[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jun 23 15:32:21 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, June 23
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2752 down 0.0068
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
JUL16 HI 3.92 3/4 DEC16 HI 4.03 1/2
LOW 3.84 LOW 3.95 1/4
CLOSE3.87 1/4 Down 5 3/4 CLOSE 3.97 3/4 Down 6 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP16+SEP16+DEC16
CK Low 0.75 4.62 181.98 0.65 4.63 182.18
CK High 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
CK Avg 0.79 -0.23 4.66 183.62 0.69 -0.33 4.67 183.82
Essex Cty 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
Mdsx Low 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
Mdsx High 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
Mdsx Avg 0.80 -0.22 4.67 183.95 0.70 -0.32 4.68 184.15
Hensall 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.71 4.69 184.54
Bruce 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
Putnam 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
Burford 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
Port Perry 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
Norfolk 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
Palmerston 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
Varna 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.70 4.68 184.15
Trenton 0.80 4.67 183.95 0.75 4.73 186.11
Winchester 0.89 4.76 187.49 0.80 4.78 188.08
North Gower 0.85 4.72 185.92 0.85 4.83 190.05
Huron FOB 0.95 4.82 189.85 0.70 4.68 184.15
Kent FOB 0.95 4.82 189.85 0.70 4.68 184.15
Lamb FOB 0.90 4.77 187.89 0.65 4.63 182.18
Mdsx FOB 0.90 0.90N/A N/A 4.77 187.89 0.70 4.68 184.15
FOB SW Que 1.20 5.07 199.70N/A
Track 1.18 5.05 198.71N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.10 N/A
Sarn-Eth 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.15 4.97 195.76N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.93 193.99
London-Ing N/A 1.30 1.34 1.33 0.92 4.90 192.81
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A 1.42 1.41 N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.96 4.94 194.38
W O Feed 1.27 5.14 202.37
US Rep 1.51 5.38 211.90
Toledo El. -0.01 3.86 151.95 -0.26 3.72 146.51
MID SD CRN 0.67 1/2 4.65 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.70 4.67 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2752 down 0.0068
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.
JUL16 HI 11.43 NOV16 HI 11.24
LOW 11.23 LOW 11.00 1/2
CLOSE11.24 1/2 Down 13 CLOSE 11.01 1/2 Down 15 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +AUG1+AUG1+NOV16
CK Low 2.32 13.57 498.432.29 13.31 488.88
CK High 2.50 13.75 505.042.35 13.37 491.08
CK Average 2.46 -0.5413.71 503.632.32 -0.5913.34 490.10
Essex Cty 2.50 13.75 505.042.35 13.37 491.08
Mdsx Low 2.45 13.70 503.212.27 13.29 488.14
Mdsx High 2.48 13.73 504.312.30 13.32 489.24
Mdsx Average 2.47 -0.5313.71 503.762.29 -0.6213.30 488.69
Hensall 2.45 13.70 503.212.28 13.29 488.32
Bruce 2.45 13.70 503.212.30 13.32 489.24
Putnam 2.50 13.75 505.042.35 13.37 491.08
Burford 2.51 13.76 505.412.30 13.32 489.24
Port Perry 2.48 13.73 504.312.27 13.29 488.14
Norfolk 2.50 13.75 505.042.30 13.32 489.24
Palmerston 2.50 13.75 505.042.35 13.37 491.08
Varna 2.45 13.70 503.212.25 13.27 487.41
Trenton 2.50 13.75 505.042.30 13.32 489.24
Winchester 2.26 13.51 496.222.32 13.34 489.98
North Gower 2.04 13.29 488.142.39 13.41 492.55
Huron FOB 2.60 13.85 508.722.40 13.42 492.92
Kent FOB 2.65 13.90 510.552.40 13.42 492.92
Lambton FOB 2.50 13.75 505.042.50 13.52 496.59
Middlesex FOB2.39 2.59 2.88 N/A 13.64 501.002.44 13.46 494.39
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.79 2.99 3.18 N/A 14.04 515.702.73 13.75 505.04
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 1.80 13.05 479.322.75 13.77 505.78
Toledo El. -0.19 11.05 406.13-0.41 10.61 389.68
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2752 down 0.0068
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL16 HI 4.61 1/2 JUL16 HI 4.61 1/2
LOW 4.53 1/4 LOW 4.53 1/4
CLOSE 4.54 1/4 Down 4 1/2 CLOSE 4.54 1/4 Down 4 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL16 HI 5.28 SEP16 HI 5.38
LOW 5.20 3/4 LOW 5.30
CLOSE 5.21 1/2 Down 3 3/4 CLOSE 5.31 Down 3 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.73 0.55 0.49 0.64
CAD $/bu 7.27 5.10 5.03 5.86
CAD $/tonne 267.24 187.29 184.94 215.16
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.30 0.32 N/A
London 2.58 0.23 0.29 N/A 0.54 0.23 0.23 N/A
Hensall 2.55 N/A 0.30 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.30 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.13 N/A N/A N/A 0.25 N/A
Norwich 2.55 N/A 0.30 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.30 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.30 0.35 -0.06 N/A 0.42 0.30 0.50
Kent Bridge 2.55 N/A -0.15 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.30 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.30 0.30 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.30 0.40 0.55 N/A 0.45 0.40 1.00
Varna 2.40 0.15 0.30 N/A 0.50 0.30 0.30 N/A
Mitchell 2.55 0.20 0.30 N/A 0.55 0.25 0.30 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.25 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.38 0.31 0.46 N/A 0.34 0.49 0.64
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.30 N/A 0.45 N/A 0.75 0.75 1.25
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.14 N/A 1.68 N/A 1.14 N/A
Toledo El. 4.47US 5.72CA 4.47US 5.72CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.63 0.57 0.57 0.72
CAD $/bu 5.17 5.11 5.11 6.03
CAD $/tonne 190.11 187.76 187.76 221.51
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 574.53
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 230.00 - 235.00
-----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for June 22, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, June 22, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 3.93 ↓ 36 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 11.38 ↓ 20 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.59 ↓ 18 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.25 ↓ 05 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.33 ↓ 23 cents
Chicago Oats July 2.04 ↓ 02 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7788 ↑ .50 points
CORN:
Last week we indicated that we could continue to see the $4.40 area in corn challenged, and since the June 15 commentary we have challenged the $4.40 level a total of six times. This shows us the significance of that resistance level as the outcome was a big reversal on June 21. The 62% retracement of the 2014 highs proved to be too much, at least for this rally. We are currently sitting at the first support level on the July contract of $3.80 - $4. The price drop from the $4.40 high is severe, but I believe that we could find good support at the $3.80 level for the interim and possibly see a bounce in the futures from these levels. For those of you who feel you may have missed the highs, we could see prices back towards the $4.05 - $4.20 should you decide you need to sell some of your crop. As for the actual technicals, nothing has really changed as this appears to be just a healthy correction for the price rise we've seen - albeit a severe correction. Support levels on the July contract are at $3.80 - $4 based on Chicago July futures and our shorter term indicators are neutral, but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
Soybeans have pulled back from our target of $12 to our first resistance level of $11.25 as of June 22. This action is a correcting action and was needed to preserve a healthy market going forward as the move to the $12 level signalled a 50% rally from the highs of 2014 to the lows of 2016. The big question we have is how much of a correction we will see. Our initial support is at $11.25 while the next leg down could challenge the $11 mark on the July contract. If we do not close below $11 and recover, we may eventually see a renewed move to challenge of the $12 mark in the coming weeks. Good support is now seen at $10.75 and again around $10.40, while overhead resistance remains at $11.90 - $12.10. This 2016 move on the Soybeans has been significant and if we fail to clear the $12.08 high during July, we may have seen the highs for the summer. Short and medium term indicators remain neutral to bullish, while the long term trend is still negative.
WHEAT:
Again wheat proves to be the weak link in the grains as the correction since the June 8 highs was quite severe. After reaching our target price of the $5.25 two year old trend-line on the wheat, the wheels came off as we dropped 65 cents since that high. We are currently back to the main support levels of $4.50 on July and are in need of positive news to turn this market higher. As with the corn and to a lesser extent, soybeans, wheat has seen its price fall sharply since its recent highs. The technicals on the wheat are not as positive as its counterparts but do show support at the $4.40 - $4.50 level. Below that level, we are looking at the $4.25 price on the lead month contract. According to my charts, we may have seen the highs in wheat for at least the month of July but only time will tell the true story. Both the daily and weekly indicators have flashed initial sell signals and the main trend continues to be down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on June 22, 2016
SWW @ $192.81/MT ($5.25/bu), HRW @ $190.45/MT ($5.18/bu),
HRS @ $223.93/MT ($6.09/bu), SRW @ $190.45/MT ($5.18/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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