[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report plus Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Mar 31 15:07:38 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, March 31
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2965 up 0.0003
Chicago corn closed lower.
MAY16 HI 3.67 1/4 DEC16 HI 3.84
LOW 3.47 1/2 LOW 3.64 3/4
CLOSE3.51 1/2 Down 15 1/2 CLOSE 3.68 3/4 Down 15 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY16+JUL16+JUL16
CK Low 0.65 4.17 163.97 0.55 4.24 166.82
CK High 0.75 4.27 167.91 0.65 4.34 170.76
CK Avg 0.68 -0.29 4.19 164.95 0.58 -0.41 4.26 167.81
Essex Cty 0.70 4.22 165.94 0.60 4.29 168.79
Mdsx Low 0.65 4.17 163.97 0.55 4.24 166.82
Mdsx High 0.65 4.17 163.97 0.55 4.24 166.82
Mdsx Avg 0.65 -0.31 4.17 163.97 0.55 -0.43 4.24 166.82
Hensall 0.68 4.19 164.95 0.58 4.26 167.81
Bruce 0.65 4.17 163.97 0.55 4.24 166.82
Putnam 0.60 4.12 162.00 0.55 4.24 166.82
Burford 0.65 4.17 163.97 0.55 4.24 166.82
Port Perry 0.65 4.17 163.97 0.55 4.24 166.82
Norfolk 0.65 4.17 163.97 0.55 4.24 166.82
Palmerston 0.70 4.22 165.94 0.60 4.29 168.79
Varna 0.70 4.22 165.94 0.60 4.29 168.79
Trenton 0.80 4.32 169.87 0.70 4.39 172.73
Winchester 0.82 4.34 170.66 0.81 4.50 177.06
North Gower 0.85 4.37 171.84 0.84 4.53 178.24
Huron FOB 0.80 4.32 169.87 0.65 4.34 170.76
Kent FOB 0.75 4.27 167.91 0.55 4.24 166.82
Lamb FOB 0.85 4.37 171.84 0.70 4.39 172.73
Mdsx FOB 0.70 0.70 0.70N/A 4.22 165.94 0.60 4.29 168.79
FOB SW Que 1.00 4.52 177.75N/A
Track 1.14 4.66 183.26N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.00 1.00 1.05 0.80 4.49 176.67
Sarn-Eth 1.00N/A 1.10N/A 4.52 177.75N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.05 4.74 186.51
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.87 4.56 179.42
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.15 1.05 1.20 N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.64 182.57
W O Feed 1.23 4.75 186.80
US Rep 1.50 5.02 197.43
Toledo El. 0.14 3.66 144.00 -0.26 3.43 134.94
MID SD CRN 0.70 4.21 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.75 4.26 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2965 up 0.0003
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
MAY16 HI 9.14 NOV16 HI 9.27 3/4
LOW 8.96 LOW 9.10
CLOSE9.10 3/4 Up 1 3/4 CLOSE 9.24 3/4 Up 1 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY1+MAY1+JUL16
CK Low 2.23 11.34 416.581.95 11.20 411.44
CK High 2.40 11.51 422.832.10 11.35 416.95
CK Average 2.30 -0.3311.40 419.032.02 -0.5811.26 413.89
Essex Cty 2.35 11.46 420.992.05 11.30 415.11
Mdsx Low 2.21 11.32 415.851.93 11.18 410.70
Mdsx High 2.30 11.41 419.152.00 11.25 413.27
Mdsx Average 2.26 -0.3611.36 417.501.97 -0.6111.21 411.99
Hensall 2.30 11.41 419.152.00 11.25 413.27
Bruce 2.30 11.41 419.152.00 11.25 413.27
Putnam 2.30 11.41 419.152.00 11.25 413.27
Burford 2.34 11.45 420.621.96 11.21 411.81
Port Perry 2.21 11.32 415.851.93 11.18 410.70
Norfolk 2.25 11.36 417.322.00 11.25 413.27
Palmerston 2.30 11.41 419.152.00 11.25 413.27
Varna 2.40 11.51 422.832.10 11.35 416.95
Trenton 2.35 11.46 420.992.10 11.35 416.95
Winchester 2.09 11.20 411.442.14 11.39 418.42
North Gower 2.24 11.35 416.952.12 11.37 417.68
Huron FOB 2.40 11.51 422.832.05 11.30 415.11
Kent FOB 2.50 11.61 426.502.15 11.40 418.79
Lambton FOB 2.35 11.46 420.992.20 11.45 420.62
Middlesex FOB2.39 2.40 2.40 N/A 11.50 422.462.08 11.33 416.21
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.78 2.78 2.80 N/A 11.89 436.792.43 11.68 429.07
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.00 11.11 408.132.45 11.70 429.81
Toledo El. -0.21 8.90 327.01-0.32 8.92 327.86
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2965 up 0.0003
Chicago wheat closed higher.
MAY16 HI 4.75 JUL16 HI 4.82 1/4
LOW 4.55 1/4 LOW 4.62 3/4
CLOSE 4.73 1/2 Up 9 1/2 CLOSE 4.80 3/4 Up 9 1/4
Minni wheat closed higher.
MAY16 HI 5.31 1/4 SEP16 HI 5.48 1/2
LOW 5.12 LOW 5.30
CLOSE 5.29 1/2 Up 14 1/4 CLOSE 5.47 Up 14
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.23 1.03 1.03 0.80
CAD $/bu 7.97 5.76 5.76 6.10
CAD $/tonne 292.79 211.66 211.66 224.07
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.65 N/A N/A 0.50 0.45 N/A
London 2.87 0.42 0.62 N/A 0.70 0.38 0.38 N/A
Hensall 3.05 N/A 0.85 N/A 0.75 N/A 0.40 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.50 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Norwich 3.05 N/A 0.85 N/A 0.75 N/A 0.40 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.55 0.85 N/A N/A 0.45 0.50 0.56
Kent Bridge 3.05 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.75 N/A 0.40 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.55 0.05 N/A N/A 0.45 0.40 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.05 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.40 0.75 0.70 N/A 0.55 0.45 0.65
Varna 3.00 0.55 0.85 N/A 0.85 0.45 0.45 N/A
Mitchell 3.05 0.40 0.85 N/A 0.75 0.35 0.40 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.89 0.89 0.65 N/A 0.63 0.72 0.73
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.80 N/A N/A N/A 0.80 0.85 1.10
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.36 N/A 1.55 N/A 1.96 N/A 1.24 N/A
Toledo El. 4.66US 6.05CA 4.71US 6.11CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.98 0.92 0.85 0.99
CAD $/bu 5.79 5.72 5.66 6.46
CAD $/tonne 212.74 210.35 207.96 237.19
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 424.73
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 200.00 - 205.00
Thursday, March 31st, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May 3.51 ↓ 19 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 9.10 ↑ 0 cents
Wheat CBOT May 4.73 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat Minn. May 5.28 ↑ 15 cents
Wheat Kansas May 4.76 ↑ 5 cents
Chicago Oats May 1.85 ↓ 2 cents
Canadian $ June .7696 ↑ 1.42 points
CORN: Corn numbers were somewhat disappointing, as today’s USDA report showed planting intentions for corn at 93.6 million acres compared to an average guess of 89.972 million acres. On the charts: As of 12:15 pm the corn contract is trading at $3.53 for May, and even though it is 13 cents lower than before the report, there is no significant damage to my charts. If we manage to stay above $3.45 today, the worst could be over. However, if we close below these levels, the next major support is around the $3.20 level on the lead month contract.
For now, short term indicators look neutral while the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: The soybeans fared much better in the planting intentions department as the USDA numbers projected 82.2 million acres vs. an average guess of 83.05. The beans sold off initially but quickly rebounded and are unchanged on the day at 12:25 pm. On the charts: The May bean contract were eight cents lower after the report but we can close even slightly positive on the day, I feel we are heading higher. We have two buy signals on the lead month contract which seems to be attributed to the recent strength in bean oil. Our upside resistance is ($9.35-$9.50 and this could take some work. If we manage to close above the $9.50 level, I feel we will have a good chance of challenging the $10 level in the coming weeks. For now, both the short and medium term indicators are positive while the long term trend is still down.
WHEAT: Today’s report was somewhat supportive for spring wheat as the average guess for plantings were 12.83 million acres while the reported numbers were only 11.3 million acres. On the charts: Spring wheat is trading up 12 cents per bushel as of this writing on March 31st at 12:30 pm. Chicago wheat is now up three cents and if we can close positive today, we could be ready to start back towards the $5 level on the lead month. There is a lot of resistance between the $5 and $5.25 level, and that could limit our upside in the months ahead. Initial overhead resistance is at $4.80 with significant trouble at $5-$5.25. For now, short term signals are positive while the weekly charts are neutral but the long term trends remain down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on March 31, 2016
SWW @ $212.72/MT ($5.79/bu), HRW @ $210.33/MT ($5.72/bu),
HRS @ $237.31/MT ($6.46/bu), SRW @ $207.94/MT ($5.66/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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