. This gave us our confirmation that wheat has turned bullish. With that being said, we can expect a correction before attempting another assault on the resistance level of $6.10-$6.20 basis the March contract. Trend is now up with support seen at $5.75 and major support at $5.25 on March.
HARVEST CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE DECEMBER 3, 2014
SWW @ $271.87/mt ($7.40/bu), SRW @ $240.48/mt ($6.54/bu),
HRW @ $257.22/mt ($7.00/bu), HRS @ $239.01/mt ($6.50/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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