[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Sep 13 15:30:43 EDT 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, September 13
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.297 down 0.0001
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
DEC18 HI 3.55 3/4 DEC18 HI 3.55 3/4
LOW 3.48 3/4 LOW 3.48 3/4
CLOSE3.50 1/2 Down 2 CLOSE 3.50 1/2 Down 2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC18+DEC18+MAR19
CK Low 1.10 4.61 181.29 0.90 4.41 173.42
CK High 1.25 4.76 187.20 0.95 4.46 175.39
CK Avg 1.13 0.07 4.64 182.60 0.93 -0.07 4.44 174.73
Essex Cty 1.15 4.66 183.26 0.95 4.46 175.39
Mdsx Low 1.10 4.61 181.29 0.95 4.46 175.39
Mdsx High 1.10 4.61 181.29 0.95 4.46 175.39
Mdsx Avg 1.10 0.05 4.61 181.29 0.95 -0.06 4.46 175.39
Hensall 1.13 4.63 182.28 0.95 4.46 175.39
Bruce 1.15 4.66 183.26 0.90 4.41 173.42
Putnam N/A 0.90 4.41 173.42
Burford 1.10 4.61 181.29 0.95 4.46 175.39
Port Perry 1.10 4.61 181.29 0.95 4.46 175.39
Norfolk 1.15 4.66 183.26 0.95 4.46 175.39
Palmerston 1.25 4.76 187.20 0.95 4.46 175.39
Varna 1.15 4.66 183.26 0.95 4.46 175.39
Trenton N/A 0.95 4.46 175.39
Winchester N/A 1.10 4.61 181.29
North Gower 1.08 4.59 180.50 1.25 4.76 187.20
Huron FOB 1.35 4.86 191.13 1.01 4.52 177.75
Kent FOB 1.35 4.86 191.13 0.97 4.48 176.17
Lamb FOB 1.25 4.76 187.20 1.05 4.56 179.32
Mdsx FOB 1.40N/A N/A N/A 4.91 193.10 1.05 4.56 179.32
FOB SW Que 1.89 5.40 212.39N/A
Track 1.60 5.11 200.97N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.23 N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.31 N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.45 1.20 1.20 1.20 4.71 185.23
Sarn-Eth 1.30N/A 1.10N/A 4.81 189.16 1.10 4.61 181.29
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A 1.50 1.25 1.30 1.25 4.76 187.20
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.45* 4.96 195.07
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.35 1.40 1.35 4.86 191.13
W O Feed 1.77 5.28 207.75
US Rep 1.57 5.08 199.79
Toledo El. -0.32 3.18 125.22 -0.32 3.18 125.27
MID SD CRN 0.92 1/2 4.43
HI SD CRN 0.95 4.45 1/2
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.297 down 0.0001
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV18 HI 8.46 1/4 NOV18 HI 8.46 1/4
LOW 8.32 LOW 8.32
CLOSE8.33 1/4 Down 6 3/4 CLOSE 8.33 1/4 Down 6 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+JAN19
CK Low 2.35 10.68 392.512.45 10.78 396.19
CK High 2.45 10.78 396.192.55 10.88 399.86
CK Average 2.39 -0.0710.72 393.982.52 0.06 10.85 398.58
Essex Cty 2.40 10.73 394.352.40 10.73 394.35
Mdsx Low 2.39 10.72 393.982.50 10.83 398.03
Mdsx High 2.39 10.72 393.982.57 10.90 400.60
Mdsx Average 2.39 -0.0710.72 393.982.54 0.08 10.87 399.31
Hensall N/A 2.53 10.86 398.94
Bruce 2.50 10.83 398.032.65 10.98 403.54
Putnam N/A 2.55 10.88 399.86
Burford 2.43 10.76 395.452.61 10.94 402.07
Port Perry 2.36 10.69 392.882.54 10.87 399.50
Norfolk 2.45 10.78 396.192.55 10.88 399.86
Palmerston 2.35 10.68 392.512.50 10.83 398.03
Varna N/A 2.55 10.88 399.86
Trenton N/A 2.55 10.88 399.86
Winchester N/A 2.54 10.87 399.50
North Gower N/A 2.70 11.03 405.37
Huron FOB 2.65 10.98 403.542.65 10.98 403.54
Kent FOB 2.45 10.78 396.192.55 10.88 399.86
Lambton FOB 2.50 10.83 398.032.70 11.03 405.37
Middlesex FOB2.56 2.59 2.72 2.71 10.89 400.232.59 10.92 401.33
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.49 10.82 397.662.49 10.82 397.66
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 2.80 11.13 409.05
Prescott N/A 2.79 11.12 408.68
Toledo El. -0.65 7.68 282.34-0.65 7.69 282.43
Exchange rate was 1.297 down 0.0001
Chicago wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
DEC18 HI 5.10 JUL19 HI 5.47 3/4
LOW 4.95 1/4 LOW 5.36 1/2
CLOSE 4.97 Down 9 3/4 CLOSE 5.38 1/4 Down 6 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC18 HI 5.67 3/4 SEP19 HI 6.05 1/4
LOW 5.60 1/4 LOW 6.01
CLOSE 5.62 Down 3 CLOSE 6.02 1/4 Down 1 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.02 1.22 1.02 0.50
CAD $/bu 5.99 6.19 5.99 6.12
CAD $/tonne 220.18 227.32 220.18 224.94
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
London 0.79 0.99 0.73 N/A 1.16 1.16 0.83 N/A
Hensall 0.90 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.95 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Bruce 0.85 1.15 0.80 0.40 1.15 1.30 0.95 0.65
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.97 N/A
Norwich 0.90 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.95 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.00 0.80 N/A N/A 1.20 0.95 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.90 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.95 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.15 0.95 0.55 N/A 1.10 1.05 N/A
Varna 1.00 1.20 0.80 N/A 1.15 1.30 0.95 N/A
Mitchell 0.90 1.05 0.80 N/A 1.15 1.25 0.95 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.02 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.10 1.00 0.50 N/A 1.21 1.16 0.40
W O Feed 1.48
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.41 N/A N/A N/A 1.70 N/A
Toledo El. 4.82US 6.25CA 5.23US 6.76CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.12 1.18 1.12 0.40
CAD $/bu 6.50 6.57 6.50 6.43
CAD $/tonne 238.94 241.31 238.94 236.09
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 498.69
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 220.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for September 12, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, September 12, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.51 ↓ 14 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.38 ↑ 01 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.03 ↓ 18 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.65 ↑ 12 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.05 ↓ 15 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.43 ↓ 03 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7698 ↑ 1.05 points
Corn:
Due to my attendance at Canada’s Outdoor Farm Show this will be a shortened commentary.
We are now getting the test of the double bottom at the $3.50 level that I spoke of last week, and there is still a better than average chance we will visit the $3.30 level on the front month futures before the end of September. Major support is closer to the $3 level. With the September futures about to expire, we may get a temporary lift in the grain prices going into next week.
Initial support is seen at the $3.50 level and more significant support at the $3.30 level on the December futures.
All indicators are neutral to bearish and the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
Looking at the weekly and monthly chart, we remain bearish and I feel we could challenge the lows of $8 heading on the November futures contract. The charts continue to look bearish and the flag we mentioned in previous reports suggest a break in prices which could propel us towards the $7 price before Christmas. This, of course, is just my opinion and my analysis of the charts.
All indicators are negative with immediate overhead resistance now at the $8.50 level, while initial support is seen at the $8.20 level based on the December futures. Our $8.20 lows are very critical at this point and a retest of this area, although not expected, would not be a good sign technically. The primary trend remains down.
Wheat:
Our $4.90 target on the downside in the December futures are within striking distance as we are currently trading at $5 on the December futures. With the September expiry on September 13, there is a good chance we will see some relief once that contract expires.
The weakness in the other grains are weighing on wheat, but unless we break down in soybeans and corn as described above, wheat could limit its sell-off to a simple re-test of this summer’s lows at the $4.50 level.
Initial support is still seen at the $4.90 level on December futures while overhead resistance is now back at $5.50. Major support is closer to $4, but unless we see a complete meltdown in corn and beans, the likelihood of seeing those number are slim.
Short and intermediate term indicators are negative while the primary trend is still mildly bullish.
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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