[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed May 11 15:46:02 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, May 11
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2836 down 0.0123
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
JUL16 HI 3.83 1/4 DEC16 HI 3.89 3/4
LOW 3.75 1/4 LOW 3.82 1/4
CLOSE3.77 1/2 Down 3 1/2 CLOSE 3.85 1/2 Down 2 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL16+SEP16+SEP16
CK Low 0.65 4.43 174.20 0.55 4.41 173.42
CK High 0.70 4.48 176.17 0.60 4.46 175.39
CK Avg 0.69 -0.30 4.47 175.84 0.56 -0.42 4.42 173.88
Essex Cty 0.65 4.43 174.20 0.60 4.46 175.39
Mdsx Low 0.70 4.48 176.17 0.55 4.41 173.42
Mdsx High 0.70 4.48 176.17 0.55 4.41 173.42
Mdsx Avg 0.70 -0.29 4.48 176.17 0.55 -0.42 4.41 173.42
Hensall 0.70 4.48 176.17 0.56 4.42 173.81
Bruce 0.65 4.43 174.20 0.50 4.36 171.45
Putnam 0.70 4.48 176.17 0.55 4.41 173.42
Burford 0.70 4.48 176.17 0.55 4.41 173.42
Port Perry 0.75 4.53 178.14 0.60 4.46 175.39
Norfolk 0.70 4.48 176.17 0.57 4.43 174.20
Palmerston 0.65 4.43 174.20 0.60 4.46 175.39
Varna 0.70 4.48 176.17 0.55 4.41 173.42
Trenton 0.80 4.58 180.11 0.75 4.61 181.29
Winchester 0.85 4.63 182.08 0.85 4.71 185.23
North Gower 0.77 4.55 178.93 0.80 4.66 183.26
Huron FOB 0.83 4.61 181.29 0.58 4.44 174.60
Kent FOB 0.90 4.68 184.05 0.67 4.53 178.14
Lamb FOB 0.90 4.68 184.05 0.65 4.51 177.35
Mdsx FOB 0.85 0.85N/A N/A 4.63 182.08 0.60 4.46 175.39
FOB SW Que 1.03 4.81 189.16N/A
Track 1.18 4.95 194.87N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 1.10 1.15 1.15 1.15 4.88 191.92 0.90 4.76 187.20
Sarn-Eth 1.10 1.15 1.20N/A 4.88 191.92N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.81 189.16
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.25 0.87 4.73 186.02
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.20 1.10 1.25 1.30 4.98 195.86N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.25 0.95 4.81 189.16
W O Feed 1.24 5.02 197.59
US Rep 1.39 5.17 203.34
Toledo El. -0.01 3.76 148.11 -0.26 3.60 141.65
MID SD CRN 0.57 1/2 4.43
HI SD CRN 0.60 4.45 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2836 down 0.0123
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
JUL16 HI 10.91 NOV16 HI 10.75
LOW 10.73 LOW 10.58 1/4
CLOSE10.78 1/4 Down 5 3/4 CLOSE 10.66 Down 1 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+JUL1+AUG16
CK Low 2.33 13.11 481.802.20 12.86 472.52
CK High 2.45 13.23 486.212.30 12.96 476.20
CK Average 2.39 -0.5313.17 483.952.24 -0.6112.90 474.12
Essex Cty 2.45 13.23 486.212.25 12.91 474.36
Mdsx Low 2.31 13.09 481.072.19 12.85 472.16
Mdsx High 2.40 13.18 484.372.25 12.91 474.36
Mdsx Average 2.36 -0.5513.14 482.722.22 -0.6312.88 473.26
Hensall 2.38 13.16 483.462.23 12.89 473.44
Bruce 2.40 13.18 484.372.20 12.86 472.52
Putnam 2.40 13.18 484.372.20 12.86 472.52
Burford 2.34 13.12 482.172.22 12.88 473.26
Port Perry 2.31 13.09 481.072.19 12.85 472.16
Norfolk 2.35 13.13 482.542.20 12.86 472.52
Palmerston 2.40 13.18 484.372.25 12.91 474.36
Varna 2.35 13.13 482.542.20 12.86 472.52
Trenton 2.35 13.13 482.542.20 12.86 472.52
Winchester 2.35 13.13 482.542.45 13.11 481.71
North Gower 2.27 13.05 479.602.31 12.97 476.57
Huron FOB 2.50 13.28 488.052.30 12.96 476.20
Kent FOB 2.50 13.28 488.052.30 12.96 476.20
Lambton FOB 2.45 13.23 486.212.45 13.11 481.71
Middlesex FOB2.42 2.48 N/A N/A 13.20 485.112.36 13.02 478.40
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.79 2.79 2.92 2.99 13.57 498.702.56 13.22 485.75
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.00 12.78 469.682.75 13.41 492.73
Toledo El. -0.33 10.45 383.92-0.41 10.25 376.59
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2836 down 0.0123
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL16 HI 4.64 3/4 JUL16 HI 4.64 3/4
LOW 4.56 3/4 LOW 4.56 3/4
CLOSE 4.59 Down 2 1/4 CLOSE 4.59 Down 2 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
JUL16 HI 5.35 SEP16 HI 5.42
LOW 5.25 1/4 LOW 5.32 3/4
CLOSE 5.27 1/4 Down 6 1/2 CLOSE 5.34 1/2 Down 7
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.77 0.58 0.52 0.68
CAD $/bu 7.36 5.17 5.11 5.95
CAD $/tonne 270.34 190.14 187.78 218.56
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.25 0.35 N/A
London 2.86 0.29 0.48 N/A 0.67 0.29 0.29 N/A
Hensall 2.70 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.35 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.20 N/A
Norwich 2.70 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.35 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.25 0.55 -0.15 N/A 0.35 0.35 0.28
Kent Bridge 2.70 N/A -0.15 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.35 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.25 0.35 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.35 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.30 0.50 0.55 N/A 0.25 0.30 0.55
Varna 2.70 0.35 0.50 N/A 0.60 0.35 0.35 N/A
Mitchell 2.70 0.25 0.55 N/A 0.65 0.35 0.35 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.53 0.46 0.63 N/A 0.32 0.47 0.71
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A 0.25 0.80 0.95
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.11 N/A 1.82 N/A 1.11 N/A
Toledo El. 4.49US 5.77CA 4.49US 5.77CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.66 0.53 0.53 0.75
CAD $/bu 5.25 5.12 5.12 6.09
CAD $/tonne 192.97 188.25 188.25 223.87
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 540.14
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 185.00 - 200.00
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for May 11, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, May 11, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 3.74 ↓ 2 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 10.78 ↑ 42 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.59 ↓ 12 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.27 ↓ 14 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.42 ↓ 16 cents
Chicago Oats July 1.88 ↓ 7 cents
Canadian $ June .7790 ↑ 0.15 points
CORN:
With the USDA tweaking their carryout numbers and increasing potential export numbers, corn followed soybeans higher but closed out the week basically unchanged from last Wednesday’s commentary. From here, we see an uphill battle to move above the $4 highs of April 21. If we could somehow manage this feat and close above the $4.07 high from last week, it could ignite a further rally to the $4.25-$4.35 level and the start of a serious threat to the downward trend. However, before we get ahead of ourselves, we need to see significant changes in the underlying fundamentals.
We are looking at a support level of $3.50 and overhead resistance of $4 based on the July Chicago futures. Short term indicators are positive, while the weekly indicators are neutral to bullish. Of course, the long term trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
Soybeans were the star of the show this week, as they initially eased back towards the $10 support before the assault on the $10.60 top. Once they penetrated $10.60, the short covering action drove the soybeans’ limit up; hitting their 65 cent limit after the USDA report was released at noon on May 10. They settled the day just a nickel off their limit. From here, we could expect a day or two of consolidation before we re-test the newly formed high of $10.91, providing we manage to close above $10.40 on the July charts. A close below this level would indicate a pullback to re-test initial support at the $10.25 level. A close below $10.25 could indicate a short term top is in place for the next month or more.
Although the move this week was impressive, we need to remind you that the main trend is still down and this should be viewed as a selling opportunity until we see a confirmation of a trend reversal. The next upside target is to take out the $11 level on July, and watch to see if there is any follow through to the upside.
Short term indicators remain bullish, but the long term trend is still negative.
WHEAT:
July wheat had another rough week after failing to keep up with the other grains. We have a sell signal on the July contract, and we expect to see a test of the all-important $4.40 level once again. Failure to find support and closing below this level on the July contract suggests a drop to the $4.25, and possibly even $4, levels. This may be temporarily delayed by the bullishness of soybeans, but if we reverse course on the other grains, the momentum will spill into wheat and possibly push us to new lows for 2016.
Major overhead resistance is still at the $5.20 - $5.40 level based on the July contract, and all indicators remain negative.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on May 11, 2016
SWW @ $192.92/MT ($5.25bu), HRW @ $188.20/MT ($5.12/bu),
HRS @ $223.81/MT ($6.09/bu), SRW @ $188.20/MT ($5.12/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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