[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report Plus Weekly GFO Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jun 16 15:32:38 EDT 2016


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, June 16
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3041 up 0.0127
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.

      JUL16   HI 4.29  3/4                    DEC16    HI 4.41
             LOW 4.20  1/2                            LOW 4.31  1/4
            CLOSE4.25  1/4  Down 3 3/4              CLOSE 4.35  3/4  Down 3 3/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +SEP16+SEP16+DEC16
CK Low       0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.65         5.01 197.14
CK High      0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.70         5.06 199.10
CK Avg       0.80                  -0.35 5.05 198.91  0.67 -0.48   5.02 197.79
Essex Cty    0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.70         5.06 199.10
Mdsx Low     0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.65         5.01 197.14
Mdsx High    0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.65         5.01 197.14
Mdsx Avg     0.80                  -0.35 5.05 198.91  0.65 -0.49   5.01 197.14
Hensall      0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.67         5.02 197.73
Bruce        0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.65         5.01 197.14
Putnam       0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.65         5.01 197.14
Burford      0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.65         5.01 197.14
Port Perry   0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.70         5.06 199.10
Norfolk      0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.65         5.01 197.14
Palmerston   0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.70         5.06 199.10
Varna        0.80                        5.05 198.91  0.70         5.06 199.10
Trenton      0.85                        5.10 200.88  0.75         5.11 201.07
Winchester   1.00                        5.25 206.78  0.90         5.26 206.98
North Gower  0.85                        5.10 200.88  0.85         5.21 205.01
Huron FOB    1.00                        5.25 206.78  0.75         5.11 201.07
Kent FOB     0.95                        5.20 204.81  0.70         5.06 199.10
Lamb FOB     0.90                        5.15 202.84  0.70         5.06 199.10
Mdsx FOB     0.90  0.90N/A   N/A         5.15 202.84  0.70         5.06 199.10
FOB SW Que   1.13                        5.38 211.90N/A
Track        1.18                        5.43 213.67N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A     1.10                   N/A
Sarn-Eth     1.10  1.10  1.10  1.15      5.35 210.72N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.95         5.31 208.95
London-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.41  1.49                   1.00         5.36 210.92
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A     1.57                 N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      1.07         5.43 213.67
W O Feed     1.30                        5.55 218.67

US Rep       1.57                        5.82 229.22
Toledo El.  -0.01                        4.24 166.90 -0.26         4.10 161.35


MID SD CRN                                            0.67   1/2   5.03 1/4
HI SD CRN                                             0.70         5.05 3/4
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3041 up 0.0127
Chicago soybeans closed moderately lower.

       JUL16   HI 11.60               NOV16    HI 11.42  3/4
              LOW 11.28  1/2                  LOW 11.08  1/4
             CLOSE11.34  1/2  Down 21 1/2   CLOSE 11.19  1/4  Down 19 1/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +JUL1+AUG1+NOV16
CK Low       2.65                     14.00 514.232.60      13.79 506.79
CK High      2.80                     14.15 519.742.65      13.84 508.62
CK Average   2.74                -0.4714.09 517.542.61 -0.5413.80 507.09
Essex Cty    2.75                     14.10 517.902.60      13.79 506.79
Mdsx Low     2.72                     14.07 516.802.58      13.77 506.05
Mdsx High    2.75                     14.10 517.902.60      13.79 506.79
Mdsx Average 2.74                -0.4714.08 517.352.59 -0.5513.78 506.42
Hensall      2.78                     14.12 518.822.60      13.79 506.79
Bruce        2.75                     14.10 517.902.55      13.74 504.95
Putnam       2.65                     14.00 514.232.45      13.64 501.28
Burford      2.75                     14.10 517.902.61      13.80 507.16
Port Perry   2.72                     14.07 516.802.58      13.77 506.05
Norfolk      2.75                     14.10 517.902.60      13.79 506.79
Palmerston   2.75                     14.10 517.902.60      13.79 506.79
Varna        2.80                     14.15 519.742.60      13.79 506.79
Trenton      2.60                     13.95 512.392.50      13.69 503.11
Winchester   2.55                     13.90 510.552.60      13.79 506.79
North Gower  2.35                     13.70 503.212.70      13.89 510.46
Huron FOB    2.90                     14.25 523.412.70      13.89 510.46
Kent FOB     2.85                     14.20 521.582.70      13.89 510.46
Lambton FOB  2.55                     13.90 510.552.75      13.94 512.30
Middlesex FOB2.67 2.80  N/A  N/A      14.02 514.962.69      13.88 510.09

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     3.15 3.28 3.41  N/A      14.50 532.603.09      14.28 524.79
Windsor       N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Prescott     2.10                     13.45 494.023.10      14.29 525.16

Toledo El.   -0.30                    11.05 405.91-0.41     10.78 396.03


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3041 up 0.0127
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL16      HI     4.79  1/2             JUL16   HI      4.79  1/2
           LOW        4.71                      LOW        4.71
           CLOSE  4.72  1/2  Down 5             CLOSE   4.72  1/2  Down 5

Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL16      HI         5.36              SEP16   HI         5.45
           LOW    5.28  1/2                     LOW     5.37  1/4
           CLOSE  5.29  1/4  Down 1 1/4         CLOSE   5.38  3/4  Down 1 3/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 2.87          0.67            0.60          0.73
CAD $/bu              7.60          5.39            5.33          6.03
CAD $/tonne         279.11        198.21          195.83        221.41


Direct MarkHarvest 2015                 Harvest 2016
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     0.40   0.40    N/A
London      2.79    0.39   0.45    N/A    0.71    0.39   0.39    N/A
Hensall     2.65    N/A    0.40    N/A    0.65    N/A    0.40    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.45    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.23    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.30    N/A
Norwich     2.65    N/A    0.40    N/A    0.65    N/A    0.40    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    0.30   0.40   -0.06   N/A     0.50   0.45   0.46
Kent Bridge 2.65    N/A    -0.15   N/A    0.65    N/A    0.40    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     0.40   0.40    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.40    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    0.30   0.40   0.55    N/A     0.45   0.40   1.00
Varna       2.55    0.30   0.45    N/A    0.65    0.45   0.45    N/A
Mitchell    2.65    0.30   0.40    N/A    0.65    0.35   0.40    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.02    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    0.47   0.40   0.52    N/A     0.37   0.52   0.70

TERMINAL
Prescott     N/A    0.30    N/A   0.45    N/A     0.75   0.75   1.25

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.20    N/A    1.85    N/A    1.20    N/A

Toledo El. 4.63US         5.99CA        4.63US          5.99CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.75          0.62            0.62          0.81
CAD $/bu              5.47          5.34            5.34          6.20
CAD $/tonne         201.06        196.31          196.31        227.83

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             598.23
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      215.00 - 230.00

-----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for June 15, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 

Wednesday, June 15, 2016 Closing Prices  

COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	July	4.29	↓	         02	cents
Soybeans CBOT	July	11.56	↓	 20	cents
Wheat CBOT	July	4.77	↓	45	cents
Wheat Minn.	July	5.30	↓	25	cents
Wheat Kansas	July	4.57	↓	35	cents
Chicago Oats	 July	2.04	↓	02	cents 
					
Canadian $	June	.7734	↓	1.50	points

CORN:
Corn performed as expected as it took another run on June 8 towards our $4.40 target (as outlined in the June 7 commentary)  and then retreated. From here, the corn is behaving more like the leader rather than the follower of soybeans. The $4.40 target area is an area of significant resistance but the chart formation looks strong. The current formation is not a topping action pattern and for that reason I am expecting more upside challenges to take out the $4.40 level on the July contract even if we decide to pull back before the assault. If we manage to close above the $4.40 level in the coming weeks, our next target is the $4.50 -$4.75 on our July contract and then very little resistance until we challenge the April 2014 highs above $5.00
Support levels on the July contract are at $3.80 - $4 based on Chicago July futures.
 
SOYBEANS:
Soybeans saw a 60 cent trading range as we hit the bullseye target noted in our last report of $11.90 - $12.10. The actual high was $12.08 ½ . We have seen a minor pullback as the current price for July crop futures is $11.60 as of  June 15. Based on our charts, I feel we have at least one more push  to challenge the recent top, but we see may see more of a correction before it is attempted. Our first initial support on July is $11.25 - $11.40 and again at $10.75. Once our correction is complete, we should witness another push to challenge our recent top. If we manage to get through and close above the $12.10 mark, we could be propelled towards our next target of $13. Good support is now seen at $10.75 and again around $10.40, while overhead resistance remains at $11.90 - $12.10 with our next upside target close to the $13 area on the lead month contract. Short and medium term indicators remain bullish, while the long term trend has flashed its first buy signal this year, according to my indicators. However, this signal is not a ‘red’ signal and until we see the red,I will hold off on suggesting that the major trend for soybeans has finally turned the corner. Short and medium term indicators are bullish but we are still awaiting a trend reversal confirmation.

WHEAT: 
The July wheat contract hit our target and the major downtrend line of $5.25 as suggested in last week’s commentary, then immediately backed off 45 cents to complete what should be the interim correction. A closing price of $4.80 on July as of June 15 represents a 38% retracement. I would expect wheat to follow corn and soybeans, if they move higher, but not to the same extent. For now, I feel a challenge of last week’s $5.25; a two- -year- old downtrend line, would be possible only if the soybeans and corn made new highs in the coming weeks. The July contract now has initial support at the $4.70 level on July with major support at the $4.25 - $4.40 level. The daily and weekly indicators are still bullish, but the long term trend is still down.


HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on June 15, 2016

SWW @ $203.07/MT ($5.53/bu),  HRW @ $198.32/MT ($5.40/bu), 
HRS @ $228.25/MT ($6.21/bu),  SRW @ $198.32/MT ($5.40/bu).


-- 
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

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