[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jul 13 15:15:32 EDT 2017
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, July 13
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2715 down 0.0008
Chicago corn closed lower.
SEP17 HI 3.85 1/4 DEC17 HI 3.98 1/2
LOW 3.68 1/2 LOW 3.81 3/4
CLOSE3.69 3/4 Down 15 3/4 CLOSE 3.83 Down 15 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP17+DEC17+DEC17
CK Low 0.60 4.30 169.19 0.70 4.53 178.34
CK High 0.65 4.35 171.15 0.75 4.58 180.31
CK Avg 0.62 -0.30 4.31 169.84 0.71 -0.26 4.54 178.67
Essex Cty 0.55 4.25 167.22 0.70 4.53 178.34
Mdsx Low 0.60 4.30 169.19 0.70 4.53 178.34
Mdsx High 0.60 4.30 169.19 0.70 4.53 178.34
Mdsx Avg 0.60 -0.32 4.30 169.19 0.70 -0.26 4.53 178.34
Hensall 0.63 4.32 170.17 0.73 4.56 179.32
Bruce 0.60 4.30 169.19 0.70 4.53 178.34
Putnam 0.60 4.30 169.19 0.70 4.53 178.34
Burford 0.60 4.30 169.19 0.80 4.63 182.28
Port Perry 0.85 4.55 179.03 0.80 4.63 182.28
Norfolk 0.70 4.40 173.12 0.80 4.63 182.28
Palmerston 0.65 4.35 171.15 0.70 4.53 178.34
Varna 0.65 4.35 171.15 0.75 4.58 180.31
Trenton 1.05 4.75 186.90 0.90 4.73 186.21
Winchester 1.07 4.77 187.69 1.07 4.90 192.90
North Gower 1.02 4.72 185.72 1.05 4.88 192.12
Huron FOB 0.85 4.55 179.03 0.77 4.60 181.09
Kent FOB 0.75 4.45 175.09 0.70 4.53 178.34
Lamb FOB 0.80 4.50 177.06 0.70 4.53 178.34
Mdsx FOB 0.75 0.80N/A N/A 4.45 175.09 0.75 4.58 180.31
FOB SW Que 1.30 5.00 196.74N/A
Track 1.13 4.82 189.85N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.05N/A 0.90 4.73 186.21
Sarn-Eth 0.95 1.00 0.95N/A 4.65 182.96N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
W O Feed 1.27 4.97 195.48
US Rep 1.41 5.11 201.07
Toledo El. -0.10 3.60 141.56 -0.32 3.51 138.28
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A 0.80 4.63182 2/7
MID SD CRN 0.72 1/2 4.55 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.75 4.58
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.2715 down 0.0008
Chicago soybeans closed lower.
AUG17 HI 10.15 3/4 NOV17 HI 10.29
LOW 9.74 1/2 LOW 9.86 1/2
CLOSE9.75 1/2 Down 45 1/4 CLOSE 9.87 1/2 Down 46 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +AUG1+NOV1+NOV17
CK Low 2.13 11.89 436.701.85 11.73 430.82
CK High 2.15 11.91 437.432.00 11.88 436.33
CK Average 2.15 -0.3911.90 437.311.94 -0.5811.81 433.94
Essex Cty 2.15 11.91 437.431.85 11.73 430.82
Mdsx Low 2.13 11.89 436.701.96 11.84 434.86
Mdsx High 2.20 11.96 439.272.00 11.88 436.33
Mdsx Average 2.17 -0.3811.92 437.991.98 -0.5411.86 435.60
Hensall 2.20 11.96 439.272.00 11.88 436.33
Bruce 2.20 11.96 439.272.00 11.88 436.33
Putnam 2.20 11.96 439.272.05 11.93 438.17
Burford 2.20 11.96 439.272.03 11.91 437.43
Port Perry 2.13 11.89 436.701.96 11.84 434.86
Norfolk 2.15 11.91 437.432.00 11.88 436.33
Palmerston 2.20 11.96 439.271.90 11.78 432.66
Varna 2.20 11.96 439.272.00 11.88 436.33
Trenton 2.20 11.96 439.272.05 11.93 438.17
Winchester 1.94 11.70 429.722.04 11.92 437.80
North Gower 2.03 11.79 433.022.07 11.95 438.90
Huron FOB 2.30 12.06 442.952.10 11.98 440.01
Kent FOB 2.25 12.01 441.111.95 11.83 434.49
Lambton FOB 2.35 12.11 444.782.10 11.98 440.01
Middlesex FOB2.24 2.30 N/A N/A 12.00 440.742.13 12.01 441.11
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.65 2.75 N/A 2.45 12.41 455.812.45 12.33 452.87
N/A N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.24 12.00 440.742.45 12.33 452.87
Sarnia N/A 2.26 12.14 445.88
Toledo El. -0.20 9.55 350.96-0.65 9.23 339.04
Exchange rate was 1.2715 down 0.0008
Chicago wheat closed lower to sharply lower.
SEP17 HI 5.35 JUL18 HI 5.88 1/2
LOW 5.09 1/4 LOW 5.67
CLOSE 5.11 3/4 Down 25 1/4 CLOSE 5.69 1/2 Down 21 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately to sharply lower.
SEP17 HI 7.84 SEP18 HI 6.75 1/4
LOW 7.46 LOW 6.63 1/2
CLOSE 7.49 1/2 Down 33 1/4 CLOSE 6.68 1/2 Down 9 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.01 1.01 0.98 -0.25
CAD $/bu 6.13 6.13 6.10 7.24
CAD $/tonne 225.06 225.06 224.13 266.06
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.65 N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A
London 0.86 0.61 0.61 N/A 0.88 0.75 0.75 N/A
Hensall 0.85 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.95 N/A 0.75 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Bruce 0.85 0.75 0.65 0.40 0.95 0.85 0.75 0.60
Essex N/A N/A 0.46 N/A N/A N/A 0.58 N/A
Norwich 0.85 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.95 N/A 0.75 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.85 0.90 N/A N/A 0.80 1.00 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.85 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.95 N/A 0.75 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.65 N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.65 N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.70 0.70 0.25 N/A 0.75 0.70 0.60
Varna 0.95 0.70 0.65 N/A 1.00 0.75 0.75 N/A
Mitchell 0.85 0.65 0.65 N/A 0.95 0.70 0.75 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.01 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.98 0.96 -0.26 N/A 0.86 0.86 0.35
W O Feed 1.34
TERMINAL
Sarnia 1.03 N/A 0.93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Prescott N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.26N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Toledo El. 4.97US 6.32CA 5.50US 6.98CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.97 0.90 0.90
CAD $/bu 6.66 6.60 6.60
CAD $/tonne 244.82 242.48 242.48
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 462.87
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 165.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for July 21, 2017
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, July 12 2017 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sept 3.85 ↓ 07 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 10.35 ↑ 45 cents
Wheat CBOT Sept 5.37 ↓ 13 cents
Wheat Minn. Sept 7.82 ↓ 38 cents
Wheat Kansas Sept 5.44 ↓ 25 cents
Chicago Oats Sept 2.82 ↓ 04 cents
Canadian $ Sept .7850 ↑ 1.30 points
Corn: This week, we will focus on the July 12 USDA report that was released on July 12.
Global carryout for the 2017/2018 corn is projected to be 2325 million bushels, up more than 200 million bushels since the June report. This was construed as bearish, as the September futures failed to close above our major trend line at the $4 level once again. The day charts also show a 5 point reverse wave, suggesting this is a corrective wave.
Initial support on the September futures is seen at $3.75 on the September futures, while overhead resistance is still at $4, also on the September contract.
Short term indicators are neutral and the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: As for the report numbers, the carryout for 2017/2018 crop year is estimated at 460 million bushels, compared to 495 million bushels shown in the June report.
As for the charts, we left the $9 support level last week, and we hit our resistance line at $10.50 area on the September all in one week (as indicated in last week’s commentary). We are now getting conflicting signals: a red short term buy signal, coupled with two gaps and a nose bump into our resistance line after the report. The red signal suggests higher prices in the near term, but it has yet to confirm a trend change. A close above the $10.75 level could do the job. Meanwhile, like the corn, we need to regroup before another assault ensues. Overhead resistance is still seen at that $10.50-$10.75 level on the September contract, while support is now at the $10 level and again at $9.60, all based on the November futures contract.
Like the other crops, this one could be very sensitive to weather issues over the next few weeks.
Short term indicators are still positive, but for now the primary trend is still down.
WHEAT:
Chicago: Old crop ending numbers increased by 23 million bushels to match June numbers, but the new crop production was down 64 million bushels. This again is termed bearish by the fundamentalists. Of course, the weather still has a say in this market going forward. As a believer in trends, I do believe that the unusual weather will not only continue but intensify over the next couple of years.
The September contract traded into the gap as we anticipated. If we close below the gap at $5.25, we will be looking at our first support level being tested at the $5 mark on the September futures.
Minneapolis was the front runner on the recent rally, and it should be the dollar leader on the correction as well. Last week, we pinned the target resistance at $8.75, and we reached $8.70 on September futures. Close enough. If this is indeed the corrective stage of our rally, our initial support at the $6.75-$7 price points on the September chart at this time. The trend is up in both markets, but we have to expect volatility going forward as this is a weather market.
Support on Minneapolis is seen at the $7.40 level, and again at the $7 level basis September.
All indicators are positive and the primary trend is up.
Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, July 12 are as follows:
SWW @ $237.07/MT ($6.45/bu), HRW @ $237.07/MT ($6.45/bu),
HRS @ $281.96/MT ($7.67/bu), SRW @ $236.14/MT ($6.43/bu),
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
Click on this link: farmmarketnews-unsubscribe at list.gfo.ca to unsubscribe from this report.
This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20170713/58885057/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: wheatcom.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 397866 bytes
Desc: wheatcom.pdf
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20170713/58885057/attachment-0002.pdf>
-------------- next part --------------
An embedded and charset-unspecified text was scrubbed...
Name: corn.txt
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20170713/58885057/attachment-0001.txt>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: grain.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 265346 bytes
Desc: grain.pdf
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20170713/58885057/attachment-0003.pdf>
More information about the Farmmarketnews
mailing list