[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jan 11 15:22:08 EST 2018


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, January 11
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2517 down 0.0046
Chicago corn closed slightly lower to steady.

      MAR18   HI 3.50  1/2                    DEC18    HI 3.83  3/4
             LOW 3.48                                 LOW 3.82
            CLOSE3.48  3/4  Down  1/4               CLOSE 3.82  3/4  Unchanged

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +MAR18+MAY18+MAY18
CK Low       0.55                        4.04 158.95  0.55         4.38 172.33
CK High      0.60                        4.09 160.92  0.65         4.48 176.27
CK Avg       0.56                  -0.26 4.05 159.28  0.58 -0.30   4.41 173.65
Essex Cty    0.55                        4.04 158.95  0.65         4.48 176.27
Mdsx Low     0.55                        4.04 158.95  0.55         4.38 172.33
Mdsx High    0.55                        4.04 158.95  0.55         4.38 172.33
Mdsx Avg     0.55                  -0.26 4.04 158.95  0.55 -0.33   4.38 172.33
Hensall      0.58                        4.06 159.93  0.57         4.39 172.93
Bruce        0.55                        4.04 158.95  0.55         4.38 172.33
Putnam       0.60                        4.09 160.92  0.60         4.43 174.30
Burford      0.60                        4.09 160.92  0.60         4.43 174.30
Port Perry   0.60                        4.09 160.92  0.60         4.43 174.30
Norfolk      0.55                        4.04 158.95  0.55         4.38 172.33
Palmerston   0.60                        4.09 160.92  0.65         4.48 176.27
Varna        0.60                        4.09 160.92  0.55         4.38 172.33
Trenton      0.65                        4.14 162.89  0.80         4.63 182.18
Winchester   0.91                        4.40 173.12  0.85         4.68 184.15
North Gower  0.92                        4.41 173.52  0.82         4.65 182.96
Huron FOB    0.82                        4.31 169.58  0.68         4.51 177.45
Kent FOB     0.75                        4.24 166.82  0.65         4.48 176.27
Lamb FOB     0.75                        4.24 166.82  0.65         4.48 176.27
Mdsx FOB     0.60  0.65  0.60N/A         4.09 160.92  0.60         4.43 174.30
FOB SW Que   1.48                        4.97 195.56N/A
Track        1.08                        4.56 179.62N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth     0.90  0.95  0.92  0.97      4.39 172.73  0.80         4.63 182.18
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth   0.85  0.85  0.90  0.85      4.34 170.76  N/A
Sarn-Eth     0.90  0.90  0.90N/A         4.39 172.73N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A     1.05                   0.90         4.73 186.11
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A    1.35  1.40N/A                      1.05         4.88 192.02
W O Feed     1.16                        4.65 182.96

US Rep       1.19                        4.68 184.15
Toledo El.  -0.04                        3.45 135.82 -0.25         3.58 140.84


MID SD CRN   0.57   1/2                  4.06 1/4
HI SD CRN    0.60                        4.08 3/4
*Wet Bid


Exchange rate was 1.2517 down 0.0046
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.

       MAR18   HI 9.57  1/2           NOV18    HI 9.75  3/4
              LOW 9.49                        LOW 9.70
             CLOSE9.50   Down 5             CLOSE 9.71  1/2  Down 2

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +MAR1+MAR1+MAY18
CK Low       1.70                     11.20 411.531.65      11.37 417.59
CK High      1.80                     11.30 415.201.80      11.52 423.10
CK Average   1.74                -0.5211.24 412.821.72 -0.5711.44 420.29
Essex Cty    1.70                     11.20 411.531.70      11.42 419.43
Mdsx Low     1.70                     11.20 411.531.69      11.41 419.06
Mdsx High    1.71                     11.21 411.901.80      11.52 423.10
Mdsx Average 1.71                -0.5511.21 411.711.75 -0.5511.46 421.08
Hensall      1.68                     11.18 410.611.80      11.52 423.10
Bruce        1.65                     11.15 409.691.75      11.47 421.27
Putnam       1.65                     11.15 409.691.75      11.47 421.27
Burford      1.78                     11.28 414.471.76      11.48 421.63
Port Perry   1.71                     11.21 411.901.69      11.41 419.06
Norfolk      1.70                     11.20 411.531.80      11.52 423.10
Palmerston   1.75                     11.25 413.371.70      11.42 419.43
Varna        1.65                     11.15 409.691.70      11.42 419.43
Trenton      1.70                     11.20 411.531.70      11.42 419.43
Winchester   1.74                     11.24 413.001.72      11.44 420.16
North Gower  1.63                     11.13 408.961.63      11.35 416.86
Huron FOB    1.75                     11.25 413.371.90      11.62 426.78
Kent FOB     1.85                     11.35 417.041.75      11.47 421.27
Lambton FOB  1.85                     11.35 417.041.80      11.52 423.10
Middlesex FOB1.88 1.96 1.96 1.90      11.38 418.141.83      11.55 424.21


TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                 2.15      11.87 435.96
Prescott     1.82                     11.32 415.942.04      11.76 431.92

Toledo El.   -0.24                     9.26 340.33-0.38      9.34 343.18


Exchange rate was 1.2517 down 0.0046
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
MAR18      HI     4.34  1/2             JUL18   HI      4.60  3/4
           LOW    4.28  1/2                     LOW     4.55  3/4
           CLOSE  4.33  1/4  Down 1             CLOSE   4.58  3/4  Down 1 3/4

Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
MAR18      HI     6.33  1/2             SEP18   HI      6.31  1/4
           LOW    6.28  1/2                     LOW     6.29  1/4
           CLOSE  6.29   Down 5                 CLOSE   6.29  1/2  Down 1 3/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.78          0.90            0.78          0.27
CAD $/bu              5.11          5.24            5.11          6.56
CAD $/tonne         187.77        192.37          187.77        241.00


Direct MarkHarvest 2017                 Harvest 2018
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.75    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.70    N/A
London      0.90    1.22   0.84    N/A    1.02    0.77   0.77    N/A
Hensall     0.85    N/A    0.75    N/A    0.95    N/A    0.70    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.85    N/A
Bruce       0.85    0.75   0.75   0.10    0.95    0.70   0.70   0.30
Essex        N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A
Norwich     0.85    N/A    0.75    N/A    0.95    N/A    0.70    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    N/A    0.80    N/A    N/A     0.75   0.70    N/A
Kent Bridge 0.85    N/A    0.75    N/A    0.95    N/A    0.70    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.70    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.70    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    0.80   0.80   0.25    N/A     0.75   0.80   0.35
Varna       1.10    0.85   0.80    N/A    0.90    0.70   0.70    N/A
Mitchell    0.85    0.75   0.75    N/A    0.95    0.70   0.70    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.20    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    0.75   0.70   0.18    N/A     0.83   0.78   0.05
W O Feed                   1.40


PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.22    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.15    N/A

Toledo El. 4.23US         5.30CA         4.44US         5.55CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.77          0.77            0.71          0.20
CAD $/bu              5.36          5.36            5.30          6.49
CAD $/tonne         196.95        196.95          194.65        238.63

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             443.25
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      205.00 - 215.00


----

Ontario Grain Market Commentary for January 10, 2018

By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario


Wednesday, January 10, 2017 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.49 ↓ 03 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 9.55 ↓ 15 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 4.34 ↓ 02 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 6.34 ↑ 14 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 4.40 ↑ 03 cents
Chicago Oats Mar 2.45 ↓ 06 cents
Canadian $ Mar .7984 ↑ 0.01 points

Corn:
Corn continues to track sideways as we are finding good support on at the $3.40 - $3.45 level on the March contract. Our weekly charts show a positive tone with a red buy signal from the middle of December. I am expecting the $3.40 level to be supportive as we move into the gap on the weekly chart. If however, we breach the $3.40 on a close we could see further downside to test a key support level at the $3.30 level on the weekly chart.
Indicators are still oversold and a move above the $3.50 level is necessary to start a rally with momentum heading into the spring.
Support is still seen at the $3.40 level on the March contract, while overhead resistance is seen at $3.50.
Short term indicators are still negative, with the continuation chart looking more constructive for a spring rally.
The primary trend is still down.

Soybeans:
We have seen this scenario play out many times before as we watch the price swings from $9 support to the $10.25 resistance. There is no reason to think we will not test the $9 support level on the March contract yet again. However, my indicators are suggesting that this winding up of pressure will eventually cause an elastic effect on prices once we breach the $10.25 level on the next go round. There is a chance we may not get all the way back to $9 or, we may see a complete blow-off in prices and head towards the $8.50 level before an obvious reversal candle indicates that we have finally bottomed. I expect it will be a memorable moment as many traders get caught on the wrong side of the market. The funds will scramble to cover their multi-year shorts and possibly reverse their positions.
Support is seen on the March charts at the $9.50 level. A failure to hold this area could see a further decline towards the $9 - $9.20 level to retest that support area.
Short term indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.

Wheat:
Looking constructive is the key word to describe the wheat charts. While the daily March contract shows a red buy signal on January 3, the daily continuation chart has a well-defined gap with a price support at the $4 level. December 15 shows a perfect marubozu or long white candle and the indicators are in oversold territory. This looks like a recipe for a bottom formation.
This is not to say that this is the bottom, but rather that we need to be aware that we are possibly close to the end of a multi-year bear market.
We will be watching the other markets for similar indicators.
Good support is seen around the $4 to $4.10 mark on the March futures chart. Overhead resistance is still viewed at $4.35.
Indicators are showing oversold conditions. Short term indicators are bullish, but the primary trend is still down.

Cash Grain  prices as of the close, January 10, are as follows:
SWW @ $188.96/MT ($5.14/bu), HRW @ $193.58/MT ($5.27/bu),
 HRS @ $244.25/MT ($6.65/bu), SRW @ $188.96/MT ($5.14/bu).

---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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