[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Dec 10 15:31:21 EST 2014
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, December 10
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1482 up 0.0060
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
MAR15 HI 3.98 1/4 DEC15 HI 4.25 3/4
LOW 3.89 1/4 LOW 4.16 3/4
CLOSE3.93 3/4 Down 1 1/2 CLOSE 4.21 Down 2 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR15+MAR15+MAR15
CK Low 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.00 4.21 165.74
CK High 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.05 4.26 167.71
CK Avg 0.50 -0.09 4.44 174.70 0.04 -0.59 4.25 167.38
Essex Cty 0.54 4.48 176.27 0.09 4.30 169.28
Mdsx Low 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.05 4.26 167.71
Mdsx High 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.05 4.26 167.71
Mdsx Avg 0.50 -0.09 4.44 174.70 0.05 -0.58 4.26 167.71
Hensall 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.05 4.26 167.71
Bruce 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.05 4.26 167.71
Putnam 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.05 4.26 167.71
Burford 0.55 4.49 176.67 0.05 4.26 167.71
Port Perry 0.45 4.39 172.73 0.05 4.26 167.71
Norfolk 0.55 4.49 176.67 0.05 4.26 167.71
Palmerston 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.05 4.26 167.71
Varna 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.05 4.26 167.71
Trenton 0.70 4.64 182.57 0.05 4.26 167.71
Winchester 0.85 4.79 188.48 0.15 4.36 171.65
North Gower 0.85 4.79 188.48 0.05 4.26 167.71
Huron FOB 0.55 4.49 176.67 0.10 4.31 169.68
Kent FOB 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.05 4.26 167.71
Lamb FOB 0.50 4.44 174.70 0.05 4.26 167.71
Mdsx FOB 0.55N/A N/A N/A 4.49 176.67 0.15 4.36 171.65
FOB SW Que 1.05 4.99 196.35 0.40 4.61 181.49
Track 0.88 4.81 189.46N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A 0.80 0.85 0.80 N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.70 4.59 180.60 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 0.80 0.85 0.80 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing 1.05 1.05 1.10 1.07 4.99 196.35N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing 0.90 1.00 1.15 1.12 4.84 190.44N/A
Cardnl-Ing 0.95 1.20 1.25 1.22 4.89 192.41N/A
W O Feed 0.98 0.81 4.92 193.59
US Rep 1.15 0.98 5.09 200.29
Toledo El. -0.21 3.73 146.87 -0.49 3.72 146.29
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.60 4.54178 5/8 0.32 4.53178 1/3
MID SD CRN 0.50 4.43 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.50 4.43 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1482 up 0.0060
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.
JAN15 HI 10.60 1/4 NOV15 HI 10.30
LOW 10.27 3/4 LOW 10.04 1/4
CLOSE10.32 Down 17 1/4 CLOSE 10.09 1/2 Down 10 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR15
CK Low 1.00 11.32 415.940.50 10.60 389.30
CK High 1.05 11.37 417.780.57 10.67 391.87
CK Average 1.01 -0.5311.33 416.240.55 -0.9610.64 390.95
Essex Cty 1.27 11.59 425.860.98 11.08 406.94
Mdsx Low 0.98 11.30 415.200.50 10.60 389.30
Mdsx High 1.00 11.32 415.940.55 10.65 391.14
Mdsx Average 0.99 -0.5511.31 415.570.53 -0.9810.62 390.22
Hensall 1.00 11.32 415.940.50 10.60 389.30
Bruce 1.00 11.32 415.940.50 10.60 389.30
Putnam 0.95 11.27 414.100.50 10.60 389.30
Burford 1.01 11.33 416.310.58 10.68 392.24
Port Perry 0.98 11.30 415.200.55 10.65 391.14
Norfolk 1.05 11.37 417.780.55 10.65 391.14
Palmerston 1.00 11.32 415.940.55 10.65 391.14
Varna 0.90 11.22 412.260.50 10.60 389.30
Trenton 0.95 11.27 414.100.55 10.65 391.14
Winchester 1.40 11.72 430.640.95 11.05 405.83
North Gower 1.46 11.78 432.841.16 11.26 413.55
Huron FOB 1.15 11.47 421.450.60 10.70 392.97
Kent FOB 1.00 11.32 415.940.55 10.65 391.14
Lambton FOB 1.00 11.32 415.940.55 10.65 391.14
Middlesex FOB1.21 N/A N/A N/A 11.53 423.650.65 10.75 394.81
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 1.69 1.64 1.66 1.73 12.01 441.291.10 11.20 411.35
Windsor 1.49 1.51 1.47 1.48 11.81 433.941.21 11.31 415.39
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 1.60 N/A N/A N/A 11.92 437.991.23 11.33 416.12
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 1.89 12.21 448.641.80 11.90 437.07
Toledo El. -0.21 10.11 371.60-0.44 9.66 354.88
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1482 up 0.0060
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
MAR15 HI 5.85 1/4 JUL15 HI 5.92 1/2
LOW 5.75 1/4 LOW 5.83 1/4
CLOSE 5.81 3/4 Down 4 CLOSE 5.88 1/4 Down 4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
MAR15 HI 6.08 JUL15 HI 6.25 1/4
LOW 5.96 1/2 LOW 6.13 1/4
CLOSE 6.04 1/2 Down 3 1/2 CLOSE 6.21 1/4 Down 3 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.56 1.15 0.69 0.33
CAD $/bu 7.37 6.97 6.51 6.37
CAD $/tonne 270.94 256.17 239.28 234.11
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.51 N/A N/A 0.90 0.19 N/A
London 1.39 0.94 0.53 N/A 0.72 0.84 0.15 N/A
Hensall 1.35 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.15 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.15 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.42 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 N/A
Norwich 1.35 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.20 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 1.35 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.15 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.90 0.45 N/A N/A 0.90 0.15 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A N/A 0.15 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.00 0.45 0.30 N/A 0.95 0.15 N/A
Varna 1.35 0.95 0.50 N/A 0.60 0.90 0.15 N/A
Mitchell 1.35 0.90 0.50 N/A 0.60 0.90 0.15 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.25 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.02
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 1.04 N/A N/A N/A 0.56 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.10N/A N/A N/A 1.11N/A
Toledo El. N/A 5.70US 6.55CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.65 1.05 0.19 0.01
CAD $/bu 6.53 6.93 6.07 6.22
CAD $/tonne 239.91 254.69 223.02 228.51
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 285.00 - 310.00
Bayport Oats 310.00
Bayport Barley 270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 638.36 - 646.08
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 165.00 - 170.00
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.94 ↑ 12 cents
Soybeans CBOT Jan 10.32 ↑ 33 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 5.82 ↓ 7 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 6.05 ↓ 16 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 6.18 ↓ 20 cents
Canadian $ Mar 0.8680 ↓ 98 points
CORN:
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported world corn production is up by about 1.25 million tonnes this month, with ending stocks up 700k tonnes.
On the charts: This week has finally turned the tide for the intermediate trend on corn. We now have both short term and medium term indicators in bullish mode. Overhead resistance is pegged at $3.90 and again at the $4.15-$4.25 basis the March contract. Support is seen at $3.50-$3.60 with major support at the $3.25 level basis the lead month.
SOYBEANS:
The USDA reported overall world soybean carryout is down 400k tonnes - mostly as a result of a cut to U.S. stocks.
On the charts: This week also saw buy signals in the daily soybean chart. Short term indicators turned positive but the long term trend has a lot of work to do. The March contract is now focusing on an upside targets of $11. The price swings remain very volatile and weekly moves of more than $1.00 are very possible. A close above $11 could turn our medium term indicators positive, and if that happens, we could see a winter rally into the $11.50 range. Keep in mind that the long term indicators are still negative and the main trend is still down. Any rallies into the $11-11.50 area should be viewed as possible selling opportunities until we get a trend change.
WHEAT:
The USDA reports Canada has the largest change in stocks according to Statistics Canada. Canadian wheat stocks were up 1.8 MMT this month to 29.3 MMT.
On the charts: Our $5.75 support spoken of last week is being tested as of this writing. Today’s (December 10) USDA report showed little change in U.S. stocks and should keep the markets at bay into the holidays before another assault on the $6.10 level. Main trend indicators are positive with support seen at $5.50-75 with major support at $5.25 on March contract. Overhead resistance remains at the 6.10-6.25 level and then more severe resistance at the $6.50 level.
HARVEST CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE DECEMBER 10, 2014
SWW @ $271.67/mt ($7.39/bu), SRW @ $239.92/mt ($6.53/bu),
HRW @ $256.85/mt ($6.99/bu), HRS @ $235.26/mt ($6.40/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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