[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Dec 20 15:36:10 EST 2018


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, December 20
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.3465 up 0.0034
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.

      MAR19   HI 3.82  3/4                    DEC19    HI 4.03  1/4
             LOW 3.75                                 LOW 3.96  1/2
            CLOSE3.75  1/4  Down 6 1/2              CLOSE 3.96  3/4  Down 5 3/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +MAR19+MAR19+MAY19
CK Low       0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.85         4.82 189.66
CK High      0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.90         4.87 191.63
CK Avg       0.95                  -0.26 4.70 185.13  0.86 -0.38   4.83 190.05
Essex Cty    0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.85         4.82 189.66
Mdsx Low     0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.85         4.82 189.66
Mdsx High    0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.90         4.87 191.63
Mdsx Avg     0.95                  -0.26 4.70 185.13  0.88 -0.37   4.84 190.64
Hensall      0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.85         4.82 189.66
Bruce        0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.85         4.82 189.66
Putnam       0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.85         4.82 189.66
Burford      0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.90         4.87 191.63
Port Perry   0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.90         4.87 191.63
Norfolk      0.95                        4.70 185.13  0.85         4.82 189.66
Palmerston   0.90                        4.65 183.16  0.85         4.82 189.66
Varna        0.90                        4.65 183.16  0.85         4.82 189.66
Trenton      0.90                        4.65 183.16  0.85         4.82 189.66
Winchester   1.20                        4.95 194.97  1.15         5.12 201.47
North Gower  1.15                        4.90 193.00  1.12         5.09 200.29
Huron FOB    1.25                        5.00 196.94  0.90         4.87 191.63
Kent FOB     1.25                        5.00 196.94  0.90         4.87 191.63
Lamb FOB     1.20                        4.95 194.97  0.95         4.92 193.59
Mdsx FOB     1.30N/A   N/A   N/A         5.05 198.91  0.95         4.92 193.59
FOB SW Que   1.52                        5.27 207.57N/A
Track        1.38                        5.13 201.86N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A     1.51  1.45                   1.14         5.11 201.07
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A     1.56                   1.28         5.25 206.58
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A     1.50  1.45                   1.10         5.07 199.50
Sarn-Eth    N/A    1.30  1.35N/A                    N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.55  1.50                   1.10         5.07 199.50
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      1.30         5.27 207.37
W O Feed     1.67                        5.42 213.32

US Rep       1.80                        5.55 218.59
Toledo El.  -0.19                        3.56 140.31 -0.27         3.70 145.61


MID SD CRN   0.95                        4.70 1/4
HI SD CRN    0.95                        4.70 1/4
*Wet Bid


Exchange rate was 1.3465 up 0.0034
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.

       JAN19   HI 9.05  1/2           NOV19    HI 9.53  1/4
              LOW 8.92  3/4                   LOW 9.42  1/4
             CLOSE8.93  1/2  Down 6 1/2     CLOSE 9.42  3/4  Down 6 1/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +JAN1+MAR1+MAR19
CK Low       2.22                     11.16 409.882.38      11.81 433.85
CK High      2.30                     11.24 412.822.40      11.83 434.59
CK Average   2.28                -0.6011.22 412.232.40 -0.6311.82 434.44
Essex Cty    2.30                     11.24 412.822.45      11.88 436.42
Mdsx Low     2.26                     11.20 411.352.40      11.83 434.59
Mdsx High    2.30                     11.24 412.822.42      11.85 435.32
Mdsx Average 2.28                -0.6111.22 412.082.41 -0.6211.84 434.95
Hensall      2.30                     11.24 412.822.40      11.83 434.59
Bruce        2.30                     11.24 412.822.40      11.83 434.59
Putnam       2.30                     11.24 412.822.40      11.83 434.59
Burford      2.26                     11.20 411.352.42      11.85 435.32
Port Perry   2.22                     11.16 409.882.38      11.81 433.85
Norfolk      2.30                     11.24 412.822.40      11.83 434.59
Palmerston   2.35                     11.29 414.652.35      11.78 432.75
Varna        2.30                     11.24 412.822.35      11.78 432.75
Trenton      2.30                     11.24 412.822.40      11.83 434.59
Winchester   2.32                     11.26 413.552.42      11.85 435.32
North Gower  2.50                     11.44 420.162.43      11.86 435.69
Huron FOB    2.45                     11.39 418.332.50      11.93 438.26
Kent FOB     2.40                     11.34 416.492.40      11.83 434.59
Lambton FOB  2.20                     11.14 409.142.55      11.98 440.10
Middlesex FOB2.22 2.42 2.53 2.58      11.16 409.882.52      11.95 439.00

PROCESSORS
Windsor      2.73  N/A  N/A  N/A      11.67 428.622.90      12.33 452.96

TRANSFER
Hamilton     2.70                     11.64 427.512.80      12.23 449.28
Prescott      N/A                                 2.90      12.33 452.96

Toledo El.   -0.51                     8.42 309.50-0.40      9.02 331.58


Exchange rate was 1.3465 up 0.0034
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
MAR19      HI     5.27  3/4             JUL19   HI      5.41  1/2
           LOW    5.21  1/4                     LOW        5.36
           CLOSE  5.23  1/2  Up 1               CLOSE   5.38  1/4  Up 1 1/4

Minni wheat closed slightly lower to steady.
MAR19      HI     5.76  1/4             SEP19   HI      5.94  3/4
           LOW    5.67  1/2                     LOW     5.88  1/2
           CLOSE  5.68   Down  1/2              CLOSE   5.89   Unchanged

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.34          1.54            1.34          0.82
CAD $/bu              6.58          6.78            6.58          6.50
CAD $/tonne         241.69        249.11          241.69        238.97


Direct MarkHarvest 2018                 Harvest 2019
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    1.40    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.25    N/A
London      1.60    1.46   1.33    N/A    1.63    1.50   1.23    N/A
Hensall     1.60    N/A    1.40    N/A    1.65    N/A    1.25    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.25    N/A
Bruce       1.45    1.60   1.40   1.10    1.35    1.60   1.25   1.00
Essex        N/A    N/A    1.40    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.25    N/A
Norwich     1.60    N/A    1.40    N/A    1.65    N/A    1.25    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    N/A    1.40    N/A    N/A     1.35   1.25    N/A
Kent Bridge 1.60    N/A    1.40    N/A    1.65    N/A    1.25    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    1.40    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.25    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    1.40    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.25    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.50   1.20   0.80    N/A     1.45   1.10   0.80
Varna       1.60    1.60   1.40    N/A    1.35    1.50   1.25    N/A
Mitchell    1.60    1.40   1.40    N/A    1.65    1.40   1.25    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.77    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.30   1.13   0.64    N/A     1.34   1.28   0.55
W O Feed                   1.92


PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    2.02    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.99    N/A

Toledo El. 5.19US         6.98CA         5.23US         7.04CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 19        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.38          1.45            1.38          0.75
CAD $/bu              6.77          6.83            6.77          6.64
CAD $/tonne         248.62        251.09          248.62        244.05

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             492.41
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      150.00 - 165.00

----


Ontario Grain Market Commentary for December 19, 2018

By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario


Futures Prices as of close, December 19, 2018
Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT Mar 3.82 ↓ 03 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 9.13 ↓ 20 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 5.22 ↓ 04 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 5.68 ↓ 15 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 5.08 ↓ 03 cents
Oats CBOT Mar 2.86 ↓ 07 cents
Canadian $ Dec 0.7429 ↓ 0.65 points


Corn:
We show support at the $3.80 level on the March contract. The gap should be filled in the next day or two and from there we could see a continued move higher. The flag formation extends to at least $3.90 on March and possibly closer to the big $4 handle.
Both short and mid-term indicators are now positive, but the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans:
There was a pullback in the grains this week and we are now looking to find support coming into the holidays. For soybeans, we see support at the $8.80 - $9 level on the March contract. This is important support and if it fails on a close we should consider a move back to the recent bottom at the $8.40 level.
Our $9.40 resistance level endured and we are now getting the correction before another possible assault on that level.  Short term indicators are still positive, while the primary trend remains down. Resistance has moved down to the $9.40 - $9.50 level on the March contract.
Short- and medium-term indicators remain neutral to slightly bullish while the primary trend remains down.

Wheat:
We are now back revisiting the support level of $5.18 on the March contract. If this area holds on any given close, we should see the March futures begin to move higher to revisit the recent highs at $5.40. With the holidays fast approaching, the trading may be thin and we could see a quiet market until after the 25th. Overall, the weekly charts still look very constructive and I still feel we will see stronger prices in the spring.
Support is seen at $5.18 and again at $5 while stiff overhead resistance is at $5.50 on the March futures.
Short term indicators are bullish, and the primary trend is neutral to bullish.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, December 19, 2018 are as follows:
SWW @ $240.96/MT ($6.56/bu), HRW @ $248.38/MT ($6.76/bu),
 HRS @ $238.98/MT ($6.50/bu),  SRW @ $240.96/MT ($6.56/bu).

---

Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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