[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed May 23 15:18:21 EDT 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, May 23
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2841 up 0.0042
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
JUL18 HI 4.09 DEC18 HI 4.26 3/4
LOW 4.03 LOW 4.21 3/4
CLOSE4.08 1/2 Up 3 3/4 CLOSE 4.26 1/2 Up 3 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL18+SEP18+SEP18
CK Low 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.75 5.02 197.43
CK High 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.80 5.07 199.40
CK Avg 0.85 -0.24 4.94 194.28 0.76 -0.35 5.02 197.76
Essex Cty 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.75 5.02 197.43
Mdsx Low 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.75 5.02 197.43
Mdsx High 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.75 5.02 197.43
Mdsx Avg 0.85 -0.24 4.94 194.28 0.75 -0.36 5.02 197.43
Hensall 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.75 5.02 197.43
Bruce 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.75 5.02 197.43
Putnam 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.75 5.02 197.43
Burford 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.80 5.07 199.40
Port Perry 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.80 5.07 199.40
Norfolk 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.75 5.02 197.43
Palmerston 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.75 5.02 197.43
Varna 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.75 5.02 197.43
Trenton 0.85 4.94 194.28 0.90 5.17 203.34
Winchester 1.04 5.13 201.76 1.10 5.37 211.21
North Gower 0.94 5.03 197.83 1.00 5.27 207.27
Huron FOB 1.05 5.14 202.16 0.85 5.12 201.37
Kent FOB 1.05 5.14 202.16 0.80 5.07 199.40
Lamb FOB 1.00 5.09 200.19 0.80 5.07 199.40
Mdsx FOB 0.90 0.90N/A N/A 4.99 196.25 0.80 5.07 199.40
FOB SW Que 1.38 5.47 215.15N/A
Track 1.30 5.39 212.00N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.19 0.90 5.17 203.34
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.00 5.27 207.27
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.15 1.20 1.25 N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A 1.25N/A 1.30 1.00 5.27 207.27
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.10 5.37 211.21
W O Feed 1.44 5.52 217.35
US Rep 1.52 5.61 220.66
Toledo El. -0.06 4.02 158.29 -0.26 4.01 157.80
MID SD CRN 0.77 1/2 5.04
HI SD CRN 0.80 5.06 1/2
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.2841 up 0.0042
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
JUL18 HI 10.39 3/4 NOV18 HI 10.49
LOW 10.27 3/4 LOW 10.36 1/4
CLOSE10.39 1/4 Up 8 3/4 CLOSE 10.48 3/4 Up 9 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+JUL1+SEP18
CK Low 2.35 12.74 468.212.40 12.89 473.53
CK High 2.47 12.86 472.622.45 12.94 475.37
CK Average 2.42 -0.4112.81 470.782.44 -0.4212.93 475.07
Essex Cty 2.35 12.74 468.212.35 12.84 471.70
Mdsx Low 2.45 12.84 471.882.45 12.94 475.37
Mdsx High 2.47 12.86 472.622.50 12.99 477.21
Mdsx Average 2.46 -0.3812.85 472.252.48 -0.3912.96 476.29
Hensall 2.43 12.82 470.962.48 12.96 476.29
Bruce 2.45 12.84 471.882.45 12.94 475.37
Putnam 2.45 12.84 471.882.50 12.99 477.21
Burford 2.54 12.93 475.192.52 13.01 477.94
Port Perry 2.44 12.83 471.512.42 12.91 474.27
Norfolk 2.40 12.79 470.042.45 12.94 475.37
Palmerston 2.40 12.79 470.042.50 12.99 477.21
Varna 2.40 12.79 470.042.45 12.94 475.37
Trenton 2.45 12.84 471.882.45 12.94 475.37
Winchester 2.25 12.64 464.532.40 12.89 473.53
North Gower 2.28 12.67 465.632.32 12.81 470.60
Huron FOB 2.50 12.89 473.722.55 13.04 479.05
Kent FOB 2.55 12.94 475.562.45 12.94 475.37
Lambton FOB 2.60 12.99 477.392.60 13.09 480.88
Middlesex FOB2.64 2.67 2.67 N/A 13.03 478.862.56 13.05 479.41
PROCESSORS
Windsor 2.89 13.28 488.052.72 13.21 485.29
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 2.80 13.29 488.23
Prescott 2.40 12.79 470.042.93 13.42 493.01
Toledo El. -0.26 10.14 372.42-0.32 10.17 373.55
Exchange rate was 1.2841 up 0.0042
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
JUL18 HI 5.31 3/4 JUL18 HI 5.31 3/4
LOW 5.17 1/4 LOW 5.17 1/4
CLOSE 5.31 Up 9 1/2 CLOSE 5.31 Up 9 1/2
Minni wheat closed moderately higher.
JUL18 HI 6.45 3/4 SEP18 HI 6.49 3/4
LOW 6.31 1/4 LOW 6.37
CLOSE 6.42 Up 9 CLOSE 6.46 3/4 Up 8
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.41 1.34 1.15 0.41
CAD $/bu 6.72 6.65 6.46 6.83
CAD $/tonne 246.77 244.41 237.33 251.01
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.80 N/A N/A N/A 0.95 N/A
London 1.17 1.36 0.91 N/A 1.22 1.22 1.02 N/A
Hensall 1.05 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.10 N/A 0.95 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Bruce 1.05 1.05 0.80 N/A 1.10 1.15 0.95 0.50
Essex N/A N/A 0.82 N/A N/A N/A 1.03 N/A
Norwich 1.05 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.10 N/A 0.95 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A 0.80 N/A N/A 1.00 1.00 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.05 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.10 N/A 0.95 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A 1.05 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.00 0.90 0.35 N/A 1.10 1.00 0.55
Varna 1.15 1.05 0.85 N/A 1.10 1.15 0.95 N/A
Mitchell 1.05 1.05 0.80 N/A 1.10 1.15 0.95 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.96 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.09 0.90 0.16 N/A 1.39 1.32 0.33
W O Feed 1.53
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.70 N/A N/A N/A 1.70 N/A
Toledo El. 5.41US 6.95CA 5.41US 6.95CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.38 1.32 1.25 0.42
CAD $/bu 6.69 6.63 6.56 6.89
CAD $/tonne 245.82 243.46 241.10 253.25
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 575.09
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 260.00 - 265.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for May 23, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, May 23, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 4.08 ↑ 08 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 10.39 ↑ 39 cents
Wheat CBOT July 5.32 ↑ 37 cents
Wheat Minn. July 6.43 ↑ 31 cents
Wheat Kansas July 5.52 ↑ 37 cents
Chicago Oats July 2.52 ↑ 11 cents
Canadian $ June .7789 ↓ 0.15 points
Corn:
Corn prices continue to track higher in the bullish scenario of the intermediate trend. However, this bullish outlook may soon hit heavy resistance as we need a definitive close above the $4.40 - $4.50 level based on the July futures before I will call this a true bull market.
I received a red buy signal on my monthly chart while I was away which confirms the bullish tone of the intermediate trend up to the $4.50 level on the July contract. This should be challenged in the coming weeks.
Both our short term and intermediate trend is still bullish while the primary trend or long-term trend is still down. A definitive close above $4.50 will confirm the primary trend moving from neutral to bullish mode. This is the first time in six years we have seen a bull market in corn.
Current overhead resistance is seen at the $4.10 - $4.15 level on July while support is seen at the $3.90 - $4 level.
Soybeans:
Soybeans continue to slosh between the $10 level and the all-important $10.80 level on the July futures contract as they have done since the first day of May. The markets are coiling and I am expecting we will see a break to the upside to challenge the $10.80 level on the July futures in the coming weeks.
The primary down-trend line is still at the $10.80 level. Short-term indicators are neutral but the intermediate trend, as indicated on the weekly chart, is bullish as we await the challenge of the $10.80 level before confirming a trend reversal on our final holdout, the primary trend. Until we have a convincing close above that level, the primary trend remains down.
Wheat:
Wheat behaved as expected on May 15 as it pulled back to the support area of $4.90 and found solid support. The volatility is indicative of an excited market. The daily chart shows larger swings running stops on both sides of the daily range.
Again, this is a good sign as it indicates uncertainty in the price action and direction.
>From this level we are now ready for our next target of $5.75 area based on the July futures. If this target coincides with the last of June or early part of July, I would expect that we will either see a significant pullback in prices going into the harvest for the remainder of the summer months, or a complete breakout in prices and the confirmation of a full blown bull market. Either way, $5.75 futures prices are better than $4.
Solid support is seen at the $4.80 - $5 on the July contract and our resistance is the May 3 high at the $5.40 level. Once we clear that hurdle, we are set to challenge our $5.75 target.
Indicators are positive and the main primary trend is bullish.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, May 23, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $246.15/MT ($6.70/bu), HRW @ $243.78/MT ($6.63/bu),
HRS @ $254.18/MT ($6.92/bu), SRW @ $241.42/MT ($6.57/bu).
----
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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