[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Sep 22 15:35:33 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, September 22
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3039 down 0.0147
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
DEC16 HI 3.41 1/2 DEC16 HI 3.41 1/2
LOW 3.34 3/4 LOW 3.34 3/4
CLOSE3.36 3/4 Down 3 1/4 CLOSE 3.36 3/4 Down 3 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC16+DEC16+MAR17
CK Low 0.95 4.32 169.97 0.85 4.22 166.04
CK High 1.10 4.47 175.88 0.95 4.32 169.97
CK Avg 1.03 0.00 4.39 172.93 0.93 -0.08 4.29 168.99
Essex Cty 1.10 4.47 175.88 0.85 4.22 166.04
Mdsx Low 1.00 4.37 171.94 0.95 4.32 169.97
Mdsx High 1.00 4.37 171.94 0.95 4.32 169.97
Mdsx Avg 1.00 -0.02 4.37 171.94 0.95 -0.06 4.32 169.97
Hensall 1.00 4.37 171.94 0.95 4.32 169.97
Bruce 1.00 4.37 171.94 0.95 4.32 169.97
Putnam 0.95 4.32 169.97 0.90 4.27 168.00
Burford 1.00 4.37 171.94 0.95 4.32 169.97
Port Perry 1.00 4.37 171.94 0.95 4.32 169.97
Norfolk 0.95 4.32 169.97 0.90 4.27 168.00
Palmerston 1.10 4.47 175.88 0.85 4.22 166.04
Varna 1.00 4.37 171.94 0.95 4.32 169.97
Trenton 1.10 4.47 175.88 1.00 4.37 171.94
Winchester N/A 1.20 4.57 179.81
North Gower 0.92 4.29 168.79 1.13 4.50 177.06
Huron FOB 1.00 4.37 171.94 0.95 4.32 169.97
Kent FOB 0.95 4.32 169.97 0.95 4.32 169.97
Lamb FOB 1.00 4.37 171.94 0.90 4.27 168.00
Mdsx FOB 0.95N/A N/A N/A 4.32 169.97 0.95 4.32 169.97
FOB SW Que 1.49 4.86 191.23N/A
Track 1.35 4.72 185.72N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 4.62 181.78
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.15 1.15 1.20 1.15 4.52 177.85
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.20 N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.24 1.14 1.32 1.14 4.51 177.45
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.24 1.33 1.24 4.61 181.39
W O Feed 1.40 4.77 187.85
US Rep 1.48 4.85 190.84
Toledo El. -0.33 3.04 119.72 -0.26 3.11 122.30
MID SD CRN 0.90 1 4.26 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.95 4.31 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3039 down 0.0147
Chicago soybeans closed steady to slightly higher.
NOV16 HI 9.83 1/2 NOV17 HI 9.71
LOW 9.70 1/4 LOW 9.59 3/4
CLOSE9.76 1/2 Up 1 CLOSE 9.64 1/2 Unchanged
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+JAN17
CK Low 2.49 12.26 450.292.05 11.70 429.72
CK High 2.60 12.37 454.342.10 11.75 431.55
CK Average 2.54 -0.3412.31 452.132.07 -0.6611.72 430.45
Essex Cty 2.55 12.32 452.502.10 11.75 431.55
Mdsx Low 2.47 12.24 449.562.05 11.70 429.72
Mdsx High 2.55 12.32 452.502.05 11.70 429.72
Mdsx Average 2.51 -0.3612.28 451.032.05 -0.6811.70 429.72
Hensall 2.55 12.32 452.502.05 11.70 429.72
Bruce 2.55 12.32 452.502.05 11.70 429.72
Putnam 2.55 12.32 452.502.05 11.70 429.72
Burford 2.53 12.30 451.762.11 11.76 431.92
Port Perry 2.47 12.24 449.562.05 11.70 429.72
Norfolk 2.55 12.32 452.502.05 11.70 429.72
Palmerston 2.55 12.32 452.502.10 11.75 431.55
Varna 2.55 12.32 452.502.05 11.70 429.72
Trenton 2.60 12.37 454.342.15 11.80 433.39
Winchester 2.54 12.31 452.132.09 11.74 431.19
North Gower 2.66 12.43 456.542.24 11.89 436.70
Huron FOB 2.65 12.42 456.172.15 11.80 433.39
Kent FOB 2.60 12.37 454.342.05 11.70 429.72
Lambton FOB 2.70 12.47 458.012.30 11.95 438.90
Middlesex FOB2.71 2.64 2.71 N/A 12.48 458.382.22 11.87 435.96
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.00 3.00 3.07 N/A 12.77 469.03 N/A
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 3.07 12.84 471.612.46 12.11 444.78
Toledo El. -0.42 9.35 343.45-0.33 9.32 342.41
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3039 down 0.0147
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC16 HI 4.11 3/4 JUL17 HI 4.54 3/4
LOW 4.04 1/4 LOW 4.48 1/4
CLOSE 4.05 1/2 Down 2 1/4 CLOSE 4.50 Down 1 1/4
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately higher.
DEC16 HI 5.01 3/4 SEP17 HI 5.36
LOW 4.93 LOW 5.30 1/4
CLOSE 5.01 1/4 Up 6 1/2 CLOSE 5.36 Up 5 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.52 0.46 0.59 0.23
CAD $/bu 4.58 4.51 4.64 5.24
CAD $/tonne 168.16 165.76 170.56 192.51
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A 0.40 0.45 N/A
London 0.15 0.15 0.12 N/A 0.51 0.38 0.45 N/A
Hensall 0.15 N/A 0.15 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.45 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.38 N/A
Norwich 0.15 N/A 0.15 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.45 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.17 0.17 N/A N/A 0.40 0.45 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.15 N/A 0.15 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.45 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.15 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.21 0.15 0.30 N/A 0.40 0.35 0.40
Varna 0.20 0.15 0.15 N/A 0.55 0.45 0.45 N/A
Mitchell 0.15 0.15 0.15 N/A 0.55 0.40 0.45 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.21 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.39 0.53 0.14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.60 0.60 0.38 N/A 0.60 0.60 0.45
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.24 N/A N/A N/A 1.37 N/A
Toledo El. 3.79US 4.94CA 4.30US 5.61CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.72 0.65 0.65 0.46
CAD $/bu 5.22 5.15 5.15 5.82
CAD $/tonne 191.72 189.33 189.33 213.77
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 479.40
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 180.00 - 185.00
-----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for Sept. 21, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, September 21, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Dec
3.40
↑
18
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov
9.75
↑
30
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec
4.08
↑
05
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec
4.95
↑
03
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec
4.22
↑
04
cents
Chicago Oats
Dec
1.76
↑
02
cents
Canadian $
Dec
.7607
↑
0.53
points
CORN: Even though we moved sideways once again on the December corn futures, the charts are building an impressive base at these levels. As you recall, back in August, we spoke about the possibility of the Labour Day weekend being a potential bottom when we look back at it. So far, this seems to be a possibility. As of September 21, the December contract is trading at $3.40 with a low from September 1 of $3.15. This is not implying that the September 1 low is set in stone, but rather that it could very well be a bottom but we will need to take another look at the chart in October when harvest is in full swing. Meanwhile, the patterns are telling us that we are in a consolidation range of $3.15 - $3.40 and if we could manage to break above the $3.40 on a close, we have an upside target of $3.60. Of course, the harvest pressure could insist on re-testing that $3.15 - $3.25 support level, but we will need to see some updated numbers from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) first. Short term support is seen at $3.15 - $3.25 on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at the $3.40 - $3.60 level on the lead month. The short term indicators are positive for now, but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: Soybeans, like corn, are forming an interesting support zone. The short term indicators are positive, while the longer term signals suggest a close below the $9.25 level could carry us back into the $8.50 range. As we mentioned a few weeks ago, it seems soybeans are quite content trading either side of the $10 mark. Good support is seen at the $9.25 - $9.50 level and initial resistance is at the $10.50 level. This confines the trading range to about $1 until we get something to disturb this balance. Soybeans are already started harvest and the October report could alter the yields and quality and provide us some clues to future price direction. We continue to see support at $9.25 - $9.50, while resistance is at $10.50 based on the lead contract. The main trend is still down.
WHEAT: With the September wheat contract going off the board last week, we now have a buy signal on the December wheat. This was initiated by the 20 cent differential in the September/December spread. As a technical trader, however, this is possibly setting up an opportunity for a move back into that gap between $3.85 and $3.93 based on the December chart. If we manage to trade back into that space, and hold, we may indeed have a red buy signal. Meanwhile there are a series of overhead resistance points about every 20 cents higher, starting at $4.20 on the December chart. Short term indicators are turning positive, but the main trend is still down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on September 21, 2016
SWW @ $170.51MT ($4.64/bu), HRW @ $168.10/MT ($4.57/bu),
HRS @ $198.80/MT ($5.19/bu), SRW @ $172.93/MT ($4.71/bu).
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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