[Farmmarketnews] Friday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Fri Dec 2 15:45:30 EST 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Fri, December 2
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3298 down 0.0033
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
MAR17 HI 3.47 3/4 DEC17 HI 3.78 1/4
LOW 3.43 LOW 3.75 1/4
CLOSE3.47 1/4 Up 4 3/4 CLOSE 3.77 3/4 Up 2 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR17+MAR17+MAY17
CK Low 0.60 4.07 160.33 0.80 4.58 180.21
CK High 0.65 4.12 162.30 0.85 4.63 182.18
CK Avg 0.64 -0.38 4.11 161.97 0.81 -0.32 4.59 180.54
Essex Cty 0.60 4.07 160.33 0.80 4.58 180.21
Mdsx Low 0.65 4.12 162.30 0.80 4.58 180.21
Mdsx High 0.65 4.12 162.30 0.80 4.58 180.21
Mdsx Avg 0.65 -0.37 4.12 162.30 0.80 -0.33 4.58 180.21
Hensall 0.65 4.12 162.30 0.83 4.60 181.19
Bruce 0.65 4.12 162.30 0.80 4.58 180.21
Putnam 0.65 4.12 162.30 0.85 4.63 182.18
Burford 0.65 4.12 162.30 0.80 4.58 180.21
Port Perry 1.05 4.52 178.04 0.85 4.63 182.18
Norfolk 0.70 4.17 164.26 0.80 4.58 180.21
Palmerston 0.80 4.27 168.20 0.80 4.58 180.21
Varna 0.65 4.12 162.30 0.85 4.63 182.18
Trenton 1.10 4.57 180.01 0.90 4.68 184.15
Winchester 1.15 4.62 181.98 1.06 4.84 190.44
North Gower 1.10 4.57 180.01 1.10 4.88 192.02
Huron FOB 0.85 4.32 170.17 0.85 4.63 182.18
Kent FOB 0.85 4.32 170.17 0.80 4.58 180.21
Lamb FOB 0.95 4.42 174.11 0.85 4.63 182.18
Mdsx FOB 0.65 0.65N/A N/A 4.12 162.30 0.80 4.58 180.21
FOB SW Que 1.00 4.47 176.07N/A
Track 1.23 4.70 184.93N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth 1.15 1.18 1.23 1.21 4.62 181.98 1.00 4.78 188.08
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.05 4.83 190.05
Sarn-Eth 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.25 4.62 181.98N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.10 4.88 192.02
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing 1.31N/A N/A N/A 4.78 188.28 1.15 4.93 193.99
W O Feed 1.43 4.91 193.16
US Rep 1.59 5.06 199.30
Toledo El. -0.21 3.26 128.33 -0.33 3.45 135.66
MID SD CRN 0.62 1/2 4.09 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.65 4.12 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3298 down 0.0033
Chicago soybeans closed narrowly mixed.
JAN17 HI 10.37 3/4 NOV17 HI 10.20 3/4
LOW 10.26 1/2 LOW 10.12
CLOSE10.27 1/2 Down 2 1/4 CLOSE 10.15 Up 1 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+MAR1+MAR17
CK Low 2.49 12.77 469.032.47 12.62 463.71
CK High 2.55 12.83 471.242.70 12.85 472.16
CK Average 2.51 -0.6612.78 469.652.55 -0.5812.70 466.46
Essex Cty 2.50 12.78 469.402.55 12.70 466.65
Mdsx Low 2.49 12.77 469.032.45 12.60 462.97
Mdsx High 2.50 12.78 469.402.50 12.65 464.81
Mdsx Average 2.50 -0.6712.77 469.222.48 -0.6312.63 463.89
Hensall 2.55 12.83 471.242.55 12.70 466.65
Bruce 2.50 12.78 469.402.50 12.65 464.81
Putnam 2.60 12.88 473.082.70 12.85 472.16
Burford 2.56 12.84 471.612.52 12.67 465.54
Port Perry 2.49 12.77 469.032.45 12.60 462.97
Norfolk 2.60 12.88 473.082.55 12.70 466.65
Palmerston 2.50 12.78 469.402.55 12.70 466.65
Varna 2.65 12.93 474.912.65 12.80 470.32
Trenton 2.55 12.83 471.242.55 12.70 466.65
Winchester 2.62 12.90 473.812.58 12.73 467.75
North Gower 2.76 13.04 478.952.79 12.94 475.46
Huron FOB 2.70 12.98 476.752.70 12.85 472.16
Kent FOB 2.65 12.93 474.912.50 12.65 464.81
Lambton FOB 2.55 12.83 471.242.65 12.80 470.32
Middlesex FOB2.68 2.82 N/A N/A 12.96 476.012.64 12.79 469.95
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.13 3.22 N/A N/A 13.41 492.553.05 13.20 485.02
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott N/A 3.05 13.20 485.02
Toledo El. -0.52 9.76 358.49-0.45 9.70 356.38
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3298 down 0.0033
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
MAR17 HI 4.05 JUL17 HI 4.31 1/4
LOW 3.96 1/2 LOW 4.24 1/2
CLOSE 4.04 1/4 Up 8 3/4 CLOSE 4.31 Up 7
Minni wheat closed slightly lower to steady.
MAR17 HI 5.42 1/2 SEP17 HI 5.51
LOW 5.36 LOW 5.47
CLOSE 5.38 1/2 Unchanged CLOSE 5.48 3/4 Down 1
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.60 0.53 0.67 0.51
CAD $/bu 4.64 4.58 4.71 5.89
CAD $/tonne 170.57 168.13 173.01 216.60
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A 0.60 0.55 N/A
London 0.52 0.48 0.52 N/A 0.55 0.41 0.48 N/A
Hensall 0.45 N/A 0.45 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.60 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.70 N/A
Bruce 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.70 0.55 0.60 0.55
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.56 N/A
Norwich 0.45 N/A 0.45 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.60 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.45 0.55 N/A N/A 0.55 0.60 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.45 N/A 0.45 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.60 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A N/A 0.50 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A N/A 0.50 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.65 0.60 0.40 N/A 0.60 0.60 0.60
Varna 0.45 0.45 0.45 N/A 0.65 0.60 0.60 N/A
Mitchell 0.45 0.45 0.45 N/A 0.70 0.55 0.60 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.02 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.41 0.55 0.32 N/A 0.73 0.73 0.51
W O Feed 1.46
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.85 0.85 0.81
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.24 N/A N/A N/A 1.40 N/A
Toledo El. 3.74US 4.97CA 4.11US 5.45CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.74 0.68 0.68 0.60
CAD $/bu 5.05 4.99 4.99 6.08
CAD $/tonne 185.62 183.18 183.18 223.50
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 488.88
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 150.00 - 155.00
____
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for November 30, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, November-30, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Mar
3.49
↓
11
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Jan
10.32
↑
19
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar
4.03
↓
21
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar
5.34
-
00
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar
4.10
↓
20
cents
Chicago Oats
Mar
2.12
↓
10
cents
Canadian $
Dec
.7455
↑
0.40
points
CORN: We are now switching over to the March 17 contract on corn and wheat. With the U.S. Thanksgiving over, we are seeing softness in the grains as corn is now following through on the red sell signal we received on November 11. A close below the $3.45 level on the March contract would signal further weakness, and a possible move back toward the contract lows around the $3.25 level from the Labour Day weekend based on our March contract. Meanwhile, overhead resistance is still at $3.60 - $3.70. Indicators are mixed, but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: The expiry of the November contract seems to have lifted the burden on prices, as the downward pressure seems to have abated. We came within pennies of our upside target of $10.70 since our last commentary, and we will now focus on the next target. We are forming a bullish saucer bottom on the January contract that could see the highs for the January contract tested within the coming couple of months. Initial overhead resistance is now at $10.65 - $10.85, with strong resistance at the $11 area. Meanwhile, support on the January contract has risen to the $10-level. Indicators are still mixed, and the primary trend is still down.
WHEAT: The March wheat contract lost about 15 cents this week to close at $4.08, a low for the March contract. The first notice day pressure was evident on the December contract, as the Thanksgiving weekend didn’t fail to surprise with lower commodity prices and a higher U.S dollar and all-time stock market highs. Once the longs have been removed from the markets, we could see stabilization of the March contract, and hopefully the expiration of the December contract will mark the bottom of the wheat market. The September contract hit a low of $3.60 on the Labour Day weekend before it expired. There is a chance we could see the December contract test that bottom before it expires in mid-December. Meanwhile, our initial support on March is at $4.00 and we are currently flirting with the contract low of $4.09 made back on Labour Day. The weekly chart still has major support at the lows of $3.60. All indicators point lower, and both the intermediate and primary trends are still down; however, the markets are showing signs of being oversold on all charts.
2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of close on November 30, 2016
SWW @ $171.45MT ($4.67/bu), HRW @ $168.98/MT ($4.60/bu),
HRS @ $216.28/MT ($5.89/bu), SRW @ $173.91/MT ($4.73/bu).
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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