[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Sep 6 15:34:38 EDT 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, September 6
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3122 down 0.0037
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
DEC18 HI 3.67 3/4 DEC18 HI 3.67 3/4
LOW 3.63 1/2 LOW 3.63 1/2
CLOSE3.66 1/4 Up 1 CLOSE 3.66 1/4 Up 1
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC18+DEC18+MAR19
CK Low 1.10 4.76 187.49 0.90 4.56 179.62
CK High 1.25 4.91 193.40 0.95 4.61 181.59
CK Avg 1.14 0.00 4.80 189.13 0.93 -0.17 4.59 180.60
Essex Cty 1.15 4.81 189.46 0.95 4.61 181.59
Mdsx Low 1.10 4.76 187.49 0.90 4.56 179.62
Mdsx High 1.10 4.76 187.49 0.90 4.56 179.62
Mdsx Avg 1.10 -0.03 4.76 187.49 0.90 -0.19 4.56 179.62
Hensall 1.13 4.79 188.48 0.90 4.56 179.62
Bruce 1.15 4.81 189.46 0.90 4.56 179.62
Putnam N/A 0.90 4.56 179.62
Burford 1.10 4.76 187.49 0.95 4.61 181.59
Port Perry 1.10 4.76 187.49 0.95 4.61 181.59
Norfolk 1.15 4.81 189.46 0.95 4.61 181.59
Palmerston 1.25 4.91 193.40 0.95 4.61 181.59
Varna 1.15 4.81 189.46 0.90 4.56 179.62
Trenton 1.15 4.81 189.46 1.00 4.66 183.55
Winchester N/A 1.25 4.91 193.40
North Gower 1.05 4.71 185.52 1.25 4.91 193.40
Huron FOB 1.40 5.06 199.30 1.01 4.67 183.95
Kent FOB 1.40 5.06 199.30 0.97 4.63 182.37
Lamb FOB 1.40 5.06 199.30 1.00 4.66 183.55
Mdsx FOB 1.40N/A N/A N/A 5.06 199.30 1.05 4.71 185.52
FOB SW Que 1.94 5.60 220.56N/A
Track 1.58 5.24 206.19N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.19 N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.33 N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.50 1.20 1.20 1.20 4.86 191.43
Sarn-Eth 1.30N/A 1.10N/A 4.96 195.36 1.10 4.76 187.49
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A 1.55 1.25 1.30 1.25 4.91 193.40
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.45* 5.11 201.27
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.35 1.40 1.35 5.01 197.33
W O Feed 1.80 5.47 215.21
US Rep 1.69 5.35 210.72
Toledo El. -0.33 3.33 131.27 -0.33 3.33 131.25
MID SD CRN 0.92 1/2 4.58 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.95 4.61 1/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.3122 down 0.0037
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV18 HI 8.42 3/4 NOV18 HI 8.42 3/4
LOW 8.34 3/4 LOW 8.34 3/4
CLOSE8.39 1/4 Up 1 1/4 CLOSE 8.39 1/4 Up 1 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+JAN19
CK Low 2.40 10.79 396.562.60 10.99 403.91
CK High 2.50 10.89 400.232.65 11.04 405.74
CK Average 2.47 -0.1210.86 398.942.64 0.00 11.03 405.19
Essex Cty 2.50 10.89 400.232.65 11.04 405.74
Mdsx Low 2.50 10.89 400.232.64 11.03 405.37
Mdsx High 2.52 10.91 400.972.65 11.04 405.74
Mdsx Average 2.51 -0.0810.90 400.602.65 0.00 11.04 405.56
Hensall 2.50 10.89 400.232.65 11.04 405.74
Bruce 2.50 10.89 400.232.65 11.04 405.74
Putnam N/A 2.55 10.94 402.07
Burford 2.56 10.95 402.442.68 11.07 406.84
Port Perry 2.49 10.88 399.862.61 11.00 404.27
Norfolk 2.50 10.89 400.232.65 11.04 405.74
Palmerston 2.40 10.79 396.562.60 10.99 403.91
Varna N/A 2.65 11.04 405.74
Trenton N/A 2.65 11.04 405.74
Winchester N/A 2.70 11.09 407.58
North Gower N/A 2.70 11.09 407.58
Huron FOB 2.60 10.99 403.912.65 11.04 405.74
Kent FOB 2.55 10.94 402.072.65 11.04 405.74
Lambton FOB 2.50 10.89 400.232.70 11.09 407.58
Middlesex FOB2.69 2.72 2.86 2.85 11.08 407.212.72 11.11 408.31
PROCESSORS
Windsor 3.03 11.42 419.712.96 11.35 417.13
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 2.95 11.34 416.77
Prescott 2.09 10.48 385.172.88 11.27 414.19
Toledo El. -0.66 7.74 284.26-0.66 7.74 284.22
Exchange rate was 1.3122 down 0.0037
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC18 HI 5.24 1/2 JUL19 HI 5.55
LOW 5.12 1/2 LOW 5.45
CLOSE 5.13 3/4 Down 8 CLOSE 5.47 1/4 Down 6
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
DEC18 HI 5.82 1/4 SEP19 HI 6.14 1/4
LOW 5.71 LOW 6.10 1/4
CLOSE 5.71 3/4 Down 8 1/2 CLOSE 6.10 1/2 Down 4 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.14 1.34 1.14 0.60
CAD $/bu 6.28 6.48 6.28 6.32
CAD $/tonne 230.82 238.06 230.82 232.27
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.80 N/A N/A N/A 0.95 N/A
London 0.92 0.99 0.79 N/A 1.27 1.27 0.94 N/A
Hensall 0.90 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.95 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Bruce 0.85 1.15 0.80 0.40 1.15 1.30 0.95 0.65
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.99 N/A
Norwich 0.90 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.95 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.00 0.80 N/A N/A 1.20 0.95 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.90 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.95 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.80 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.80 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.15 0.95 0.55 N/A 1.10 1.05 N/A
Varna 1.00 1.20 0.80 N/A 1.15 1.30 0.95 N/A
Mitchell 0.90 1.05 0.80 N/A 1.15 1.25 0.95 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.10 0.90 0.50 N/A 1.25 1.20 0.45
W O Feed 1.53
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.54 N/A N/A N/A 1.85 N/A
Toledo El. 4.99US 6.54CA 5.32US 7.00CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.26 1.33 1.26 0.54
CAD $/bu 6.73 6.80 6.73 6.65
CAD $/tonne 247.46 249.88 247.46 244.20
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 488.33
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 215.00 - 220.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for September 5, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, September 5, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.65 ↑ 08 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.38 ↑ 01 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.22 ↓ 20 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.49 ↓ 02 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.80 ↓ 11 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.46 ↓ 07 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7598 ↓ 1.50 points
Corn:
It’s been two weeks since my last commentary. With the volatility of the markets coupled with the change in futures from September to December, I will start fresh with my market analysis.
We recently re-tested the lows of September 2017 on the weekly corn chart and it appears that there was good support there. We have since moved higher on our December contract, but I don’t trust double bottoms, and for that reason I believe we will see another re-test coming into the harvest period.
We have overhead resistance at the $3.80 level on the December futures while initial support is seen at the $3.50 level and more significant support at the $3.30 level on the December futures.
All indicators are neutral and the primary trend is still down. A close above $4.40 is currently needed to change direction to bullish in the long term.
Soybeans:
We will be switching over to the November contract for our analysis of soybeans. Like corn, we have a decent looking double bottom in the soybeans. This, however, is the short-term chart which is not the true trend. Looking at the weekly and monthly chart, we remain bearish and unless we close above the $9.25 level on the November futures, I feel we could challenge the lows of $8 heading into the harvest. We are currently in a neutral zone between $8 and $9 on November and I am keeping an eye on the price action going into the fall. The charts do not look constructive, and if I were a betting man, I think the bear flag formation that we see could cause a break in prices which could propel us towards the $7 price before Christmas. This of course is just my opinion which will change if we manage to close above the $9.25 level on our charts.
All indicators are negative with immediate overhead resistance at the $9 level, while initial support is seen at the $8.20 level, based on the December futures. Our $8.20 lows are very critical at this point and a retest of this area, although not expected, would not be a good sign technically. The primary trend remains down.
Wheat:
Wheat continues to be the leader as we got our anticipated correction back to the $5 level on the futures as expected. The weaknesses in the other grains are weighing on wheat, but unless we break down in soybeans and corn as described above, wheat could limit its sell-off to a simple re-test of this summer’s lows at the $4.50 level.
Trade issues continue to weigh heavily on these markets and if we get any nasty surprises in the coming weeks, I feel the very worst wheat could manage is a $4 futures price. Don’t be alarmed, this is just a worse-case scenario if we were to see crippling prices below $7 in the soybeans this fall. Remember, we have lost more than $2.50 per bushel on soybeans since April, so a retest of wheat’s lows when beans are at sub $7 is not a catastrophe.
Initial support is seen at the $4.90 level on December futures while overhead resistance is now back at $6.
Short and intermediate term indicators are negative while the primary trend is still mildly bullish.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, September 5, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $235.45/MT ($6.41/bu), HRW @ $242.70/MT ($6.61/bu),
HRS @ $236.90/MT ($6.45/bu), SRW @ $235.45/MT ($6.41/bu).
-----
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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