[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Oct 4 15:17:00 EDT 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, October 4
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2909 up 0.0089
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
DEC18 HI 3.68 1/2 DEC19 HI 4.01 1/4
LOW 3.64 3/4 LOW 3.98 1/2
CLOSE3.67 1/2 Up 2 3/4 CLOSE 4.00 1/4 Up 1 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC18+MAR19+MAR19
CK Low 0.80 4.48 176.17 0.80 4.80 189.07
CK High 0.90 4.58 180.11 0.80 4.80 189.07
CK Avg 0.83 -0.19 4.50 177.16 0.80 -0.27 4.80 189.07
Essex Cty 0.85 4.53 178.14 0.80 4.80 189.07
Mdsx Low 0.80 4.48 176.17 0.80 4.80 189.07
Mdsx High 0.85 4.53 178.14 0.85 4.85 191.03
Mdsx Avg 0.83 -0.19 4.50 177.16 0.83 -0.25 4.83 190.05
Hensall 0.85 4.53 178.14 0.85 4.85 191.03
Bruce 0.85 4.53 178.14 0.85 4.85 191.03
Putnam 0.90 4.58 180.11 0.85 4.85 191.03
Burford 0.85 4.53 178.14 0.80 4.80 189.07
Port Perry 0.90 4.58 180.11 0.85 4.85 191.03
Norfolk 0.85 4.53 178.14 0.80 4.80 189.07
Palmerston 0.90 4.58 180.11 0.80 4.80 189.07
Varna 0.85 4.53 178.14 0.85 4.85 191.03
Trenton 0.90 4.58 180.11 0.85 4.85 191.03
Winchester 1.30 4.98 195.86N/A
North Gower 1.20 4.88 191.92 0.90 4.90 193.00
Huron FOB 0.90 4.58 180.11 0.85 4.85 191.03
Kent FOB 0.92 4.60 180.90 0.80 4.80 189.07
Lamb FOB 1.00 4.68 184.05 0.80 4.80 189.07
Mdsx FOB 1.00N/A N/A N/A 4.68 184.05 0.90 4.90 193.00
FOB SW Que 1.85 5.53 217.51N/A
Track 1.20 4.88 191.92N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A 1.16 1.21 0.96 4.96 195.36
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A 1.32 1.38 1.17 5.17 203.63
Aylmer-Eth 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.20 4.83 189.95 1.00 5.00 196.94
Sarn-Eth 1.15 1.15 1.15N/A 4.83 189.95N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing 1.20N/A 1.25N/A 4.88 191.92N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.35N/A N/A N/A 5.03 197.83 N/A*
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.45N/A N/A
W O Feed 1.39 5.07 199.40
US Rep 1.47 5.15 202.55
Toledo El. -0.45 3.22 126.89 -0.26 3.75 147.44
MID SD CRN 0.85 4.52 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.90 4.57 1/2
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.2909 up 0.0089
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower to steady.
NOV18 HI 8.68 1/2 NOV19 HI 9.34 1/2
LOW 8.58 1/2 LOW 9.26
CLOSE8.59 1/4 Down 2 1/4 CLOSE 9.27 Down 2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN19
CK Low 2.35 10.94 402.071.65 10.92 401.24
CK High 2.55 11.14 409.421.75 11.02 404.92
CK Average 2.47 -0.0211.07 406.601.72 -0.7310.99 403.63
Essex Cty 2.40 10.99 403.911.80 11.07 406.75
Mdsx Low 2.55 11.14 409.421.70 10.97 403.08
Mdsx High 2.57 11.16 410.151.77 11.04 405.65
Mdsx Average 2.56 0.05 11.15 409.781.74 -0.7211.01 404.36
Hensall 2.58 11.17 410.341.73 11.00 404.00
Bruce 2.60 11.19 411.251.75 11.02 404.92
Putnam 2.55 11.14 409.421.85 11.12 408.59
Burford 2.63 11.22 412.361.83 11.10 407.86
Port Perry 2.54 11.13 409.051.74 11.01 404.55
Norfolk 2.65 11.24 413.091.75 11.02 404.92
Palmerston 2.45 11.04 405.741.70 10.97 403.08
Varna 2.60 11.19 411.251.75 11.02 404.92
Trenton 2.60 11.19 411.251.85 11.12 408.59
Winchester 2.59 11.18 410.891.87 11.14 409.32
North Gower 2.55 11.14 409.421.80 11.07 406.75
Huron FOB 2.60 11.19 411.251.85 11.12 408.59
Kent FOB 2.55 11.14 409.421.75 11.02 404.92
Lambton FOB 2.65 11.24 413.091.95 11.22 412.26
Middlesex FOB2.80 2.92 2.77 2.25 11.39 418.601.94 11.21 411.90
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.71 11.30 415.30 N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.80 11.39 418.602.00 11.27 414.10
Prescott 2.72 11.31 415.662.22 11.49 422.19
Toledo El. -0.71 7.88 289.63-0.39 8.88 326.43
Exchange rate was 1.2909 up 0.0089
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC18 HI 5.20 3/4 JUL19 HI 5.56
LOW 5.13 3/4 LOW 5.50 1/2
CLOSE 5.18 Up 2 3/4 CLOSE 5.53 3/4 Up 1 1/2
Minni wheat closed steady to slightly higher.
DEC18 HI 5.95 SEP19 HI 6.23
LOW 5.86 1/4 LOW 6.20
CLOSE 5.89 3/4 Unchanged CLOSE 6.20 1/2 Up 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.06 1.25 1.06 0.55
CAD $/bu 6.24 6.43 6.24 6.45
CAD $/tonne 229.10 236.21 229.10 237.04
Direct MarkHarvest 2018 Harvest 2019
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
London 0.88 1.14 0.75 N/A 1.09 1.22 0.90 N/A
Hensall 0.85 N/A 0.75 N/A 1.10 N/A 0.90 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Bruce 0.75 1.20 0.70 0.55 0.90 1.30 0.85 0.65
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.89 N/A
Norwich 0.85 N/A 0.75 N/A 1.10 N/A 0.90 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.00 0.75 N/A N/A 1.20 0.90 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.85 N/A 0.75 N/A 1.10 N/A 0.90 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.15 0.95 0.55 N/A 1.10 1.05 N/A
Varna 0.90 1.20 0.70 N/A 0.95 1.30 0.85 N/A
Mitchell 0.85 1.00 0.75 N/A 1.10 1.20 0.90 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.05 0.80 0.40 N/A 1.08 1.03 0.30
W O Feed 1.40
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.51 N/A N/A N/A 1.72 N/A
Toledo El. 5.10US 6.58CA 5.39US 6.93CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.14 1.20 1.14 0.43
CAD $/bu 6.68 6.74 6.68 6.63
CAD $/tonne 245.31 247.68 245.31 243.78
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 500.68
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 205.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 3, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, October 3, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.65 ↑ 02 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.61 ↑ 11 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.15 ↓ 02 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.90 ↑ 12 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.19 ↓ 02 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.75 ↑ 17 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7793 ↑ 0.85 points
Corn:
Charts are looking more constructive and there is a chance we may have already seen the bottom in prices.
We received a red buy signal on the daily chart. This is a positive short term signal.
We have moved convincingly above the four-year-old downtrend line, which is located near the $3.50 - $3.70 level on the December futures contract.
Initial support is seen at the $3.40 level on December. Indicators are neutral, but the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
Our $8 area on the November contract has been tested once again and is looking solid at this point. A close below the $8 level on November futures would signal more downside, but for now we have re-tested the support levels and we are now looking at good support in that area. We are now experiencing the ascent in prices that we mentioned in our last commentary. We are now headed back to re-test the $9 overhead resistance level. We also received a short-term red buy signal of the November bean contract this week which is another positive. I feel we need to close above the $9.20 level before I’m convinced that our bearish flag formation is negated.
Our weekly and primary indicators are still negative with a green light on the short term indicators. Major overhead resistance is now at the $9.20 level, while initial support is seen at the $8 level based on the November futures. The primary trend remains down.
Wheat:
Wheat performed well again this week as we held support at the $5 level once again. The charts suggest a move to the $5.50 level in the near term and possible a re-test of the $5.80 - $6 level later this fall.
The charts look quite constructive with a large double bottom near the $5 level on the December futures. We have red buy signals still on the weekly charts and the daily charts. Our next challenge on the December futures contract is an attempt to reach the $5.50 price level and possibly higher before the December contract expires.
Good support is still seen at the $4.80 - $5 area on December futures while overhead resistance is now back at $5.50.
All indicators are positive, and the primary trend is still mildly bullish. Wheat is still the leading grain of the three in the race for a major trend reversal.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, October 3, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $226.32/MT ($6.16/bu), HRW @ $233.39/MT ($6.35/bu),
HRS @ $235.28/MT ($6.40/bu), SRW @ $226.32/MT ($6.16/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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