[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Mar 24 15:38:05 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, March 24
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3269 up 0.0066
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
MAY16 HI 3.70 1/4 DEC16 HI 3.87 1/2
LOW 3.67 1/4 LOW 3.84 1/4
CLOSE3.70 Up 1 1/2 CLOSE 3.87 1/4 Up 1 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY16+JUL16+JUL16
CK Low 0.70 4.40 173.22 0.60 4.47 176.07
CK High 0.75 4.45 175.19 0.65 4.52 178.04
CK Avg 0.72 -0.37 4.42 173.88 0.61 -0.49 4.48 176.40
Essex Cty 0.75 4.45 175.19 0.60 4.47 176.07
Mdsx Low 0.70 4.40 173.22 0.60 4.47 176.07
Mdsx High 0.70 4.40 173.22 0.60 4.47 176.07
Mdsx Avg 0.70 -0.38 4.40 173.22 0.60 -0.50 4.47 176.07
Hensall 0.71 4.41 173.61 0.61 4.48 176.47
Bruce 0.70 4.40 173.22 0.60 4.47 176.07
Putnam 0.75 4.45 175.19 0.65 4.52 178.04
Burford 0.70 4.40 173.22 0.60 4.47 176.07
Port Perry 0.70 4.40 173.22 0.60 4.47 176.07
Norfolk 0.70 4.40 173.22 0.60 4.47 176.07
Palmerston 0.75 4.45 175.19 0.60 4.47 176.07
Varna 0.70 4.40 173.22 0.60 4.47 176.07
Trenton 0.90 4.60 181.09 0.70 4.57 180.01
Winchester 0.93 4.63 182.28 0.90 4.77 187.89
North Gower 0.91 4.61 181.49 0.91 4.78 188.28
Huron FOB 0.82 4.52 177.94 0.68 4.55 179.22
Kent FOB 0.80 4.50 177.16 0.60 4.47 176.07
Lamb FOB N/A 0.70 4.57 180.01
Mdsx FOB 0.80 0.85 0.80N/A 4.50 177.16 0.65 4.52 178.04
FOB SW Que 1.00 4.70 185.03N/A
Track 1.19 4.89 192.51N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.05 1.05 0.85 4.72 185.92
Sarn-Eth 1.05 1.10 1.10 1.10 4.75 187.00N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.05 4.92 193.79
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.87 4.74 186.70
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A 1.15 1.05 N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.82 189.85
W O Feed 1.25 4.95 194.87
US Rep 1.55 5.25 206.68
Toledo El. 0.15 3.85 151.40 -0.27 3.61 142.02
MID SD CRN 0.72 1/2 4.42 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.75 4.45
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3269 up 0.0066
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
MAY16 HI 9.11 3/4 NOV16 HI 9.23 3/4
LOW 9.02 LOW 9.13 3/4
CLOSE9.10 1/2 Up 5 1/4 CLOSE 9.22 3/4 Up 5 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY1+MAY1+JUL16
CK Low 2.55 11.66 428.252.25 11.48 421.73
CK High 2.60 11.71 430.092.30 11.53 423.56
CK Average 2.56 -0.3011.67 428.622.26 -0.5611.49 422.09
Essex Cty 2.65 11.76 431.922.30 11.53 423.56
Mdsx Low 2.54 11.65 427.882.24 11.47 421.36
Mdsx High 2.55 11.66 428.252.25 11.48 421.73
Mdsx Average 2.55 -0.3111.65 428.062.25 -0.5711.47 421.54
Hensall 2.53 11.63 427.332.25 11.48 421.73
Bruce 2.55 11.66 428.252.25 11.48 421.73
Putnam 2.35 11.46 420.902.10 11.33 416.21
Burford 2.57 11.68 428.982.27 11.50 422.46
Port Perry 2.54 11.65 427.882.24 11.47 421.36
Norfolk 2.55 11.66 428.252.25 11.48 421.73
Palmerston 2.60 11.71 430.092.25 11.48 421.73
Varna 2.50 11.61 426.412.25 11.48 421.73
Trenton 2.50 11.61 426.412.25 11.48 421.73
Winchester 2.49 11.60 426.042.35 11.58 425.40
North Gower 2.31 11.42 419.432.29 11.52 423.20
Huron FOB 2.60 11.71 430.092.30 11.53 423.56
Kent FOB 2.70 11.81 433.762.30 11.53 423.56
Lambton FOB 2.70 11.81 433.762.40 11.63 427.24
Middlesex FOB2.73 2.73 2.76 N/A 11.84 434.862.38 11.61 426.50
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.12 12.21 448.462.73 11.96 439.36
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.35 11.46 420.902.75 11.98 440.10
Toledo El. -0.21 8.89 326.76-0.33 8.90 326.88
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3269 up 0.0066
Chicago wheat closed steady.
MAY16 HI 4.64 1/2 JUL16 HI 4.72
LOW 4.58 1/2 LOW 4.66 1/4
CLOSE 4.63 Unchanged CLOSE 4.70 3/4 Unchanged
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
MAY16 HI 5.14 3/4 SEP16 HI 5.32 3/4
LOW 5.08 1/2 LOW 5.26
CLOSE 5.14 Up 2 CLOSE 5.32 1/2 Up 3
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.36 1.11 1.11 0.88
CAD $/bu 7.99 5.74 5.74 6.02
CAD $/tonne 293.58 210.81 210.81 221.04
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A 0.50 0.45 N/A
London 3.10 0.58 0.78 N/A 0.87 0.53 0.53 N/A
Hensall 3.10 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.80 N/A 0.45 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.50 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.70 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Norwich 3.10 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.80 N/A 0.45 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.65 0.90 N/A N/A 0.40 0.45 0.60
Kent Bridge 3.10 N/A 0.15 N/A 0.80 N/A 0.45 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.60 0.15 N/A N/A 0.50 0.50 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.50 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.50 0.80 0.74 N/A 0.60 0.55 0.65
Varna 3.05 0.60 0.90 N/A 0.90 0.50 0.50 N/A
Mitchell 3.10 0.40 0.90 N/A 0.80 0.40 0.45 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.99 0.99 0.75 N/A 0.73 0.82 0.94
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A 0.90 0.90 1.15
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.89 N/A 1.64 N/A 2.33 N/A 1.33 N/A
Toledo El. 4.55US 6.03CA 4.61US 6.11CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.07 1.00 0.93 1.07
CAD $/bu 5.77 5.71 5.64 6.39
CAD $/tonne 212.15 209.72 207.28 234.91
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 441.26
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 200.00 - 205.00
__________________________
Weekly Ontario Grain Market Commentary by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, March 23, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May 3.68 ↑ 1 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 9.05 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat CBOT May 4.63 ↓ 8 cents
Wheat Minn. May 5.13 ↓ 2 cents
Wheat Kansas May 4.72 ↓ 12 cents
Chicago Oats May 1.87 ↓ 7 cents
Canadian $ June .7582 ↑ 0.02 points
CORN:
On the charts: Very quiet week in corn as we continue to huddle against the overhead resistance line of $3.70 on the May contract. The base continues to grow as corn awaits positive news to clear the first obstacle of $3.70 and challenge the next resistance of $3.75 -$3.80. We still feel it will be after the March 31 USDA report if indeed it does occur. Meanwhile, solid support remains at the $3.50 level and our overhead resistance targets $3.75 - $4. on the May contract. For now, short term indicators look positive but the long term trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: The May bean contract continues to inch higher after the buy signal from two weeks ago. We have cleared the initial resistance at $9 and now look towards more significant resistance of $9.25-$9.50. My guess is we will have to wait until the release of the March 31 USDA report before we see a close above that resistance if we in fact do get it. The bean chart continues to impress with a well-established base from which it could launch a significant rally into the spring. If we were to clear the $9.50 level on the May Chicago futures, we have little in the way of resistance until we approach the $10.50 level. For now, the short term indicators are positive while the long term trend is still down.
WHEAT:
On the charts: Wheat continues to hold above the four month old $4.60 down-trend line that it violated back on March 10. Wheat like the other grains are pushing against the overhead resistance and a neutral or positive report on March 31 could see the beginning of a spring rally or even the beginning of the end of the bear market in grains. Of course this interpretation depends on many factors, two of which could be a neutral March 31 report or continued weakness in the US dollar. As we mentioned several weeks ago, the US dollar has shown signs of reversing which would lend support to the entire commodity sector.
Overhead resistance is at $4.80 with significant trouble at $5-$5.25. For now, short term signals are positive while the weekly charts are neutral but the long term trends remain down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE ON March 23, 2016
SWW @ $211.71/MT ($5.76/bu), HRW @ $209.28/MT ($5.70/bu),
HRS @ $232.83/MT ($6.34/bu), SRW @ $206.85/MT ($5.63/bu).
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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