Wednesday, December 3, 2014
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Mar
3.82
?
          5
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Jan
9.99
?
48
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar
5.89
?
25
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar
6.21
?
21
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar
6.38
?
18
cents
 
 
 


 
Canadian $
Mar
0.8778
?
92
points


CORN:   
A Reuters survey puts the 2014 Canadian corn crop at 11.6 million tonnes at the end of November, up from 11.4 million previously but down on 14.2 million a year ago.
On the charts:  After a sideways week, corn failed to penetrate the $4.00 level and reverse the trend; and as of this writing, we are sitting at $3.80 on the March contract. We could see a pull-back going into delivery of the December contract month. Overhead resistance is pegged at $3.90 with major resistance at the $4.15-$4.25 basis the March contract. Support is seen at at $3.50-$3.60. The main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest producing state, estimated output for 2015 at 27.89 million tonnes versus 26.29 million a year ago. They see plantings at 8.87 million hectares versus 8.44 million a year ago

On the charts:  Both short and long term indicators are negative as soybeans remain the most bearish of the grains. A possible test of the $9.15 level could be in the cards and from a technical point of view, it is an important level. Our long term indicators are slowing which raises the possibility that we could see a trend reversal after the Christmas holidays but for now they remain in a downtrend. Support is seen at the $9.75 level and then again at the important $9.00 - $9.20 basis the January contract.

WHEAT:

Traders expect StatsCan to peg Canada's fall wheat crop at 27.8 million tonnes on December 4, up from the 27.5 million estimated in October, but down sharply on last year's record 37.5 million tonnes. Meanwhile, a report from Reuters suggests buyers of Canadian wheat are increasingly complaining about quality ever since Ottawa changed how its biggest crop is sold and inspected, raising the risk the world's third largest exporter will lose sales to rivals like the United States. 

On the charts:  Our $6.00 target was reached and surpassed this week as the market closed December 3 at $6.03 on our March contract.  This gave us our confirmation that wheat has turned bullish.  With that being said, we can expect a correction before attempting another assault on the resistance level of $6.10-$6.20 basis the March contract. Trend is now up with support seen at $5.75 and major support at $5.25 on March.
HARVEST CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE DECEMBER 3, 2014

SWW @ $271.87/mt ($7.40/bu), SRW @ $240.48/mt ($6.54/bu),
HRW @ $257.22/mt ($7.00/bu), HRS @ $239.01/mt ($6.50/bu).



Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


       Ontario Grain Market Commentary for December 3 2014