[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Aug 11 15:43:44 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, August 11
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3007 down 0.0053
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
SEP16 HI 3.23 3/4 DEC16 HI 3.34 1/4
LOW 3.20 1/2 LOW 3.31
CLOSE3.21 Down 1 1/2 CLOSE 3.31 3/4 Down 1 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC16+DEC16+DEC16
CK Low 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.80 4.12 162.10
CK High 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.85 4.17 164.07
CK Avg 1.10 0.11 4.31 169.68 0.81 -0.13 4.13 162.43
Essex Cty 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.80 4.12 162.10
Mdsx Low 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.80 4.12 162.10
Mdsx High 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.85 4.17 164.07
Mdsx Avg 1.10 0.11 4.31 169.68 0.83 -0.12 4.14 163.08
Hensall 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.85 4.17 164.07
Bruce 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.85 4.17 164.07
Putnam 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.85 4.17 164.07
Burford 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.80 4.12 162.10
Port Perry 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.85 4.17 164.07
Norfolk 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.85 4.17 164.07
Palmerston 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.80 4.12 162.10
Varna 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.85 4.17 164.07
Trenton 1.10 4.31 169.68 0.80 4.12 162.10
Winchester 1.22 4.43 174.40 0.95 4.27 168.00
North Gower 1.19 4.40 173.22 0.95 4.27 168.00
Huron FOB 1.25 4.46 175.58 0.85 4.17 164.07
Kent FOB 1.25 4.46 175.58 0.80 4.12 162.10
Lamb FOB 1.30 4.51 177.55 0.70 4.02 158.16
Mdsx FOB 1.25 1.25N/A N/A 4.46 175.58 0.80 4.12 162.10
FOB SW Que 1.70 4.91 193.30N/A
Track 1.60 4.81 189.36N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.45N/A N/A 1.00 4.32 169.97
Sarn-Eth 1.45 1.45N/A N/A 4.66 183.46 1.05 4.37 171.94
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing 1.47 1.50 1.57N/A 4.68 184.24 0.93 4.25 167.22
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A 1.75N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.70N/A 1.01 4.33 170.37
W O Feed 1.71 4.92 193.77
US Rep 1.73 4.94 194.48
Toledo El. 0.09 3.30 129.95 -0.26 3.06 120.41
MID SD CRN 0.82 1/2 4.14 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.85 4.16 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3007 down 0.0053
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV16 HI 9.90 NOV16 HI 9.90
LOW 9.78 1/4 LOW 9.78 1/4
CLOSE9.84 Up 1 3/4 CLOSE 9.84 Up 1 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV16
CK Low 2.88 12.72 467.382.40 12.24 449.74
CK High 3.00 12.84 471.792.50 12.34 453.42
CK Average 2.92 0.00 12.76 468.912.44 -0.3512.28 451.09
Essex Cty 3.00 12.84 471.792.50 12.34 453.42
Mdsx Low 2.86 12.70 466.652.40 12.24 449.74
Mdsx High 2.90 12.74 468.112.45 12.29 451.58
Mdsx Average 2.88 -0.0312.72 467.382.43 -0.3612.27 450.66
Hensall 2.90 12.74 468.112.40 12.24 449.74
Bruce 2.90 12.74 468.112.40 12.24 449.74
Putnam 3.00 12.84 471.792.50 12.34 453.42
Burford 2.89 12.73 467.752.48 12.32 452.68
Port Perry 2.86 12.70 466.652.45 12.29 451.58
Norfolk 2.90 12.74 468.112.40 12.24 449.74
Palmerston 3.00 12.84 471.792.50 12.34 453.42
Varna 2.90 12.74 468.112.40 12.24 449.74
Trenton N/A 2.65 12.49 458.93
Winchester N/A 2.45 12.29 451.58
North Gower N/A 2.47 12.31 452.32
Huron FOB 3.00 12.84 471.792.50 12.34 453.42
Kent FOB 3.05 12.89 473.632.50 12.34 453.42
Lambton FOB 3.10 12.94 475.462.55 12.39 455.25
Middlesex FOB3.03 3.03 N/A N/A 12.87 472.892.56 12.40 455.62
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.44 3.44 2.97 3.03 13.28 487.962.97 12.81 470.69
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.15 11.99 440.563.15 12.99 477.30
Toledo El. 0.06 9.90 363.94-0.41 9.43 346.34
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3007 down 0.0053
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP16 HI 4.24 JUL17 HI 4.82 1/2
LOW 4.13 1/2 LOW 4.76 1/4
CLOSE 4.16 1/4 Down 5 1/2 CLOSE 4.79 1/2 Down 1
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP16 HI 5.10 SEP17 HI 5.53 1/4
LOW 4.99 1/2 LOW 5.50
CLOSE 5.03 1/2 Up 2 1/4 CLOSE 5.51 3/4 Up 1 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.52 0.39 0.65 0.46
CAD $/bu 4.69 4.56 4.82 5.49
CAD $/tonne 172.16 167.40 176.93 201.83
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 0.35 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
London 0.48 0.28 0.44 N/A 0.52 0.39 0.39 N/A
Hensall 0.45 N/A 0.40 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.45 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.55 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Norwich 0.45 N/A 0.40 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.45 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.60 0.50 0.60 N/A 0.35 0.45 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.45 N/A 0.40 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.45 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.30 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.40 0.40 0.55 N/A 0.40 0.50 0.55
Varna 0.45 0.35 0.40 N/A 0.55 0.45 0.45 N/A
Mitchell 0.45 0.30 0.40 N/A 0.60 0.35 0.45 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.07 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.44 0.70 0.62 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.60 0.80 0.45 N/A 0.60 0.65 0.45
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.24 N/A N/A N/A 1.41 N/A
Toledo El. 4.09US 5.31CA 4.60US 5.95CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.76 0.70 0.44
CAD $/bu 5.56 5.49 5.24
CAD $/tonne 204.25 201.87 192.36
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 519.09
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 175.00 - 180.00
------
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 10, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, August 10, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Sep
3.22
↓
03
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Sep
9.98
↑
23
cents
Wheat CBOT
Sep
4.22
↑
10
cents
Wheat Minn.
Sep
5.01
↑
8
cents
Wheat Kansas
Sep
4.12
↑
1
cents
Chicago Oats
Sep
1.72
↓
24
cents
Canadian $
Sep
.7665
↑
.25
points
CORN:
Corn is still in our major support zone of $3 - $3.20; and although the charts look bad, there should continue to be support until at least the next United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report scheduled for release on August 12. There is not much new to report here except that the news is mostly all bearish and at some point it will stop having any effect on lowering prices. Generally, harvest time is when we see the most pressure on the cash price and this is definitely one of those years. Meanwhile, this is a multi-year bear market and it must be respected as such. All indicators are still negative and the main trend is still down, but we must add that these market indicators are getting in the extremely oversold zone and eventually we will see a reversal. The key is we don’t know when or from what level.
SOYBEANS:
We are now tracking the September contract on soybeans as they continue to trade sideways in our support zone of $9.75 - $10.25 on the September contract. There is not much to report here except that the month of August could provide the tipping point for the price going forward. If the USDA report this month confirms expected yields, we could see a move back towards the $8.50 bottom in the coming months, but if there is a surprise in the USDA’s reporting, we could see a move higher towards the $11 price for the September contract. While support is seen at $9.75 - $10, our overhead resistance is around $10.30 - $10.50 on the September contract. Our indicators are oversold. Signals are still mixed but the main trend is still down.
WHEAT:
Since our last report, the $4 level on the Chicago September futures has held. With the USDA report on August 12, we could see a retest of the $4 level once again and if we run the stops and close higher on the day, it may in fact be a short term bottom. If we get that, we could be set up for at least a decent rally for a couple of weeks. But that is only speculation at this point. First we need to see if the current bottom holds on a close only. Meanwhile, we have seen a few daily indicators turning positive, but that is not a strong signal. Good support is still seen at $4 on close based on the September contract. The indicators remain negative but oversold. The main trend continues to be down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on August 10, 2016
SWW @ $175.93MT ($4.79/bu), HRW @ $171.13/MT ($4.66/bu),
HRS @ $206.60/MT ($5.62/bu), SRW @ $180.72/MT ($4.92/bu).
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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