[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Oct 6 15:46:03 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, October 6
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.321 up 0.0032
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately lower.
DEC16 HI 3.47 3/4 DEC17 HI 3.87
LOW 3.38 1/2 LOW 3.78 1/4
CLOSE3.40 1/2 Down 7 1/4 CLOSE 3.80 Down 6 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC16+MAR17+MAR17
CK Low 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.60 4.40 173.22
CK High 1.00 4.41 173.42 0.65 4.45 175.19
CK Avg 0.96 -0.10 4.36 171.78 0.64 -0.43 4.44 174.86
Essex Cty 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
Mdsx Low 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
Mdsx High 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
Mdsx Avg 0.95 -0.11 4.36 171.45 0.65 -0.42 4.45 175.19
Hensall 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
Bruce 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
Putnam 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
Burford 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
Port Perry 1.00 4.41 173.42 0.70 4.50 177.16
Norfolk 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
Palmerston 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
Varna 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
Trenton 1.20 4.61 181.29 0.80 4.60 181.09
Winchester 1.30 4.71 185.23 1.01 4.81 189.36
North Gower 1.20 4.61 181.29 0.80 4.60 181.09
Huron FOB 1.00 4.41 173.42 0.70 4.50 177.16
Kent FOB 1.00 4.41 173.42 0.65 4.45 175.19
Lamb FOB 0.95 4.36 171.45 0.70 4.50 177.16
Mdsx FOB 0.95 0.95 0.95N/A 4.36 171.45 0.65 4.45 175.19
FOB SW Que 1.30 4.71 185.23N/A
Track 1.34 4.74 186.61N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.20 4.56 179.32 0.80 4.60 181.09
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.20 0.80 4.60 181.09
Sarn-Eth 1.15 1.15 1.20N/A 4.56 179.32N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.20 1.24 0.83 4.63 182.28
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.24 1.33N/A 0.93 4.73 186.21
W O Feed 1.36 4.77 187.67
US Rep 1.56 4.97 195.46
Toledo El. -0.33 3.07 121.04 -0.33 3.47 136.62
MID SD CRN 0.97 1/2 4.38
HI SD CRN 1.00 4.40 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.321 up 0.0032
Chicago soybeans closed narrowly mixed.
NOV16 HI 9.59 3/4 NOV17 HI 9.63 3/4
LOW 9.47 1/4 LOW 9.54
CLOSE9.58 1/2 Up 1 3/4 CLOSE 9.61 3/4 Down 1 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN17
CK Low 2.50 12.09 444.052.18 11.80 433.48
CK High 2.60 12.19 447.722.25 11.87 436.06
CK Average 2.55 -0.4112.14 445.882.21 -0.6411.83 434.71
Essex Cty 2.60 12.19 447.722.25 11.87 436.06
Mdsx Low 2.53 12.12 445.152.16 11.78 432.75
Mdsx High 2.55 12.14 445.882.20 11.82 434.22
Mdsx Average 2.54 -0.4112.13 445.522.18 -0.6711.80 433.48
Hensall 2.55 12.14 445.882.20 11.82 434.22
Bruce 2.55 12.14 445.882.20 11.82 434.22
Putnam 2.55 12.14 445.882.20 11.82 434.22
Burford 2.59 12.18 447.352.22 11.84 434.95
Port Perry 2.53 12.12 445.152.16 11.78 432.75
Norfolk 2.55 12.14 445.882.20 11.82 434.22
Palmerston 2.65 12.24 449.562.25 11.87 436.06
Varna 2.55 12.14 445.882.20 11.82 434.22
Trenton 2.70 12.29 451.402.20 11.82 434.22
Winchester 2.69 12.28 451.032.25 11.87 436.06
North Gower 2.69 12.28 451.032.36 11.98 440.10
Huron FOB 2.65 12.24 449.562.30 11.92 437.89
Kent FOB 2.65 12.24 449.562.20 11.82 434.22
Lambton FOB 2.70 12.29 451.402.45 12.07 443.40
Middlesex FOB2.70 2.70 2.80 N/A 12.29 451.402.33 11.95 439.00
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.99 3.11 3.20 N/A 12.58 462.05 N/A
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.97 12.56 461.322.68 12.30 451.86
Toledo El. -0.42 9.16 336.64-0.33 9.29 341.27
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.321 up 0.0032
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC16 HI 4.09 1/2 JUL17 HI 4.54
LOW 3.93 1/2 LOW 4.39 1/2
CLOSE 3.95 3/4 Down 9 1/4 CLOSE 4.42 3/4 Down 8
Minni wheat closed narrowly mixed.
DEC16 HI 5.29 1/4 SEP17 HI 5.47 1/4
LOW 5.17 LOW 5.41
CLOSE 5.24 3/4 Up 1/4 CLOSE 5.47 1/4 Down 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.55 0.48 0.55 0.37
CAD $/bu 4.50 4.44 4.50 5.62
CAD $/tonne 165.52 163.09 165.52 206.32
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A 0.40 0.45 N/A
London 0.17 0.20 0.17 N/A 0.58 0.44 0.51 N/A
Hensall 0.20 N/A 0.25 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.45 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Norwich 0.20 N/A 0.25 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.45 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.20 0.25 N/A N/A 0.40 0.45 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.20 N/A 0.25 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.45 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.23 0.25 0.30 N/A 0.40 0.45 0.40
Varna 0.25 0.25 0.25 N/A 0.55 0.45 0.45 N/A
Mitchell 0.20 0.20 0.25 N/A 0.55 0.40 0.45 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.07 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.39 0.52 0.24 N/A 0.74 0.74 0.44
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A N/A 0.60 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.27 N/A N/A N/A 1.41 N/A
Toledo El. 3.82US 5.05CA 4.23US 5.57CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.75 0.68 0.68 0.56
CAD $/bu 5.18 5.11 5.11 6.03
CAD $/tonne 190.27 187.85 187.85 221.52
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 467.50
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 195.00 - 200.00
----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 5, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, October 5, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Dec
3.48
↑
19
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov
9.57
↑
12
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec
4.05
↑
02
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec
5.25
↑
16
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec
4.15
↓
06
cents
Chicago Oats
Dec
1.84
↑
10
cents
Canadian $
Dec
.7596
↓
0.40
points
CORN: Looking back at the Labour Day weekend low, we may be looking at the bottom for 2016. We are now approaching the $3.50 resistance level on the December corn contract and if we manage to close above that level, I feel we will see some fund short covering activity, which could catapult this market towards the $3.70 - $3.80 level. At this stage, it is too early to call a bottom; but it’s looking more and more likely that we will be focusing on the $3.01 September lows as the major support and a possible bottom.
Short term support is seen at $3.25 on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at $3.50 and again at the $3.70- $3.80 level on the lead month. The short term indicators are still positive, but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: Soybeans are producing a pennant formation on our charts with support at the $9.25 level on the November contract and a sloping trend-line showing overhead resistance around the magical $10 level on the lead month. The charts on the soybeans are not as encouraging as the spring wheat or the corn. If harvest numbers show yield surprises and the $9.25 support is negated, we could see lower prices before the November contract expires. Although we seem to have found good support in the $9.25 range for the past two months, we have a red sell signal from last week that is of concern. Meanwhile, support is still seen at the $9.25 level and overhead resistance is seen at the $10 mark on November.
The main trend is still down.
WHEAT: Our Minneapolis wheat contract has performed very well over the past few weeks and as we received a red buy signal, September 29 on the spring wheat contract. We are currently trading 45 cents per bushel higher than our $4.80 Labour Day low as we closed out today at $5.25 on the Minneapolis December chart. According to the charts, there is initial resistance at just above here at the $5.35 level on the December Minneapolis contract; but if we manage to close above that level we should challenge the $5.45 - $5.50. The Chicago wheat has not fared as well, but we are finally moving back above the $4 mark and at some point we may actually see a good rally from the funds covering their short positions. The Chicago wheat will eventually follow the Minneapolis if this rally is sustained. Like the other grains, the Labour Day weekend is proving to be the bottom in the wheat so far, but to confirm this, we need to see those levels hold on any kind of a re-test in the coming weeks.
Support is seen at $3.60 - $3.80 on the Chicago contract, while serious overhead resistance is at $4.25 and again at $4.50 based on the December contract. The main trend is still down.
2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of close on October 5, 2016
SWW @ $169.31MT ($4.61/bu), HRW @ $166.89/MT ($4.54/bu),
HRS @ $205.34/MT ($5.59/bu), SRW @ $169.31/MT ($4.61/bu).
----
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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