[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Feb 8 15:11:29 EST 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, February 8
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2583 up 0.0027
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
MAR18 HI 3.67 3/4 DEC18 HI 3.96 3/4
LOW 3.64 1/2 LOW 3.94
CLOSE3.65 3/4 Up 1/2 CLOSE 3.95 Up 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY18+MAY18+JUL18
CK Low 0.60 4.26 167.61 0.65 4.60 181.09
CK High 0.65 4.31 169.58 0.70 4.65 183.06
CK Avg 0.64 -0.24 4.30 169.25 0.66 -0.28 4.61 181.42
Essex Cty 0.60 4.26 167.61 0.65 4.60 181.09
Mdsx Low 0.65 4.31 169.58 0.65 4.60 181.09
Mdsx High 0.65 4.31 169.58 0.65 4.60 181.09
Mdsx Avg 0.65 -0.23 4.31 169.58 0.65 -0.28 4.60 181.09
Hensall 0.65 4.31 169.58 0.63 4.58 180.11
Bruce 0.65 4.31 169.58 0.65 4.60 181.09
Putnam 0.65 4.31 169.58 0.65 4.60 181.09
Burford 0.70 4.36 171.55 0.65 4.60 181.09
Port Perry 0.65 4.31 169.58 0.65 4.60 181.09
Norfolk 0.70 4.36 171.55 0.65 4.60 181.09
Palmerston 0.60 4.26 167.61 0.65 4.60 181.09
Varna 0.65 4.31 169.58 0.60 4.55 179.13
Trenton 0.70 4.36 171.55 0.75 4.70 185.03
Winchester 0.95 4.61 181.39 0.95 4.90 192.90
North Gower 0.92 4.58 180.21 0.92 4.87 191.72
Huron FOB 0.75 4.41 173.52 0.60 4.55 179.13
Kent FOB 0.92 4.58 180.21 0.70 4.65 183.06
Lamb FOB 0.85 4.51 177.45 0.65 4.60 181.09
Mdsx FOB 0.65N/A N/A N/A 4.31 169.58 0.60 4.55 179.13
FOB SW Que 1.35 5.01 197.14 1.07 5.02 197.63
Track 1.08 4.73 186.31N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth 1.04 1.03 1.09 1.07 4.70 184.93 0.85 4.80 188.97
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.95 0.95 0.85 1.00 4.61 181.39 N/A
Sarn-Eth 0.95 0.95N/A N/A 4.61 181.39N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.10 0.95 4.90 192.90
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 4.95 194.87
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.10 5.05 198.81
W O Feed 1.20 4.86 191.15
US Rep 1.28 4.94 194.38
Toledo El. -0.04 3.62 142.50 -0.25 3.70 145.62
MID SD CRN 0.62 1/2 4.28 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.65 4.30 3/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.2583 up 0.0027
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
MAR18 HI 9.96 NOV18 HI 10.10
LOW 9.77 3/4 LOW 9.96
CLOSE9.87 3/4 Up 4 3/4 CLOSE 10.04 1/2 Up 4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAY1+MAY18
CK Low 1.80 11.68 429.071.79 11.84 434.86
CK High 1.90 11.78 432.751.85 11.90 437.07
CK Average 1.83 -0.5711.71 430.301.84 -0.5811.89 436.70
Essex Cty 1.80 11.68 429.071.85 11.90 437.07
Mdsx Low 1.80 11.68 429.071.79 11.84 434.86
Mdsx High 1.85 11.73 430.911.90 11.95 438.90
Mdsx Average 1.83 -0.5811.70 429.991.85 -0.5711.89 436.88
Hensall 1.83 11.70 429.991.88 11.92 437.99
Bruce 1.85 11.73 430.911.90 11.95 438.90
Putnam 1.85 11.73 430.911.90 11.95 438.90
Burford 1.87 11.75 431.651.86 11.91 437.43
Port Perry 1.80 11.68 429.071.79 11.84 434.86
Norfolk 1.80 11.68 429.071.90 11.95 438.90
Palmerston 1.80 11.68 429.071.85 11.90 437.07
Varna 1.80 11.68 429.071.85 11.90 437.07
Trenton 1.70 11.58 425.401.90 11.95 438.90
Winchester 1.83 11.71 430.181.86 11.91 437.43
North Gower 1.78 11.66 428.341.78 11.83 434.49
Huron FOB 1.90 11.78 432.751.90 11.95 438.90
Kent FOB 2.00 11.88 436.421.85 11.90 437.07
Lambton FOB 2.05 11.93 438.261.90 11.95 438.90
Middlesex FOB1.95 2.01 2.00 2.00 11.83 434.591.90 11.95 438.90
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 2.30 12.35 453.60
Prescott 1.96 11.84 434.952.17 12.22 448.82
Toledo El. -0.24 9.64 354.15-0.38 9.67 355.26
Exchange rate was 1.2583 up 0.0027
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
MAR18 HI 4.64 1/2 JUL18 HI 4.90
LOW 4.51 1/4 LOW 4.78
CLOSE 4.56 1/4 Down 4 1/4 CLOSE 4.82 1/2 Down 3 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
MAR18 HI 6.15 3/4 SEP18 HI 6.39
LOW 6.10 1/4 LOW 6.35 1/2
CLOSE 6.13 Up 3/4 CLOSE 6.37 3/4 Up 1
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.12 1.05 0.99 0.26
CAD $/bu 5.68 5.62 5.55 6.39
CAD $/tonne 208.64 206.33 204.02 234.88
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
London 0.97 1.28 0.91 N/A 1.09 0.84 0.78 N/A
Hensall 1.05 N/A 0.90 N/A 1.00 N/A 0.80 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Bruce 1.05 1.05 0.90 0.25 1.00 0.85 0.80 0.35
Essex N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A N/A 0.74 N/A
Norwich 1.05 N/A 0.90 N/A 1.00 N/A 0.80 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A 0.85 0.80 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.00 N/A 0.90 N/A 1.00 N/A 0.80 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.80 0.80 0.25 N/A 0.75 0.80 0.35
Varna 1.20 0.95 0.90 N/A 1.00 0.80 0.80 N/A
Mitchell 1.05 1.05 0.90 N/A 1.00 0.85 0.80 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.66 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.95 0.97 0.20 N/A 1.07 1.04 0.20
W O Feed 1.40
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.30 N/A N/A N/A 1.23 N/A
Toledo El. 4.51US 5.68CA 4.68US 5.87CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.11 0.98 0.92 0.25
CAD $/bu 5.93 5.80 5.74 6.62
CAD $/tonne 217.90 213.29 210.99 243.38
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 470.36
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 245.00 - 255.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for February 7, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, February 7, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.61 ↑ 05 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 9.96 ↑ 04 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 4.51 ↑ 18 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 6.07 ↑ 01 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 4.67 ↑ 35 cents
Chicago Oats Mar 2.65 ↓ 10 cents
Canadian $ Mar .8130 ↑ 0.23 points
Notice: The commentary for all commodities was written at 10 a.m. on February 8 before the release of the February United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.
Corn:
Charts are still looking very constructive. We have now set ourselves up to challenge the major trend line on the weekly charts at the $3.70 level on the March contract. There is a chance we may have another pull back from this level as it has been strong coming up to the line. The biggest reason for this rally, in my opinion, is the weakness in the U.S. dollar. Markets could get choppier than normal as spring approaches and the dollar volatility continues. Initial support is now at $3.50 while overhead resistance is at $3.70 - $3.80. The primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
The soybean chart, which has given us two red buy signals, is behaving as expected. The four-year-old down trend line has been negated. The weekly chart shows a clear break of the down-trend line, and the momentum is starting to build as we push through the tough resistance from the main trend line at $10.75 - $11. Support is seen on the March charts at the $9.70 - $9.80 level while our overhead resistance level is still at the $10.25 - $10.75 level.
Short term indicators are positive and a close above $11 would convince me that we have turned the corner on this bear market. Meanwhile, the primary trend is still neutral and a close above $11 could turn our final hold-out, the monthly chart, positive for the end of the six-year-old bear market.
Wheat:
Another great week for the March wheat contract, as we are still hovering at the $4.60 resistance level. The next target for the March wheat contract is at the $4.80 level. The charts seem to be forming an inverted head which is very bullish and although it may take a several months to complete, it suggests much higher prices coming into late spring. We will move our support line on the March chart up to $4.30 for the time being, and once we clear the $4.60 on a strong close, we are ready for the big test at $4.80 and higher.
The weekly trend line has not only broken the down-trend, but came back, tested it, and flashed a red buy signal all in the past two weeks. Indicators are positive. Both daily and weekly indicators are now bullish, and our primary trend has turned neutral from bearish.
Cash Grain prices as of the close, February 7, are as follows:
SWW @ $210.13 ($5.72/bu), HRW @ $207.82/MT ($5.66/bu),
HRS @ $233.89/MT ($6.37/bu), SRW @ $205.52/MT ($5.59/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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