[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Feb 1 15:24:14 EST 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, February 1
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2265 down 0.0041
Chicago corn closed steady to slightly higher.
MAR18 HI 3.62 DEC18 HI 3.93 1/2
LOW 3.58 1/2 LOW 3.90 3/4
CLOSE3.61 3/4 Up 1/4 CLOSE 3.93 1/4 Unchanged
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY18+MAY18+JUL18
CK Low 0.55 4.17 164.07 0.55 4.48 176.47
CK High 0.60 4.22 166.04 0.65 4.58 180.41
CK Avg 0.57 -0.21 4.18 164.72 0.58 -0.25 4.51 177.45
Essex Cty 0.60 4.22 166.04 0.65 4.58 180.41
Mdsx Low 0.55 4.17 164.07 0.55 4.48 176.47
Mdsx High 0.60 4.22 166.04 0.55 4.48 176.47
Mdsx Avg 0.58 -0.20 4.19 165.05 0.55 -0.27 4.48 176.47
Hensall 0.60 4.22 166.04 0.55 4.48 176.47
Bruce 0.60 4.22 166.04 0.55 4.48 176.47
Putnam 0.60 4.22 166.04 0.55 4.48 176.47
Burford 0.60 4.22 166.04 0.55 4.48 176.47
Port Perry 0.60 4.22 166.04 0.60 4.53 178.44
Norfolk 0.55 4.17 164.07 0.55 4.48 176.47
Palmerston 0.60 4.22 166.04 0.65 4.58 180.41
Varna 0.60 4.22 166.04 0.55 4.48 176.47
Trenton 0.65 4.27 168.00 0.75 4.68 184.34
Winchester 0.95 4.57 179.81 0.85 4.78 188.28
North Gower 0.90 4.52 177.85 0.82 4.75 187.10
Huron FOB 0.75 4.37 171.94 0.60 4.53 178.44
Kent FOB 0.80 4.42 173.91 0.60 4.53 178.44
Lamb FOB 0.75 4.37 171.94 0.65 4.58 180.41
Mdsx FOB 0.65N/A N/A N/A 4.27 168.00 0.60 4.53 178.44
FOB SW Que 1.28 4.90 192.81 0.86 4.79 188.67
Track 1.03 4.64 182.77N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth 0.95 0.93 0.99 0.97 4.57 179.81 0.80 4.73 186.31
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.85 0.85 0.80 0.95 4.47 175.88 N/A
Sarn-Eth 0.95 0.95N/A N/A 4.57 179.81N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.88 192.22
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.90 4.83 190.25
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.10 5.03 198.12
W O Feed 1.11 4.73 186.27
US Rep 1.14 4.76 187.29
Toledo El. -0.04 3.58 140.97 -0.24 3.69 145.17
MID SD CRN 0.57 1/2 4.19 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.60 4.21 3/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.2265 down 0.0041
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
MAR18 HI 9.95 1/2 NOV18 HI 10.10 3/4
LOW 9.77 1/2 LOW 9.97
CLOSE9.85 Down 10 3/4 CLOSE 10.04 1/2 Down 6 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAY1+MAY18
CK Low 1.60 11.45 420.721.50 11.55 424.21
CK High 1.65 11.50 422.551.65 11.70 429.72
CK Average 1.62 -0.5011.47 421.391.59 -0.5511.63 427.45
Essex Cty 1.60 11.45 420.721.45 11.50 422.37
Mdsx Low 1.60 11.45 420.721.58 11.63 427.15
Mdsx High 1.61 11.46 421.081.65 11.70 429.72
Mdsx Average 1.61 -0.5111.46 420.901.62 -0.5311.66 428.43
Hensall 1.60 11.45 420.721.65 11.70 429.72
Bruce 1.60 11.45 420.721.65 11.70 429.72
Putnam 1.60 11.45 420.721.65 11.70 429.72
Burford 1.68 11.53 423.651.65 11.70 429.72
Port Perry 1.61 11.46 421.081.58 11.63 427.15
Norfolk 1.60 11.45 420.721.65 11.70 429.72
Palmerston 1.60 11.45 420.721.55 11.60 426.04
Varna 1.60 11.45 420.721.65 11.70 429.72
Trenton 1.60 11.45 420.721.65 11.70 429.72
Winchester 1.58 11.43 419.981.63 11.68 428.98
North Gower 1.57 11.42 419.611.66 11.71 430.09
Huron FOB 1.70 11.55 424.391.70 11.75 431.55
Kent FOB 1.75 11.60 426.231.60 11.65 427.88
Lambton FOB 1.80 11.65 428.061.75 11.80 433.39
Middlesex FOB1.72 1.78 1.73 1.73 11.57 425.121.67 11.72 430.45
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 2.05 12.10 444.42
Prescott 1.68 11.53 423.651.89 11.94 438.54
Toledo El. -0.23 9.62 353.36-0.37 9.68 355.59
Exchange rate was 1.2265 down 0.0041
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
MAR18 HI 4.51 1/2 JUL18 HI 4.78 1/2
LOW 4.43 1/4 LOW 4.70 1/2
CLOSE 4.51 Down 3/4 CLOSE 4.78 Down 1
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
MAR18 HI 6.12 1/2 SEP18 HI 6.29 1/4
LOW 6.05 1/2 LOW 6.23
CLOSE 6.11 3/4 Up 4 1/2 CLOSE 6.28 1/2 Up 3 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.96 0.90 0.84 0.10
CAD $/bu 5.47 5.41 5.35 6.22
CAD $/tonne 200.99 198.74 196.48 228.37
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
London 0.83 1.14 0.77 N/A 0.95 0.70 0.64 N/A
Hensall 0.90 N/A 0.75 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.65 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Bruce 0.90 0.95 0.75 N/A 0.90 0.75 0.65 0.25
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.54 N/A
Norwich 0.90 N/A 0.75 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.65 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A 0.70 0.70 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.85 N/A 0.75 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.65 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.80 0.80 0.25 N/A 0.75 0.80 0.35
Varna 1.05 0.80 0.75 N/A 0.85 0.65 0.65 N/A
Mitchell 0.90 0.95 0.75 N/A 0.90 0.75 0.65 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.88 0.80 0.11 N/A 0.90 0.83 0.08
W O Feed 1.38
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.14 N/A N/A N/A 1.07 N/A
Toledo El. 4.46US 5.47CA 4.63US 5.67CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.95 0.83 0.77 0.07
CAD $/bu 5.73 5.61 5.55 6.35
CAD $/tonne 210.63 206.13 203.88 233.36
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 462.98
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 245.00 - 255.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for January 31, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, January 31, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.61 ↑ 05 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 9.96 ↑ 04 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 4.51 ↑ 18 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 6.07 ↑ 01 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 4.67 ↑ 35 cents
Chicago Oats Mar 2.65 ↓ 10 cents
Canadian $ Mar .8130 ↑ 0.23 points
Corn:
Last week’s commentary hit our $3.55 resistance and closed just above it. I was reluctant to call it a reversal until we saw how the next session would play out. Well, it gave us a red buy signal on the daily chart and I’ll take that as a positive sign. We now have our sights set on the four- year-old trend line that cuts across the $3.70 - $3.80 price point on the lead month chart. Our gap on the continuation chart worked picture perfect and it is confirming that our $3.70 target is in its sights. Short term indicators have turned positive and the weekly charts are also positive. This leaves just the monthly charts in a negative mode. One step at a time. If you want an excuse for this move, my reason would simply be the weakness in the U.S. dollar which technically has a lot more room on the downside. Initial support is now at $3.50 while overhead resistance is at $3.75. The primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
The soybean chart, which has given us two red buy signals, is behaving as expected. The four-year-old down trend line has been negated. Once the momentum starts to push prices higher, we will be looking for a break above the stubborn resistance between $10.25 and $10.75 to turn this market back into a bullish mode for the first time since it ran its course in 2012. The weekly chart shows a clear break of the down-trend line, and the momentum is starting to build as we push through the tough resistance from $10.25 - $10.75. Support is seen on the March charts at the $9.70-$9.80 level while our overhead resistance level is still at the $10.25 level.
Short term indicators are positive and a close above $11 would convince me that we have turned the corner on this bear market. Meanwhile, the primary trend is still down.
Wheat:
Another great week for the March wheat contract as we broke above the $4.35 resistance level and went directly to our next resistance level of $4.60. Like corn, wheat pulled back to our trading gap perfectly and then moved higher.
We will leave our support line on the March chart at $4.10 for the time being, but our overhead headwinds now appear on the March chart at $4.60 - $4.80
The weekly trend line has not only broken the down-trend, but came back, tested it, and flashed a red buy signal all in the past two weeks.
Indicators are positive. Both daily and weekly indicators are now bullish, but the primary trend is still down.
Cash Grain prices as of the close, January 31, are as follows:
SWW @ $202.10MT ($5.50/bu), HRW @ $199.84/MT ($5.44/bu),
HRS @ $226.97/MT ($6.18/bu), SRW @ $197.58/MT ($5.38/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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