[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Oct 11 15:35:36 EDT 2018


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, October 11
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3023 up 0.0016
Chicago corn closed moderately higher.

      DEC18   HI 3.73                         DEC19    HI 4.03
             LOW 3.60  1/4                            LOW 3.94  1/2
            CLOSE3.69  1/4  Up 6 1/2                CLOSE 4.02  1/4  Up 5 1/2

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC18+MAR19+MAR19
CK Low       0.65                        4.34 170.96  0.80         4.82 189.85
CK High      0.85                        4.54 178.83  0.80         4.82 189.85
CK Avg       0.73                  -0.29 4.43 174.24  0.80 -0.30   4.82 189.85
Essex Cty    0.80                        4.49 176.86  0.80         4.82 189.85
Mdsx Low     0.65                        4.34 170.96  0.80         4.82 189.85
Mdsx High    0.65                        4.34 170.96  0.80         4.82 189.85
Mdsx Avg     0.65                  -0.36 4.34 170.96  0.80 -0.30   4.82 189.85
Hensall      0.63                        4.32 169.97  0.80         4.82 189.85
Bruce        0.60                        4.29 168.99  0.85         4.87 191.82
Putnam      N/A                                     N/A
Burford      0.85                        4.54 178.83  0.80         4.82 189.85
Port Perry   0.90                        4.59 180.80  0.85         4.87 191.82
Norfolk      0.80                        4.49 176.86  0.80         4.82 189.85
Palmerston   0.90                        4.59 180.80  0.80         4.82 189.85
Varna        0.65                        4.34 170.96  0.80         4.82 189.85
Trenton      0.90                        4.59 180.80  0.85         4.87 191.82
Winchester   1.30                        4.99 196.55  0.95         4.97 195.76
North Gower  1.25                        4.94 194.58  0.95         4.97 195.76
Huron FOB    0.90                        4.59 180.80  0.85         4.87 191.82
Kent FOB     0.90                        4.59 180.80  0.80         4.82 189.85
Lamb FOB     1.10                        4.79 188.67  0.80         4.82 189.85
Mdsx FOB     1.00N/A   N/A   N/A         4.69 184.74  0.90         4.92 193.79
FOB SW Que   1.79                        5.48 215.84N/A
Track        1.43                        5.12 201.47N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A     1.21  1.25                   1.00         5.02 197.73
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A     1.36  1.42                   1.22         5.24 206.39
Aylmer-Eth   1.15  1.15  1.15  1.20      4.84 190.64  1.00         5.02 197.73
Sarn-Eth     1.15  1.15  1.15N/A         4.84 190.64N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A    1.15  1.25N/A                      1.05         5.07 199.70
Pt.Colb-Ing  1.35  1.35N/A   N/A         5.04 198.51 N/A*
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.47  1.47                   1.10         5.12 201.66
W O Feed     1.55                        5.24 206.23

US Rep       1.54                        5.23 205.99
Toledo El.  -0.39                        3.30 129.99 -0.26         3.76 148.15


MID SD CRN   0.75                        4.44 1/4
HI SD CRN    0.85                        4.54 1/4
*Wet Bid


Exchange rate was 1.3023 up 0.0016
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.

       NOV18   HI 8.64                NOV19    HI 9.27  1/2
              LOW 8.47                        LOW 9.12  3/4
             CLOSE8.58  1/4  Up 6           CLOSE 9.25   Up 6 3/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+JAN1+JAN19
CK Low       2.60                     11.18 410.891.80      11.05 406.02
CK High      2.80                     11.38 418.241.95      11.20 411.53
CK Average   2.69                0.07 11.27 414.191.89 -0.6611.14 409.32
Essex Cty    2.60                     11.18 410.892.00      11.25 413.37
Mdsx Low     2.73                     11.31 415.661.88      11.13 408.96
Mdsx High    2.80                     11.38 418.241.90      11.15 409.69
Mdsx Average 2.77                0.13 11.35 416.951.89 -0.6611.14 409.32
Hensall      2.75                     11.33 416.401.88      11.13 408.77
Bruce        2.70                     11.28 414.561.90      11.15 409.69
Putnam        N/A                                  N/A
Burford      2.79                     11.37 417.871.94      11.19 411.16
Port Perry   2.67                     11.25 413.461.82      11.07 406.75
Norfolk      2.90                     11.48 421.911.95      11.20 411.53
Palmerston   2.75                     11.33 416.401.95      11.20 411.53
Varna        2.70                     11.28 414.561.85      11.10 407.86
Trenton      2.80                     11.38 418.241.95      11.20 411.53
Winchester   2.78                     11.36 417.501.96      11.21 411.90
North Gower  2.70                     11.28 414.561.95      11.20 411.53
Huron FOB    2.75                     11.33 416.401.95      11.20 411.53
Kent FOB     2.75                     11.33 416.401.95      11.20 411.53
Lambton FOB  2.75                     11.33 416.402.00      11.25 413.37
Middlesex FOB2.96 3.09 3.03 2.35      11.54 424.112.05      11.30 415.20

PROCESSORS
Windsor      2.80                     11.38 418.24 N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton     3.00                     11.58 425.582.15      11.40 418.88
Prescott     3.05                     11.63 427.422.50      11.75 431.74

Toledo El.   -0.72                     7.87 289.03-0.39      8.86 325.59


Exchange rate was 1.3023 up 0.0016
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC18      HI         5.21              JUL19   HI      5.57  3/4
           LOW    5.06  1/2                     LOW        5.45
           CLOSE  5.08   Down 2 1/2             CLOSE   5.48   Down  3/4

Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC18      HI     5.98  1/2             SEP19   HI      6.21  3/4
           LOW    5.88  1/4                     LOW     6.15  1/4
           CLOSE  5.89  1/2  Down 2 1/4         CLOSE   6.16   Down 4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.08          1.28            1.08          0.61
CAD $/bu              6.16          6.36            6.16          6.51
CAD $/tonne         226.34        233.52          226.34        239.02


Direct MarkHarvest 2018                 Harvest 2019
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.75    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.90    N/A
London      0.95    1.21   0.82    N/A    1.19    1.32   1.00    N/A
Hensall     0.90    N/A    0.80    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.95    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.90    N/A
Bruce       0.85    1.20   0.75   0.60    1.00    1.30   0.90   0.65
Essex        N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.96    N/A
Norwich     0.90    N/A    0.80    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.95    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    1.00   0.80    N/A    N/A     1.20   0.95    N/A
Kent Bridge 0.90    N/A    0.80    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.95    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    0.80    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.95    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.80    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.95    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.15   0.95    N/A    N/A     1.10   1.05    N/A
Varna       1.00    1.20   0.80    N/A    1.05    1.30   0.95    N/A
Mitchell    0.90    1.05   0.80    N/A    1.15    1.25   0.95    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.15    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.15   0.90   0.40    N/A     1.22   1.12   0.40
W O Feed                   1.46


PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.54    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.76    N/A

Toledo El. 5.00US         6.51CA         5.33US         6.91CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.17          1.24            1.17          0.47
CAD $/bu              6.65          6.72            6.65          6.63
CAD $/tonne         244.42        246.80          244.42        243.47

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             512.36
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm       205.00

--
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 10, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario


Wednesday, October 10, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.59 ↓ 06 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.51 ↓ 11 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.10 ↓ 05 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.92 ↑ 02 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.17 ↓ 02 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.84        ↑ 12 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7673 ↑ 1.15 points

Corn:
Our charts are looking more constructive as the long-term charts have been neutralized since March of this year. This means that the interim trend has gone from bearish to a neutral reading. This bearish trend is at least four years old. This does not mean we are in a bull market in the long-term trend, but it does indicate that the possibility of starting a new bullish trend has been improved and the chance of the bottom being in place has also increased.
We received a red buy signal on the daily chart back on October 1. This is a positive short-term signal.
Initial support is still seen at the $3.40 level on December.  Indicators are neutral, but the primary trend is still down. We would need a close above the $4.40 level on the lead month contract to get excited about a major trend reversal.

Soybeans:
Soybeans are on pace to continue pushing higher towards the $9 level on the November futures.  A close below the $8 level on November futures would signal more downside, but for now we have re-tested the support levels and we are now looking at good support in that area.  We also received a short-term red buy signal of the November soybean contract on October 2 and it is still intact. This is a short-term signal only.  I feel we need to close above the $9.20 level before I’m convinced that our bearish flag formation is negated.
Our weekly and primary indicators are still negative with a green light on the short-term indicators. Major overhead resistance is now at the $9.20 level, while initial support is seen at the $8 level based on the November futures.  The primary trend remains down.

Wheat:
The drop in the stock market seen on October 10 could possibly rattle most futures markets as margin calls filter through most markets and cause them to sell off, especially if the rout continues into this weekend.
The wheat charts look quite constructive with a large double bottom near the $5 level on the December futures.  We have red buy signals still on the weekly charts and the daily charts. Our next challenge on the December futures contract is an attempt to reach the $5.50 price level and possibly higher before the December contract expires.
The HRS wheat looks even more bullish than the SRW. Charts suggest a price of $6-$6.20 in the coming weeks.
Good support is still seen at the $4.80 - $5 area on December futures while overhead resistance is now back at $5.50.
All indicators are positive, and the primary trend is still mildly bullish.  Wheat is still the leading grain of the three in the race for a major trend reversal.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, October 10, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $226.32/MT ($6.16/bu),  HRW @ $233.39/MT ($6.35/bu),
 HRS @ $235.28/MT ($6.40/bu),   SRW @ $226.32/MT ($6.16/bu).

---

Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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