[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Sep 29 15:44:23 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, September 29
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3101 down 0.0141
Chicago corn closed steady.
DEC16 HI 3.33 1/2 DEC16 HI 3.33 1/2
LOW 3.28 LOW 3.28
CLOSE3.29 1/4 Unchanged CLOSE 3.29 1/4 Unchanged
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC16+DEC16+MAR17
CK Low 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
CK High 1.00 4.29 168.99 1.00 4.29 168.99
CK Avg 0.96 -0.06 4.25 167.35 0.96 -0.06 4.25 167.35
Essex Cty 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Mdsx Low 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Mdsx High 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Mdsx Avg 0.95 -0.06 4.24 167.02 0.95 -0.07 4.24 167.02
Hensall 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Bruce 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Putnam 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Burford 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Port Perry 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Norfolk 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Palmerston 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Varna 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Trenton N/A 1.15 4.44 174.89
Winchester N/A 1.30 4.59 180.80
North Gower N/A 1.20 4.49 176.86
Huron FOB 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Kent FOB 0.95 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
Lamb FOB 0.90 4.19 165.05 0.90 4.19 165.05
Mdsx FOB 0.95N/A N/A N/A 4.24 167.02 0.95 4.24 167.02
FOB SW Que 1.48 4.77 187.89N/A
Track 1.35 4.64 182.77N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.15 1.15 1.20 1.15 4.44 174.89
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A 1.06 1.09 1.20 1.09 4.38 172.53
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.24 1.14 1.32 1.14 4.43 174.50
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.24 1.33 1.24 4.53 178.44
W O Feed 1.37 4.66 183.63
US Rep 1.50 4.79 188.67
Toledo El. -0.26 3.03 119.27 -0.33 2.96 116.68
MID SD CRN 0.97 1/2 4.26 3/4
HI SD CRN 1.00 4.29 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3101 down 0.0141
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV16 HI 9.57 1/4 NOV17 HI 9.55
LOW 9.46 LOW 9.48
CLOSE9.50 1/4 Up 4 3/4 CLOSE 9.51 1/4 Up 3 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+JAN17
CK Low 2.47 11.97 439.912.07 11.58 425.58
CK High 2.60 12.10 444.692.25 11.76 432.20
CK Average 2.53 -0.3512.03 442.062.14 -0.6511.65 428.03
Essex Cty 2.55 12.05 442.852.15 11.66 428.52
Mdsx Low 2.45 11.95 439.182.05 11.56 424.85
Mdsx High 2.50 12.00 441.022.10 11.61 426.69
Mdsx Average 2.48 -0.3911.98 440.102.08 -0.7011.59 425.77
Hensall 2.53 12.03 441.932.10 11.61 426.69
Bruce 2.50 12.00 441.022.10 11.61 426.69
Putnam 2.65 12.15 446.532.15 11.66 428.52
Burford 2.51 12.01 441.382.11 11.62 427.05
Port Perry 2.45 11.95 439.182.05 11.56 424.85
Norfolk 2.55 12.05 442.852.10 11.61 426.69
Palmerston 2.55 12.05 442.852.15 11.66 428.52
Varna 2.55 12.05 442.852.10 11.61 426.69
Trenton 2.68 12.18 447.632.15 11.66 428.52
Winchester 2.57 12.07 443.592.11 11.62 427.05
North Gower 2.64 12.14 446.162.35 11.86 435.87
Huron FOB 2.65 12.15 446.532.20 11.71 430.36
Kent FOB 2.60 12.10 444.692.10 11.61 426.69
Lambton FOB 2.60 12.10 444.692.35 11.86 435.87
Middlesex FOB2.62 2.62 2.68 N/A 12.12 445.432.22 11.73 431.10
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.98 2.98 3.05 N/A 12.48 458.65 N/A
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.93 12.43 456.822.55 12.06 443.22
Toledo El. -0.42 9.08 333.71-0.33 9.18 337.45
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3101 down 0.0141
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC16 HI 4.06 3/4 JUL17 HI 4.53
LOW 3.97 3/4 LOW 4.44 1/4
CLOSE 3.99 Down 4 1/4 CLOSE 4.46 1/4 Down 3 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC16 HI 5.14 3/4 SEP17 HI 5.46
LOW 5.07 1/2 LOW 5.40
CLOSE 5.09 3/4 Up 1 1/4 CLOSE 5.42 Up 1 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.53 0.46 0.60 0.29
CAD $/bu 4.52 4.45 4.59 5.38
CAD $/tonne 166.10 163.68 168.51 197.84
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A 0.40 0.45 N/A
London 0.13 0.16 0.13 N/A 0.53 0.40 0.47 N/A
Hensall 0.15 N/A 0.15 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.45 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.39 N/A
Norwich 0.15 N/A 0.15 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.45 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.20 0.20 N/A N/A 0.40 0.45 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.15 N/A 0.15 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.45 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.15 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.21 0.15 0.30 N/A 0.40 0.35 0.40
Varna 0.20 0.20 0.20 N/A 0.55 0.45 0.45 N/A
Mitchell 0.15 0.15 0.15 N/A 0.55 0.40 0.45 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.06 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.36 0.49 0.16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A N/A 0.60 0.48 N/A N/A 0.60 0.31
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.25 N/A N/A N/A 1.40 N/A
Toledo El. 3.85US 5.06CA 4.26US 5.60CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.75 0.68 0.68 0.52
CAD $/bu 5.21 5.14 5.14 5.94
CAD $/tonne 191.42 189.01 189.01 218.36
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 470.58
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 185.00 - 190.00
-----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for September 28, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, September 28, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Dec
3.29
↓
11
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov
9.45
↓
30
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec
4.03
↓
05
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec
5.09
↑
13
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec
4.21
↓
01
cents
Chicago Oats
Dec
1.74
↓
02
cents
Canadian $
Dec
.7637
↑
0.31
points
CORN: With approximately 15% of harvest complete as of September 28, sellers of corn are reluctant to apply more selling pressure on the current crop, as they want to be comfortable that the this crop can be fully harvested without issues, considering the wetter than usual weather. For the time being, our Labour day low of $3.01 on the September contract is still this season’s low and at this point we are north of that level by some 30 cents per bushel on the December contract. As harvest progresses, we could see another test of that level as the December contract gets closer to expiration or we approach first notice day, at the end of November. Short term support is seen at $3.15 - $3.25 on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at the $3.40 - $3.60 level on the lead month. The short term indicators are positive for now, but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: Soybeans, like corn, are well underway in harvesting a bumper crop. There is a chance we could see some revisions in the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) numbers in October as we see some actual yields. Although we seem to have found good support in the $9.25 range for the past two months, I am worried about a red sell signal we received about a week ago. This signal suggests a re-test of the $8.50 level is very possible during the midst of harvest. These red signals are usually more accurate than my day to day signals, but for the time being, we continue to see support at $9.25 - $9.50, and resistance at $10.50 based on the November contract. The main trend is still down.
WHEAT: Agricorp reports that winter wheat yields covered by Production Insurance averaged 96 bushels per acre, a record high. Friday, September 30 the USDA will release its quarterly stocks report. The biggest hope we have for a decent rally in the wheat prices is currently linked to any surprises in the corn harvest. With wet weather still an issue at harvest, we could see some disease issues with the corn crop which could benefit the feed side of the wheat markets. We have been in tight trading since the labour day lows of $3.60 on the September contract. Meanwhile, there are a series of overhead resistance points about every 20 cents higher, starting at $4.20 on the December chart. Although we are showing oversold condition but the main trend is still down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on September 28, 2016
SWW @ $167.48MT ($4.56/bu), HRW @ $165.07/MT ($4.49/bu),
HRS @ $196.60/MT ($5.35/bu), SRW @ $169.89/MT ($4.62/bu).
---------
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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