[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Oct 27 15:43:20 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, October 27
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3386 up 0.0026
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
DEC16 HI 3.58 1/2 DEC17 HI 3.93 3/4
LOW 3.52 1/4 LOW 3.88 3/4
CLOSE3.57 1/2 Up 3 1/2 CLOSE 3.93 Up 2 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC16+MAR17+MAR17
CK Low 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.70 4.63 182.28
CK High 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.75 4.68 184.24
CK Avg 0.90 -0.23 4.48 176.17 0.74 -0.43 4.67 183.92
Essex Cty 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.70 4.63 182.28
Mdsx Low 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.75 4.68 184.24
Mdsx High 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.75 4.68 184.24
Mdsx Avg 0.90 -0.23 4.48 176.17 0.75 -0.42 4.68 184.24
Hensall 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.75 4.68 184.24
Bruce 0.95 4.53 178.14 0.75 4.68 184.24
Putnam 0.95 4.53 178.14 0.75 4.68 184.24
Burford 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.75 4.68 184.24
Port Perry 1.10 4.68 184.05 0.75 4.68 184.24
Norfolk 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.75 4.68 184.24
Palmerston 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.70 4.63 182.28
Varna 0.95 4.53 178.14 0.75 4.68 184.24
Trenton 1.30 4.88 191.92 0.85 4.78 188.18
Winchester 1.30 4.88 191.92 1.00 4.93 194.09
North Gower 1.20 4.78 187.98 0.97 4.90 192.90
Huron FOB 0.92 4.50 176.96 0.77 4.70 185.03
Kent FOB 0.95 4.53 178.14 0.75 4.68 184.24
Lamb FOB 0.90 4.48 176.17 0.75 4.68 184.24
Mdsx FOB 0.95 0.95 0.95N/A 4.53 178.14 0.75 4.68 184.24
FOB SW Que 1.10 4.68 184.05N/A
Track 1.26 4.84 190.35N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A 1.10 1.15 1.25 0.90 4.83 190.15
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.90 4.83 190.15
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.10 1.15N/A N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A 0.92N/A N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.30N/A N/A 1.33 4.88 191.92N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.30 1.33N/A 0.98 4.91 193.30
W O Feed 1.40 4.98 195.86
US Rep 1.66 5.24 206.09
Toledo El. -0.35 3.23 127.03 -0.33 3.60 141.58
MID SD CRN 0.90 4.47 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.90 4.47 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3386 up 0.0026
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.
NOV16 HI 10.20 NOV17 HI 10.09 1/4
LOW 10.02 3/4 LOW 9.96 3/4
CLOSE10.14 1/4 Up 4 1/4 CLOSE 10.03 1/2 Down 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN17
CK Low 2.40 12.54 460.862.45 12.49 458.75
CK High 2.46 12.60 463.062.55 12.59 462.42
CK Average 2.44 -0.7512.59 462.452.50 -0.6512.53 460.46
Essex Cty 2.46 12.60 463.062.50 12.54 460.58
Mdsx Low 2.43 12.57 461.962.46 12.50 459.11
Mdsx High 2.46 12.60 463.062.50 12.54 460.58
Mdsx Average 2.45 -0.7412.59 462.512.48 -0.6612.52 459.85
Hensall 2.46 12.60 463.062.50 12.54 460.58
Bruce 2.46 12.60 463.062.50 12.54 460.58
Putnam 2.40 12.54 460.862.40 12.44 456.91
Burford 2.49 12.63 464.162.52 12.56 461.32
Port Perry 2.40 12.54 460.862.43 12.47 458.01
Norfolk 2.45 12.59 462.702.50 12.54 460.58
Palmerston 2.46 12.60 463.062.50 12.54 460.58
Varna 2.40 12.54 460.862.40 12.44 456.91
Trenton 2.60 12.74 468.212.45 12.49 458.75
Winchester 2.95 13.09 481.072.46 12.50 459.11
North Gower 2.76 12.90 474.092.60 12.64 464.26
Huron FOB 2.60 12.74 468.212.65 12.69 466.09
Kent FOB 2.45 12.59 462.702.50 12.54 460.58
Lambton FOB 2.50 12.64 464.532.75 12.79 469.77
Middlesex FOB2.60 2.73 2.83 N/A 12.74 468.212.70 12.74 467.93
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.95 3.14 3.18 3.24 13.09 481.073.06 13.10 481.16
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.78 12.92 474.823.00 13.04 478.95
Toledo El. -0.56 9.58 352.00-0.33 9.70 356.46
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3386 up 0.0026
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC16 HI 4.18 3/4 JUL17 HI 4.66 1/4
LOW 4.11 1/4 LOW 4.59 1/2
CLOSE 4.14 1/2 Up 3 CLOSE 4.62 1/2 Up 2
Minni wheat closed steady to slightly higher.
DEC16 HI 5.27 1/2 SEP17 HI 5.53 3/4
LOW 5.24 1/4 LOW 5.51
CLOSE 5.25 1/2 Unchanged CLOSE 5.52 1/2 Up 1
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.67 0.60 0.67 0.44
CAD $/bu 4.82 4.75 4.82 5.70
CAD $/tonne 176.93 174.47 176.93 209.41
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A 0.55 0.55 N/A
London 0.39 0.28 0.39 N/A 0.67 0.54 0.61 N/A
Hensall 0.35 N/A 0.35 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.55 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Bruce 0.30 0.10 0.30 0.30 0.60 0.35 0.50 0.45
Essex N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.41 N/A
Norwich 0.35 N/A 0.35 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.55 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.35 0.35 N/A N/A 0.50 0.55 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.35 N/A 0.35 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.55 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.55 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.55 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.33 0.25 0.30 N/A 0.40 0.45 0.40
Varna 0.45 0.45 0.45 N/A 0.60 0.55 0.55 N/A
Mitchell 0.35 0.35 0.35 N/A 0.65 0.50 0.55 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.28 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.48 0.55 0.23 N/A 0.86 0.86 0.54
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.93 0.69 0.63 N/A 0.60 0.85 0.76
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.41 N/A N/A N/A 1.55 N/A
Toledo El. 4.04US 5.40CA 4.43US 5.91CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.88 0.81 0.81 0.65
CAD $/bu 5.51 5.44 5.44 6.17
CAD $/tonne 202.28 199.83 199.83 226.80
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 503.32
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 175.00 - 190.00
----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 26, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, October 26, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Dec
3.54
↓
03
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov
10.10
↑
31
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec
4.11
↓
09
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec
5.25
↓
06
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec
4.17
↓
08
cents
Chicago Oats
Dec
2.10
↑
01
cents
Canadian $
Dec
.7490
↓
1.30
points
CORN: Corn moved sideways the week of October 24, however, we still expect to see a move towards the $3.70 - $3.80 level on the December contract. Seasonally, we usually see firm prices into the first part of November, so I still expect to reach our target of $3.70 before we see softer prices going into December. A sloping uptrend support line shows good support at the $3.30 level on December while our overhead resistance is a wide band from the $3.60 - $3.80 range. Our red buy signal from September 12 is still intact, but we have yet to receive one on the weekly chart. The short term indicators are still positive, but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: Soybeans continued their upward march and we have now reached and exceeded our overhead resistance of $10 on the November contract. We also received a red buy signal but only on the daily chart. This indicates to me that we could actually see more upside, but it is only a minor buy signal in a downtrend. The first notice day for the November contract is Tuesday, November 1, so we will be switching to the January contract beginning Friday, October 28. Meanwhile, support is still seen at the $9.25 level, and overhead resistance is now our next target of $10.35 on the November contract possibly before that contract expires. Even though we have a minor buy signal, we must keep in mind that the intermediate and primary trends are still down.
WHEAT: The wall of resistance at last week’s target of $4.25 was exactly on cue. After hitting $4.27 and closing at $4.21 the retreat was underway as the price of the December contract in Chicago slipped back to the $4 floor once again. It seems almost certain that prices will not stray too far to the upside in the next couple of weeks as we will need to firmly penetrate and close above the $4.25 ceiling before our next major obstacle of $4.40 is even in our sights. If we reach the $4.40 on the December contract it will be a good level for those of you who are looking at a place to sell some wheat. Meanwhile, we have mixed signals once again as our minor trend is up while our intermediate and primary trends are still down. Support is seen at the $4 level on the lead month contract with major support at $3.60 on the December Chicago contract.
2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of close on October 26, 2016
SWW @ $175.24MT ($4.77/bu), HRW @ $172.78/MT ($4.70/bu),
HRS @ $209.16/MT ($5.69/bu), SRW @ $175.24/MT ($4.77/bu).
----
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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