[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed May 18 15:32:53 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, May 18
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2928 up 0.0043
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
JUL16 HI 4.00 1/2 DEC16 HI 4.06 3/4
LOW 3.94 LOW 4.00 3/4
CLOSE3.99 1/2 Up 2 1/2 CLOSE 4.06 Up 2 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL16+SEP16+SEP16
CK Low 0.70 4.70 184.83 0.65 4.71 185.42
CK High 0.75 4.75 186.80 0.65 4.71 185.42
CK Avg 0.73 -0.36 4.73 186.15 0.65 -0.44 4.71 185.42
Essex Cty 0.75 4.75 186.80 0.65 4.71 185.42
Mdsx Low 0.70 4.70 184.83 0.65 4.71 185.42
Mdsx High 0.75 4.75 186.80 0.65 4.71 185.42
Mdsx Avg 0.73 -0.36 4.72 185.82 0.65 -0.44 4.71 185.42
Hensall 0.74 4.74 186.41 0.65 4.71 185.42
Bruce 0.70 4.70 184.83 0.65 4.71 185.42
Putnam 0.75 4.75 186.80 0.65 4.71 185.42
Burford 0.75 4.75 186.80 0.65 4.71 185.42
Port Perry 0.75 4.75 186.80 0.65 4.71 185.42
Norfolk 0.75 4.75 186.80 0.65 4.71 185.42
Palmerston 0.75 4.75 186.80 0.65 4.71 185.42
Varna 0.80 4.80 188.77 0.65 4.71 185.42
Trenton 0.85 4.85 190.74 0.75 4.81 189.36
Winchester 0.95 4.95 194.68 0.85 4.91 193.30
North Gower 0.85 4.85 190.74 0.80 4.86 191.33
Huron FOB 0.92 4.92 193.49 0.70 4.76 187.39
Kent FOB 0.95 4.95 194.68 0.75 4.81 189.36
Lamb FOB 0.95 4.95 194.68 0.65 4.71 185.42
Mdsx FOB 0.95 0.95N/A N/A 4.95 194.68 0.65 4.71 185.42
FOB SW Que 1.20 5.20 204.52N/A
Track 1.26 5.26 206.88N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 1.10 1.15 1.15 1.15 5.10 200.58 0.90 4.96 195.27
Sarn-Eth 1.20 1.20 1.20N/A 5.20 204.52N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 5.01 197.23
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.30 0.95 5.01 197.23
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.40 1.30 1.30 1.30 5.40 212.39N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.30 0.95 5.01 197.23
W O Feed 1.35 5.34 210.27
US Rep 1.47 5.47 215.15
Toledo El. -0.01 3.98 156.76 -0.26 3.80 149.60
MID SD CRN 0.65 4.71
HI SD CRN 0.65 4.71
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2928 up 0.0043
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
JUL16 HI 10.88 NOV16 HI 10.75
LOW 10.63 3/4 LOW 10.52 3/4
CLOSE10.75 1/4 Down 5 CLOSE 10.57 1/2 Down 9 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+JUL1+AUG16
CK Low 2.45 13.20 485.112.30 12.88 473.08
CK High 2.50 13.25 486.952.35 12.93 474.91
CK Average 2.47 -0.5813.22 485.842.32 -0.6512.90 473.93
Essex Cty 2.45 13.20 485.112.30 12.88 473.08
Mdsx Low 2.45 13.20 485.112.30 12.88 473.08
Mdsx High 2.45 13.20 485.112.32 12.90 473.81
Mdsx Average 2.45 -0.5913.20 485.112.31 -0.6612.89 473.44
Hensall 2.45 13.20 485.112.30 12.88 473.08
Bruce 2.45 13.20 485.112.30 12.88 473.08
Putnam 2.45 13.20 485.112.30 12.88 473.08
Burford 2.48 13.23 486.212.35 12.93 474.91
Port Perry 2.45 13.20 485.112.32 12.90 473.81
Norfolk 2.50 13.25 486.952.35 12.93 474.91
Palmerston 2.40 13.15 483.272.30 12.88 473.08
Varna 2.45 13.20 485.112.30 12.88 473.08
Trenton 2.45 13.20 485.112.25 12.83 471.24
Winchester 2.42 13.17 484.012.46 13.04 478.95
North Gower 2.21 12.96 476.292.39 12.97 476.38
Huron FOB 2.60 13.35 490.622.40 12.98 476.75
Kent FOB 2.65 13.40 492.462.45 13.03 478.59
Lambton FOB 2.45 13.20 485.112.55 13.13 482.26
Middlesex FOB2.56 2.62 N/A N/A 13.31 489.152.44 13.02 478.22
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.92 2.98 3.05 3.12 13.67 502.382.82 13.40 492.18
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.05 12.80 470.412.85 13.43 493.28
Toledo El. -0.34 10.41 382.67-0.42 10.16 373.28
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2928 up 0.0043
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL16 HI 4.84 3/4 JUL16 HI 4.84 3/4
LOW 4.77 LOW 4.77
CLOSE 4.80 Down 1 3/4 CLOSE 4.80 Down 1 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL16 HI 5.40 1/4 SEP16 HI 5.47 1/4
LOW 5.34 1/2 LOW 5.41 3/4
CLOSE 5.36 3/4 Down 2 1/2 CLOSE 5.44 Down 1 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.92 0.71 0.65 0.78
CAD $/bu 7.72 5.51 5.45 6.14
CAD $/tonne 283.67 202.49 200.10 225.77
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 0.40 N/A
London 2.78 0.38 0.57 N/A 0.70 0.38 0.38 N/A
Hensall 2.70 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.40 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Norwich 2.70 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.40 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.40 0.55 -0.15 N/A 0.40 0.40 0.28
Kent Bridge 2.70 N/A -0.15 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.40 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 0.40 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.30 0.50 0.55 N/A 0.25 0.30 0.55
Varna 2.70 0.40 0.55 N/A 0.65 0.40 0.40 N/A
Mitchell 2.70 0.35 0.55 N/A 0.65 0.40 0.40 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.01 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.48 0.42 0.55 N/A 0.38 0.53 0.72
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A 0.25 0.80 0.95
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.24 N/A 1.96 N/A 1.24 N/A
Toledo El. 4.70US 6.11CA 4.70US 6.11CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.79 0.66 0.66 0.85
CAD $/bu 5.59 5.46 5.46 6.29
CAD $/tonne 205.35 200.58 200.58 231.14
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 557.45
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 200.00
-----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, May 18, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 3.99 ↑ 22 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 10.75 ↓ 2 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.59 ↑ 21 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.37 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.57 ↑ 17 cents
Chicago Oats July 1.93 ↑ 5 cents
Canadian $ June .7690 ↓ 1.05 points
CORN:
Corn continues to show signs of life on the technicals. As of May 18 we are sitting at the $4 level discussed last week. We are now approaching the April 21 high of $4.07 and should be testing it within the next few days. A close above that level on the July Chicago futures would propel us toward the next important resistance of $4.25 - $4.35.
This week, we received a red signal on the weekly charts. This is very encouraging and for those of you who do not know, it is a confirmation indicator that I use to confirm an initial signal. This week’s red signal is indicating we are now positive on the weekly charts. This however does not mean we won’t trade lower, just that we have reason to believe that the long-term trend is becoming neutral and the possibility of a trend reversal is on the horizon. Incidentally, a close above the $4.07 would also negate a four-year-old trend line on the long-term charts.
We are looking at a support level of $3.70 and again at $3.50 with initial overhead resistance of $4 -$4.10 based on the closing prices of the July Chicago futures. Short and medium term indicators are now positive, but the long term trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
The April 13 commentary indicated we had a red signal on the beans from the previous week. At that time, we were trading at $9.55 and the indicators suggested a challenge of the $10 level on the upside. Since then, we continue to work higher and are now staring at last week’s high of $10.92 as our roadblock. As of May 18 we are trading at $10.80. There is a strong possibility that before next week’s commentary we will have moved through the $11 level on July and the big question is whether we will see a blow off top with a reversal soon after, or a break to even higher prices. Either way, it seems likely we will challenge the $11 mark very soon. If we manage to make our way above $11.25 on any close, there is not much stopping this market from launching an attack on the $12 Chicago futures price. Meanwhile, like the corn, we now have both short and medium term indicators receiving a red signal. The key here is that we still need to recognize for the time being that we are in a bear market. This has been our stand for many months and until we get confirmation of a major trend change, we need to view this as a bear market rally until we receive a red signal on the long term charts. Support is now seen at $10 while overhead resistance remains at $11 and $11.25. Short term indicators remain bullish, but the long term trend is still negative.
WHEAT:
After testing support once again at the $4.55 area, the July wheat finally put in a strong performance closing about 20 cents higher on the week. Last week, we suggested we would see strength in the wheat prices if the corn and beans continued to perform. That seems to be the case and the daily wheat chart actually looks quite positive suggesting a good move higher in the coming weeks. Of course, this is the technical indicators and nothing is guaranteed. Looking at the support and resistance, we see major resistance between the $5.20 and $5.40 area on the July contract. A close above $5.40 on July could be reason for excitement as it would violate a four-year-old trend line. The week of May 16 we witnessed an initial buy signal on both the daily and weekly charts but these are not the red confirmation signals that are more prevalent. Meanwhile, the short term indicators have turned positive with the 20 cent move higher but the long term trend is still stubbornly down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on May 18, 2016
SWW @ $205.14/MT ($5.58bu), HRW @ $200.37/MT ($5.45/bu),
HRS @ $230.91/MT ($6.28/bu), SRW @ $200.37/MT ($5.45/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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