[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Apr 12 15:23:53 EDT 2018
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, April 12
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2569 up 0.0009
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
MAY18 HI 3.89 1/4 DEC18 HI 4.13 3/4
LOW 3.85 LOW 4.10
CLOSE3.88 3/4 Up 1 3/4 CLOSE 4.13 1/2 Up 1 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL18+JUL18+SEP18
CK Low 0.70 4.59 180.60 0.65 4.79 188.38
CK High 0.80 4.69 184.54 0.80 4.94 194.28
CK Avg 0.76 -0.19 4.65 182.90 0.68 -0.30 4.82 189.69
Essex Cty 0.80 4.69 184.54 0.70 4.84 190.35
Mdsx Low 0.75 4.64 182.57 0.65 4.79 188.38
Mdsx High 0.80 4.69 184.54 0.70 4.84 190.35
Mdsx Avg 0.78 -0.18 4.66 183.55 0.68 -0.31 4.81 189.36
Hensall 0.80 4.69 184.54 0.73 4.86 191.33
Bruce 0.80 4.69 184.54 0.70 4.84 190.35
Putnam 0.80 4.69 184.54 0.75 4.89 192.31
Burford 0.80 4.69 184.54 0.70 4.84 190.35
Port Perry 0.75 4.64 182.57 0.70 4.84 190.35
Norfolk 0.85 4.74 186.51 0.75 4.89 192.31
Palmerston 0.75 4.64 182.57 0.65 4.79 188.38
Varna 0.80 4.69 184.54 0.75 4.89 192.31
Trenton 0.85 4.74 186.51 0.80 4.94 194.28
Winchester 1.00 4.89 192.41 1.10 5.24 206.09
North Gower 0.95 4.84 190.44 1.00 5.14 202.16
Huron FOB 0.95 4.84 190.44 0.80 4.94 194.28
Kent FOB 0.95 4.84 190.44 0.75 4.89 192.31
Lamb FOB 0.97 4.86 191.23 0.75 4.89 192.31
Mdsx FOB 0.85 0.85 0.85N/A 4.74 186.51 0.80 4.94 194.28
FOB SW Que 1.31 5.20 204.62N/A
Track 1.23 5.11 201.27N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.89 5.03 197.83
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.10 1.10 1.15 0.93 5.07 199.40
Sarn-Eth 1.10 1.10 1.10N/A 4.99 196.35N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 5.09 200.19
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.07 5.21 204.91
W O Feed 1.31 5.20 204.70
US Rep 1.38 5.27 207.37
Toledo El. -0.05 3.84 151.06 -0.25 3.88 152.89
MID SD CRN 0.75 4.63 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.80 4.68 3/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.2569 up 0.0009
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.
MAY18 HI 10.61 3/4 NOV18 HI 10.56 1/2
LOW 10.47 1/4 LOW 10.44
CLOSE10.60 3/4 Up 13 CLOSE 10.53 1/2 Up 7
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY1+JUL1+JUL18
CK Low 2.10 12.71 466.922.10 12.64 464.26
CK High 2.15 12.76 468.762.15 12.69 466.09
CK Average 2.12 -0.4812.73 467.722.12 -0.4712.66 465.05
Essex Cty 2.20 12.81 470.602.05 12.59 462.42
Mdsx Low 2.10 12.71 466.922.13 12.67 465.36
Mdsx High 2.13 12.74 468.022.15 12.69 466.09
Mdsx Average 2.12 -0.4912.72 467.472.14 -0.4512.68 465.73
Hensall 2.10 12.71 466.922.15 12.69 466.09
Bruce 2.10 12.71 466.922.10 12.64 464.26
Putnam 2.10 12.71 466.922.15 12.69 466.09
Burford 2.20 12.81 470.602.20 12.74 467.93
Port Perry 2.13 12.74 468.022.13 12.67 465.36
Norfolk 2.10 12.71 466.922.15 12.69 466.09
Palmerston 2.20 12.81 470.602.15 12.69 466.09
Varna 2.10 12.71 466.922.15 12.69 466.09
Trenton 2.15 12.76 468.762.10 12.64 464.26
Winchester 2.00 12.61 463.252.05 12.59 462.42
North Gower 1.98 12.59 462.512.00 12.54 460.58
Huron FOB 2.20 12.81 470.602.25 12.79 469.77
Kent FOB 2.25 12.86 472.432.10 12.64 464.26
Lambton FOB 2.15 12.76 468.762.15 12.69 466.09
Middlesex FOB2.23 2.31 2.31 2.31 12.84 471.702.23 12.77 469.03
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A 2.70 13.24 486.30
Prescott 2.42 13.03 478.682.45 12.99 477.12
Toledo El. -0.26 10.34 380.06-0.31 10.22 375.55
Exchange rate was 1.2569 up 0.0009
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
MAY18 HI 4.84 3/4 JUL18 HI 5.01 1/2
LOW 4.74 3/4 LOW 4.92
CLOSE 4.81 Down 6 1/4 CLOSE 4.98 1/4 Down 6
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
MAY18 HI 6.28 3/4 SEP18 HI 6.41 3/4
LOW 6.21 LOW 6.35 1/2
CLOSE 6.23 Down 6 CLOSE 6.37 Down 4 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.17 1.11 0.92 0.28
CAD $/bu 5.98 5.92 5.73 6.51
CAD $/tonne 219.83 217.52 210.60 239.23
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
London 1.05 1.11 0.86 N/A 1.14 0.96 0.83 N/A
Hensall 1.10 N/A 0.85 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.90 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Bruce 1.10 1.10 0.85 0.25 1.15 1.00 0.90 0.50
Essex N/A N/A 0.60 N/A N/A N/A 0.82 N/A
Norwich 1.10 N/A 0.85 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.90 N/A
Port Hope N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A 1.00 1.00 N/A
Kent Bridge 1.10 N/A 0.85 N/A 1.15 N/A 0.90 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.00 0.90 0.25 N/A 0.90 0.85 0.35
Varna 1.15 1.20 0.85 N/A 1.10 1.10 0.90 N/A
Mitchell 1.10 1.10 0.85 N/A 1.15 1.00 0.90 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.89 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.02 0.88 0.09 N/A 1.18 1.12 0.21
W O Feed 1.52
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.36 N/A N/A N/A 1.28 N/A
Toledo El. 4.91US 6.17CA 4.98US 6.26CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.15 1.03 0.97 0.25
CAD $/bu 6.14 6.01 5.95 6.62
CAD $/tonne 225.49 220.87 218.56 243.39
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 557.12
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 240.00 - 245.00
----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for April 11, 2018
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, April 11, 2018 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May 3.87 ↓ 02 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 10.48 ↑ 35 cents
Wheat CBOT May 4.87 ↑ 32 cents
Wheat Minn. May 6.29 ↑ 52 cents
Wheat Kansas May 5.36 ↑ 50 cents
Chicago Oats May 2.44 ↑ 14 cents
Canadian $ Mar .7963 ↑ 1.25 points
Corn:
I was on holidays last week and missed the excitement. I suggested we could pull back to the $3.70 support and we did exactly that, making a low of $3.72 on April 4. We reversed course and by April 5 we closed at $3.90. Now comes the big test: the need to close above $4 on the May futures contract. If we were to see this happen in the next week, our new target would be a shot at the $4.40 level on the May futures before it expires. We may indeed trade sideways to lower in the coming week before such an attempt is made.
Support is still at the $3.70 level while $4 is the big roadblock going forward.
Intermediate trend is still up while the primary trend is still down.
Soybeans:
The soybean chart had an amazing technical week while I was on holidays. As we mentioned in my last commentary, we were hitting resistance and needed a pullback to the $10 level and possibly the $9.50 level. This was achieved in a short two days, and more importantly the move back to the starting point is a sign that the correction is over and that we should be now looking for higher prices into the summer. The assault on the major resistance at $10.80 on the May contract is just a matter of time. If we manage to close above the all-important $11 price level on the May contract, we will have broken the primary trend line and that would turn our primary trend from a six- year-old bear market to a neutral market going forward.
Initial support is seen on the May charts at the $10 - $10.20 level, while our overhead resistance level is still at the $10.80 level.
Indicators are mixed as the short term indicators are now neutral, the intermediate trend is bullish, all while the primary trend is still down.
Wheat:
My belief that we would revisit the $4.40 level on the May contract from my March 28 commentary came within one cent of being fulfilled on April 4 as we hit a low of $4.41. We moved higher over the past week and are getting ready for an assault on the $5.20 resistance and down-trend line. We may see one more correction before this shot is initiated. My best guess would be a move back to the $4.75 level on May before we continue higher. The weekly chart portrays a long term downtrend line right around the $5.20 level on the lead month contract. If and when we negate that price and close higher, we will be well into the process of breaking the back of the last remaining grains down-trend based on their weekly charts.
Once the last hold-out (wheat) neutralizes the intermediate trend line, it will just be a matter of time before we continue higher and turn the grains from neutral to bullish. When this occurs, I will be looking for a multi-year rally in all of the grains going forward.
Daily indicators are now neutral, the intermediate trend is still neutral, but the primary trend is still down.
A close above the $5.25 on the lead month contract could put our bear market at risk of turning positive for the first time in many years.
Harvest 2018 Grain prices as of the close, April 11, are as follows:
SWW @ $228.41 ($6.22/bu), HRW @ $223.79/MT ($6.09/bu),
HRS @ $245.48/MT ($6.68/bu), SRW @ $221.48/MT ($6/03/bu).
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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