[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Apr 19 15:14:24 EDT 2018


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, April 19
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.266 up 0.0041
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.

      MAY18   HI 3.83  1/2                    DEC18    HI 4.09
             LOW 3.80  3/4                            LOW 4.06  1/4
            CLOSE3.82   Down 1                      CLOSE 4.08   Down  1/2

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +JUL18+JUL18+SEP18
CK Low       0.70                        4.52 177.94  0.65         4.73 186.21
CK High      0.84                        4.66 183.46  0.75         4.83 190.15
CK Avg       0.76                  -0.20 4.58 180.18  0.67 -0.33   4.75 186.87
Essex Cty    0.84                        4.66 183.46  0.65         4.73 186.21
Mdsx Low     0.75                        4.57 179.91  0.65         4.73 186.21
Mdsx High    0.80                        4.62 181.88  0.70         4.78 188.18
Mdsx Avg     0.78                  -0.19 4.60 180.90  0.68 -0.32   4.76 187.20
Hensall      0.80                        4.62 181.88  0.70         4.78 188.18
Bruce        0.80                        4.62 181.88  0.70         4.78 188.18
Putnam       0.80                        4.62 181.88  0.70         4.78 188.18
Burford      0.80                        4.62 181.88  0.70         4.78 188.18
Port Perry   0.80                        4.62 181.88  0.70         4.78 188.18
Norfolk      0.84                        4.66 183.46  0.70         4.78 188.18
Palmerston   0.75                        4.57 179.91  0.65         4.73 186.21
Varna        0.80                        4.62 181.88  0.70         4.78 188.18
Trenton      0.85                        4.67 183.85  0.80         4.88 192.12
Winchester   0.96                        4.78 188.18  1.06         5.14 202.35
North Gower  0.97                        4.79 188.57  1.02         5.10 200.78
Huron FOB    1.00                        4.82 189.76  0.80         4.88 192.12
Kent FOB     0.99                        4.81 189.36  0.70         4.78 188.18
Lamb FOB     0.95                        4.77 187.79  0.75         4.83 190.15
Mdsx FOB     0.85  0.85  0.85N/A         4.67 183.85  0.80         4.88 192.12
FOB SW Que   1.32                        5.14 202.35N/A
Track        1.23                        5.05 198.61N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.86         4.94 194.48
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A    1.10  1.10  1.15                   0.90         4.98 196.05
Sarn-Eth     1.10  1.10  1.10N/A         4.92 193.69N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.95         5.03 198.02
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      1.07         5.15 202.75
W O Feed     1.28                        5.10 200.70

US Rep       1.34                        5.16 203.14
Toledo El.  -0.01                        3.81 149.89 -0.25         3.83 150.65


MID SD CRN   0.77                        4.59         0.70         4.78
HI SD CRN    0.84                        4.66         0.75         4.83
*Wet Bid


Exchange rate was 1.266 up 0.0041
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.

       MAY18   HI 10.44  3/4          NOV18    HI 10.47  3/4
              LOW 10.32  3/4                  LOW 10.37  3/4
             CLOSE10.37  1/4  Down 4 1/2    CLOSE 10.42  1/2  Down 3 1/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +MAY1+JUL1+JUL18
CK Low       2.09                     12.46 457.922.10      12.53 460.21
CK High      2.15                     12.52 460.122.15      12.58 462.05
CK Average   2.12                -0.5112.49 458.842.12 -0.5212.54 460.89
Essex Cty    2.20                     12.57 461.962.05      12.48 458.38
Mdsx Low     2.09                     12.46 457.922.11      12.54 460.58
Mdsx High    2.10                     12.47 458.292.15      12.58 462.05
Mdsx Average 2.10                -0.5212.47 458.102.13 -0.5112.56 461.32
Hensall      2.10                     12.47 458.292.15      12.58 462.05
Bruce        2.10                     12.47 458.292.10      12.53 460.21
Putnam       2.10                     12.47 458.292.15      12.58 462.05
Burford      2.16                     12.53 460.492.18      12.61 463.15
Port Perry   2.09                     12.46 457.922.11      12.54 460.58
Norfolk      2.10                     12.47 458.292.15      12.58 462.05
Palmerston   2.15                     12.52 460.122.15      12.58 462.05
Varna        2.10                     12.47 458.292.15      12.58 462.05
Trenton      2.15                     12.52 460.122.15      12.58 462.05
Winchester   1.92                     12.29 451.672.23      12.66 464.99
North Gower  2.00                     12.37 454.612.09      12.52 459.85
Huron FOB    2.20                     12.57 461.962.25      12.68 465.73
Kent FOB     2.25                     12.62 463.802.10      12.53 460.21
Lambton FOB  2.25                     12.62 463.802.25      12.68 465.73
Middlesex FOB2.26 2.33 2.33 2.40      12.63 464.162.28      12.71 466.83


TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                 2.55      12.98 476.75
Prescott     2.10                     12.47 458.292.45      12.88 473.08

Toledo El.   -0.27                    10.11 371.36-0.32     10.11 371.42


Exchange rate was 1.266 up 0.0041
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
MAY18      HI         4.80              JUL18   HI         4.94
           LOW    4.71  3/4                     LOW        4.85
           CLOSE  4.76  3/4  Up 1 1/2           CLOSE   4.90  3/4  Up 1 1/2

Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
MAY18      HI     6.19  3/4             SEP18   HI      6.31  1/2
           LOW    6.08  1/4                     LOW     6.19  1/2
           CLOSE  6.13  1/4  Down 4 3/4         CLOSE   6.24   Down 5 3/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.20          1.14            0.95          0.30
CAD $/bu              5.97          5.91            5.72          6.43
CAD $/tonne         219.44        217.12          210.14        236.42


Direct MarkHarvest 2017                 Harvest 2018
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.85    N/A
London      1.02    1.09   0.84    N/A    1.12    0.93   0.87    N/A
Hensall     1.10    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.90    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.00    N/A
Bruce       1.10    1.10   0.85   0.25    1.15    1.00   0.90   0.50
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.47    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.80    N/A
Norwich     1.10    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.90    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     1.00   1.00    N/A
Kent Bridge 1.10    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.15    N/A    0.90    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.85    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.85    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.00   0.90   0.25    N/A     0.90   0.85   0.35
Varna       1.15    1.20   0.85    N/A    1.10    1.10   0.90    N/A
Mitchell    1.10    1.10   0.85    N/A    1.15    1.00   0.90    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.90    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    1.02   0.88   0.09    N/A     1.16   1.10   0.21
W O Feed                   1.44


PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.39    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.31    N/A

Toledo El. 4.97US         6.29CA         4.96US         6.28CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.18          1.05            0.99          0.27
CAD $/bu              6.09          5.96            5.90          6.51
CAD $/tonne         223.63        218.98          216.65        239.10

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             549.84
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      245.00 - 250.00

---

Ontario Grain Market Commentary for April 18, 2018

By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario


Wednesday, April 18, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May 3.83 ↓ 04 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 10.42 ↓ 06 cents
Wheat CBOT May 4.75 ↓ 12 cents
Wheat Minn. May 6.18 ↓ 11 cents
Wheat Kansas May 5.08 ↓ 24 cents
Chicago Oats May 2.39 ↓ 05 cents
Canadian $ Mar .7925 ↓ 0.25 points


Corn:
We stalled as expected at the $4 level on the July futures since our last report. From these levels on both May and July I expect more of a sideways to lower price movement before we challenge the all-important $4 level once again. We will be switching over to the July contract for my next commentary on April 25. Meanwhile, we will continue to use the May contract this week for our analysis. Support on the May contract is still at $3.70 with minor support at the $3.85 level, while $4 is still the big target we need to negate to get this bull on the run.
Intermediate trend is still up while the primary trend is still down. Our charts indicate we need a close above the $4.40 level on the lead month contract before we can get excited about a primary trend reversal.

Soybeans:
Like the other grains, last week was the major resistance for soybeans. We are behaving nicely as the prices are quiet and somewhat softer on the futures contract. We are, however, getting ready for an assault on the major downtrend line that cuts across the $10.80 on the lead month contract. Timing is the big unknown here as we could probe lower in the coming weeks before the attempt is made.
Initial support is seen on the May charts at the $10 - $10.20 level, with major support at the $9.50 level, while our overhead resistance level is still at the $10.80 level.
Indicators are mixed as the short term and intermediate trend is neutral to bullish, but the primary trend is still down.

Wheat:
We are getting the correction that I anticipated in the last commentary. It now, however, looks like it may be a little deeper than expected. My belief was that we would pull back to the initial support at the $4.75 level on the May futures contract but we are currently there and the move looks unfinished. The $5.20 level is the primary trend line so it is not uncommon that the pullback before the re-test is initiated could be significant. Looking at the charts, I now feel we could see a test of the $4.40 level one more time and a worst case would be a move all the way back to the $4 support level without disrupting the chart pattern. Either way, I feel we will re-test the primary downtrend line on the wheat which currently sits around the $5.20 price point based on the lead month futures chart.
We still have mixed signals as the daily and intermediate trends are still neutral, but the primary trend is still down.
A convincing close above the $5.25 on the lead month contract is necessary to break the back of this bear market.

Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, April 18, are as follows:
SWW @ $222.08 ($6.04/bu), HRW @ $217.44/MT ($5.92/bu),
 HRS @ $240.99/MT ($6.56/bu), SRW @ $215.13/MT ($5.85/bu).
----

Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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