[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jun 23 15:32:21 EDT 2016


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, June 23
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2752 down 0.0068
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.

      JUL16   HI 3.92  3/4                    DEC16    HI 4.03  1/2
             LOW 3.84                                 LOW 3.95  1/4
            CLOSE3.87  1/4  Down 5 3/4              CLOSE 3.97  3/4  Down 6 1/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +SEP16+SEP16+DEC16
CK Low       0.75                        4.62 181.98  0.65         4.63 182.18
CK High      0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
CK Avg       0.79                  -0.23 4.66 183.62  0.69 -0.33   4.67 183.82
Essex Cty    0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
Mdsx Low     0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
Mdsx High    0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
Mdsx Avg     0.80                  -0.22 4.67 183.95  0.70 -0.32   4.68 184.15
Hensall      0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.71         4.69 184.54
Bruce        0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
Putnam       0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
Burford      0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
Port Perry   0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
Norfolk      0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
Palmerston   0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
Varna        0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.70         4.68 184.15
Trenton      0.80                        4.67 183.95  0.75         4.73 186.11
Winchester   0.89                        4.76 187.49  0.80         4.78 188.08
North Gower  0.85                        4.72 185.92  0.85         4.83 190.05
Huron FOB    0.95                        4.82 189.85  0.70         4.68 184.15
Kent FOB     0.95                        4.82 189.85  0.70         4.68 184.15
Lamb FOB     0.90                        4.77 187.89  0.65         4.63 182.18
Mdsx FOB     0.90  0.90N/A   N/A         4.77 187.89  0.70         4.68 184.15
FOB SW Que   1.20                        5.07 199.70N/A
Track        1.18                        5.05 198.71N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A     1.10                   N/A
Sarn-Eth     1.10  1.10  1.10  1.15      4.97 195.76N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.95         4.93 193.99
London-Ing  N/A    1.30  1.34  1.33                   0.92         4.90 192.81
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A     1.42  1.41                 N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.96         4.94 194.38
W O Feed     1.27                        5.14 202.37

US Rep       1.51                        5.38 211.90
Toledo El.  -0.01                        3.86 151.95 -0.26         3.72 146.51


MID SD CRN                                            0.67   1/2   4.65 1/4
HI SD CRN                                             0.70         4.67 3/4
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2752 down 0.0068
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.

       JUL16   HI 11.43               NOV16    HI 11.24
              LOW 11.23                       LOW 11.00  1/2
             CLOSE11.24  1/2  Down 13       CLOSE 11.01  1/2  Down 15 1/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +AUG1+AUG1+NOV16
CK Low       2.32                     13.57 498.432.29      13.31 488.88
CK High      2.50                     13.75 505.042.35      13.37 491.08
CK Average   2.46                -0.5413.71 503.632.32 -0.5913.34 490.10
Essex Cty    2.50                     13.75 505.042.35      13.37 491.08
Mdsx Low     2.45                     13.70 503.212.27      13.29 488.14
Mdsx High    2.48                     13.73 504.312.30      13.32 489.24
Mdsx Average 2.47                -0.5313.71 503.762.29 -0.6213.30 488.69
Hensall      2.45                     13.70 503.212.28      13.29 488.32
Bruce        2.45                     13.70 503.212.30      13.32 489.24
Putnam       2.50                     13.75 505.042.35      13.37 491.08
Burford      2.51                     13.76 505.412.30      13.32 489.24
Port Perry   2.48                     13.73 504.312.27      13.29 488.14
Norfolk      2.50                     13.75 505.042.30      13.32 489.24
Palmerston   2.50                     13.75 505.042.35      13.37 491.08
Varna        2.45                     13.70 503.212.25      13.27 487.41
Trenton      2.50                     13.75 505.042.30      13.32 489.24
Winchester   2.26                     13.51 496.222.32      13.34 489.98
North Gower  2.04                     13.29 488.142.39      13.41 492.55
Huron FOB    2.60                     13.85 508.722.40      13.42 492.92
Kent FOB     2.65                     13.90 510.552.40      13.42 492.92
Lambton FOB  2.50                     13.75 505.042.50      13.52 496.59
Middlesex FOB2.39 2.59 2.88  N/A      13.64 501.002.44      13.46 494.39

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     2.79 2.99 3.18  N/A      14.04 515.702.73      13.75 505.04
Windsor       N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Prescott     1.80                     13.05 479.322.75      13.77 505.78

Toledo El.   -0.19                    11.05 406.13-0.41     10.61 389.68


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2752 down 0.0068
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL16      HI     4.61  1/2             JUL16   HI      4.61  1/2
           LOW    4.53  1/4                     LOW     4.53  1/4
           CLOSE  4.54  1/4  Down 4 1/2         CLOSE   4.54  1/4  Down 4 1/2

Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL16      HI         5.28              SEP16   HI         5.38
           LOW    5.20  3/4                     LOW        5.30
           CLOSE  5.21  1/2  Down 3 3/4         CLOSE   5.31   Down 3 3/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 2.73          0.55            0.49          0.64
CAD $/bu              7.27          5.10            5.03          5.86
CAD $/tonne         267.24        187.29          184.94        215.16


Direct MarkHarvest 2015                 Harvest 2016
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     0.30   0.32    N/A
London      2.58    0.23   0.29    N/A    0.54    0.23   0.23    N/A
Hensall     2.55    N/A    0.30    N/A    0.55    N/A    0.30    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.40    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.13    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.25    N/A
Norwich     2.55    N/A    0.30    N/A    0.55    N/A    0.30    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    0.30   0.35   -0.06   N/A     0.42   0.30   0.50
Kent Bridge 2.55    N/A    -0.15   N/A    0.55    N/A    0.30    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     0.30   0.30    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.30    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    0.30   0.40   0.55    N/A     0.45   0.40   1.00
Varna       2.40    0.15   0.30    N/A    0.50    0.30   0.30    N/A
Mitchell    2.55    0.20   0.30    N/A    0.55    0.25   0.30    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   -0.25   N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    0.38   0.31   0.46    N/A     0.34   0.49   0.64

TERMINAL
Prescott     N/A    0.30    N/A   0.45    N/A     0.75   0.75   1.25

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.14    N/A    1.68    N/A    1.14    N/A

Toledo El. 4.47US         5.72CA        4.47US          5.72CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.63          0.57            0.57          0.72
CAD $/bu              5.17          5.11            5.11          6.03
CAD $/tonne         190.11        187.76          187.76        221.51

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             574.53
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      230.00 - 235.00

-----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for June 22, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario

Wednesday, June 22, 2016 Closing Prices  
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	July	3.93	↓	         36	cents
Soybeans CBOT	July	11.38	↓	 20	cents
Wheat CBOT	July	4.59	↓	18	cents
Wheat Minn.	July	5.25	↓	05	cents
Wheat Kansas	July	4.33	↓	23	cents
Chicago Oats	 July	2.04	↓	02	cents 
					
Canadian $	Sep	.7788	↑	.50	points

CORN:
Last week we indicated that we could continue to see the $4.40 area in corn challenged, and since the June 15 commentary we have challenged the $4.40 level a total of six times. This shows us the significance of that resistance level as the outcome was a big reversal on June 21. The 62% retracement of the 2014 highs proved to be too much, at least for this rally. We are currently sitting at the first support level on the July contract of $3.80 - $4. The price drop from the $4.40 high is severe, but I believe that we could find good support at the $3.80 level for the interim and possibly see a bounce in the futures from these levels. For those of you who feel you may have missed the highs, we could see prices back towards the $4.05 - $4.20 should you decide you need to sell some of your crop. As for the actual technicals, nothing has really changed as this appears to be just a healthy correction for the price rise we've seen - albeit a severe correction.  Support levels on the July contract are at $3.80 - $4 based on Chicago July futures and our shorter term indicators are neutral, but the main trend is still down.

SOYBEANS:
Soybeans have pulled back from our target of $12 to our first resistance level of $11.25 as of June 22. This action is a correcting action and was needed to preserve a healthy market going forward as the move to the $12 level signalled a 50% rally from the highs of 2014 to the lows of 2016.  The big question we have is how much of a correction we will see. Our initial support is at $11.25 while the next leg down could challenge the $11 mark on the July contract. If we do not close below $11 and recover, we may eventually see a renewed move to challenge of the $12 mark in the coming weeks. Good support is now seen at $10.75 and again around $10.40, while overhead resistance remains at $11.90 - $12.10. This 2016 move on the Soybeans has been significant and if we fail to clear the $12.08 high during July, we may have seen the highs for the summer. Short and medium term indicators remain neutral to bullish, while the long term trend is still negative.

WHEAT:
Again wheat proves to be the weak link in the grains as the correction since the June 8 highs was quite severe. After reaching our target price of the $5.25 two year old trend-line on the wheat, the wheels came off as we dropped 65 cents since that high. We are currently back to the main support levels of $4.50 on July and are in need of positive news to turn this market higher. As with the corn and to a lesser extent, soybeans, wheat has seen its price fall sharply since its recent highs. The technicals on the wheat are not as positive as its counterparts but do show support at the $4.40 - $4.50 level. Below that level, we are looking at the $4.25 price on the lead month contract. According to my charts, we may have seen the highs in wheat for at least the month of July but only time will tell the true story. Both the daily and weekly indicators have flashed initial sell signals and the main trend continues to be down.


HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on June 22, 2016

SWW @ $192.81/MT ($5.25/bu),  HRW @ $190.45/MT ($5.18/bu), 
HRS @ $223.93/MT ($6.09/bu),  SRW @ $190.45/MT ($5.18/bu).


-- 
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

Click on this link: farmmarketnews-unsubscribe at list.gfo.ca  to unsubscribe from this report.
This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
-------------- next part --------------
An embedded and charset-unspecified text was scrubbed...
Name: corn.txt
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20160623/8f8ad8ec/attachment-0001.txt>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: grain.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 265174 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20160623/8f8ad8ec/attachment-0002.pdf>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: wheatcom.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 399524 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20160623/8f8ad8ec/attachment-0003.pdf>


More information about the Farmmarketnews mailing list