[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Closing Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jul 19 15:41:39 EDT 2017
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, July 19
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2593 down 0.0021
Chicago corn closed moderately higher.
SEP17 HI 3.89 DEC17 HI 4.02 1/2
LOW 3.74 1/4 LOW 3.87 3/4
CLOSE3.82 1/2 Up 5 1/2 CLOSE 3.96 1/4 Up 5 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP17+DEC17+DEC17
CK Low 0.60 4.43 174.20 0.70 4.66 183.55
CK High 0.65 4.48 176.17 0.75 4.71 185.52
CK Avg 0.61 -0.30 4.43 174.53 0.71 -0.24 4.67 183.88
Essex Cty 0.50 4.33 170.27 0.70 4.66 183.55
Mdsx Low 0.60 4.43 174.20 0.70 4.66 183.55
Mdsx High 0.60 4.43 174.20 0.70 4.66 183.55
Mdsx Avg 0.60 -0.31 4.43 174.20 0.70 -0.25 4.66 183.55
Hensall 0.60 4.43 174.20 0.70 4.66 183.55
Bruce 0.60 4.43 174.20 0.70 4.66 183.55
Putnam 0.60 4.43 174.20 0.70 4.66 183.55
Burford 0.60 4.43 174.20 0.75 4.71 185.52
Port Perry 0.85 4.68 184.05 0.80 4.76 187.49
Norfolk 0.70 4.53 178.14 0.80 4.76 187.49
Palmerston 0.60 4.43 174.20 0.70 4.66 183.55
Varna 0.60 4.43 174.20 0.70 4.66 183.55
Trenton 1.00 4.83 189.95 0.80 4.76 187.49
Winchester 1.08 4.91 193.10 1.10 5.06 199.30
North Gower 1.02 4.85 190.74 1.05 5.01 197.33
Huron FOB 0.82 4.65 182.87 0.75 4.71 185.52
Kent FOB 0.75 4.58 180.11 0.70 4.66 183.55
Lamb FOB 0.80 4.63 182.08 0.70 4.66 183.55
Mdsx FOB 0.70 0.70N/A N/A 4.53 178.14 0.75 4.71 185.52
FOB SW Que 1.39 5.22 205.31N/A
Track 1.03 4.85 190.94N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.00 0.90 0.90 4.86 191.43
Sarn-Eth 0.95 1.00 0.95N/A 4.78 187.98N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.20 1.05 5.01 197.33
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.05 5.01 197.33
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.20 1.20 5.16 203.24
W O Feed 1.23 5.06 199.16
US Rep 1.24 5.07 199.40
Toledo El. -0.10 3.72 146.62 -0.31 3.65 143.63
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A 0.80 4.76187 1/2
MID SD CRN 0.72 1/2 4.68 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.75 4.71 1/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.2593 down 0.0021
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
AUG17 HI 10.04 3/4 NOV17 HI 10.17
LOW 9.84 1/2 LOW 9.96 1/2
CLOSE9.99 3/4 Up 10 1/4 CLOSE 10.12 1/2 Up 10 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +AUG1+NOV1+NOV17
CK Low 1.90 11.90 437.161.75 11.88 436.33
CK High 2.05 12.05 442.671.85 11.98 440.01
CK Average 2.02 -0.4512.02 441.511.80 -0.6411.92 437.99
Essex Cty 2.05 12.05 442.671.75 11.88 436.33
Mdsx Low 2.01 12.01 441.201.77 11.90 437.07
Mdsx High 2.05 12.05 442.671.85 11.98 440.01
Mdsx Average 2.03 -0.4412.03 441.931.81 -0.6211.94 438.54
Hensall 2.05 12.05 442.671.85 11.98 440.01
Bruce 2.05 12.05 442.671.85 11.98 440.01
Putnam 2.05 12.05 442.671.85 11.98 440.01
Burford 2.08 12.08 443.771.84 11.97 439.64
Port Perry 2.01 12.01 441.201.77 11.90 437.07
Norfolk 2.05 12.05 442.671.85 11.98 440.01
Palmerston 2.05 12.05 442.671.75 11.88 436.33
Varna 2.05 12.05 442.671.85 11.98 440.01
Trenton 1.00 11.00 404.091.80 11.93 438.17
Winchester 2.10 12.10 444.512.25 12.38 454.70
North Gower 1.85 11.85 435.322.12 12.25 449.93
Huron FOB 2.20 12.20 448.182.00 12.13 445.52
Kent FOB 2.15 12.15 446.341.80 11.93 438.17
Lambton FOB 2.25 12.25 450.021.95 12.08 443.68
Middlesex FOB2.12 2.21 N/A N/A 12.12 445.241.94 12.07 443.31
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.50 2.60 N/A 2.36 12.50 459.202.45 12.58 462.05
N/A N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.09 12.09 444.142.30 12.43 456.54
Sarnia N/A 2.15 12.28 451.03
Toledo El. -0.20 9.80 359.95-0.64 9.48 348.49
Exchange rate was 1.2593 down 0.0021
Chicago wheat closed narrowly mixed.
SEP17 HI 5.09 JUL18 HI 5.66
LOW 5.00 LOW 5.58 1/2
CLOSE 5.03 Down 3/4 CLOSE 5.61 3/4 Up 1/2
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
SEP17 HI 7.93 3/4 SEP18 HI 6.76 1/2
LOW 7.70 LOW 6.63 3/4
CLOSE 7.75 1/2 Down 5 CLOSE 6.67 1/4 Down 8
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.12
CAD $/bu 5.95 5.95 5.93 7.87
CAD $/tonne 218.71 218.71 217.79 289.22
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.60 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
London 0.78 0.65 0.57 N/A 0.74 0.61 0.61 N/A
Hensall 0.80 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.95 N/A 0.65 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Bruce 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.25 0.95 0.75 0.65 0.60
Essex N/A N/A 0.46 N/A N/A N/A 0.53 N/A
Norwich 0.80 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.95 N/A 0.70 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.85 0.70 N/A N/A 0.70 0.85 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.80 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.95 N/A 0.65 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.60 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.60 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.70 0.60 0.25 N/A 0.75 0.65 0.60
Varna 0.90 0.70 0.60 N/A 0.95 0.75 0.70 N/A
Mitchell 0.80 0.60 0.60 N/A 0.95 0.70 0.70 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.49 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.84 0.81 0.05 N/A 0.80 0.80 0.27
W O Feed 1.34
TERMINAL
Sarnia 1.08 N/A 0.99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Prescott N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.17N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Toledo El. 4.88US 6.14CA 5.42US 6.81CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.87 0.81 0.81 0.33
CAD $/bu 6.49 6.43 6.43 7.00
CAD $/tonne 238.52 236.21 236.21 257.21
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 463.64
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 165.00
Wednesday, July 19 2017 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sept 3.82 ↓ 03 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 10.12 ↓ 25 cents
Wheat CBOT Sept 5.03 ↓ 32 cents
Wheat Minn. Sept 7.75 ↓ 06 cents
Wheat Kansas Sept 5.00 ↓ 44 cents
Chicago Oats Sept 2.93 ↑ 11 cents
Canadian $ Sept .7950 ↑ 1.00 points
Corn: Needless to say, it was a volatile week for the corn. We tried to negate the first significant downtrend line at the $4 area on the September chart, only to be turned back by the flood of sell orders. We reversed and plunged 30 cents per bushel on the futures contract within a two day period. We will not give up that quickly, as I’m sure there will be another attempt on the trend-line. What I am not willing to say is whether or not we will be successful. If we were successful, our next challenge would be an attempt at the all-important $4.40 level on the lead month futures contract, which could tip the scales and turn this market northward going forward.
Initial support on the September futures is seen at $3.65 on the September futures, while overhead resistance is still at $4, also on the September contract.
Short term indicators are neutral and the primary trend is still down.
SOYBEANS
This week has been exactly as forecast: a retreat from the stiff resistance as indicated in our reports at the $10.50 level on the November new crop contract. This corrective phase should continue a while longer and we should find at least temporary support at the $9.60 level on November. I do expect another upside move over the coming weeks, but we will have to wait and see how the chart patterns develop. The charts have a friendlier tone since we received the red buy signal on July 3, and I expect a run at the $10.50 level again, and possibly even the $10.80 level if we manage to stay above the $9.50 level on our daily closing prices.
Like the other crops, this one could be very sensitive to weather issues over the next few weeks.
Short term indicators are still positive, but for now the primary trend is still down.
WHEAT:
It was another corrective week, as the September Minneapolis lost another 6 cents overall since our last report. Prices retreat under low volume, but it is obvious that this is a wait and see situation as the weather driven crops needs more fuel to further advance prices. The main trend indicator is still on the red buy signal, although we have minor sell signals on the short term chart which is to be expected in a corrective mode. Support is seen at $7.45 on September futures while another support level which may be tested on a larger pullback would be the $7 mark.
Chicago futures closed the gap at the $5.25 level, and they are now at our $5 support as indicated in last week’s commentary. If this area cannot hold the stress, we will be looking at the next support line of $4.80-$4.90 and another at the $4.60 level on the September futures.
Our red buy signal is still intact on long term charts, and although we are losing most of the gains in July, the indicators are still suggesting we have a major trend change to the upside. Short term indicators are neutral but the main trend is still up.
Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, July 12 are as follows:
SWW @ $218.72/MT ($5.95/bu), HRW @ $218.72/MT ($5.95/bu),
HRS @ $289.01/MT ($7.87/bu), SRW @ $217.90/MT ($5.93/bu),
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
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