[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Aug 4 15:38:12 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, August 4
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3025 down 0.0055
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
SEP16 HI 3.26 3/4 DEC16 HI 3.36 1/2
LOW 3.20 1/2 LOW 3.30 3/4
CLOSE3.20 3/4 Down 4 1/4 CLOSE 3.31 Down 4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC16+DEC16+DEC16
CK Low 1.00 4.21 165.64 0.75 4.06 159.84
CK High 1.05 4.26 167.61 0.80 4.11 161.80
CK Avg 1.04 0.06 4.25 167.28 0.76 -0.18 4.07 160.16
Essex Cty 1.00 4.21 165.64 0.75 4.06 159.84
Mdsx Low 1.05 4.26 167.61 0.75 4.06 159.84
Mdsx High 1.05 4.26 167.61 0.80 4.11 161.80
Mdsx Avg 1.05 0.07 4.26 167.61 0.78 -0.17 4.09 160.82
Hensall 1.05 4.26 167.61 0.80 4.11 161.80
Bruce 1.05 4.26 167.61 0.80 4.11 161.80
Putnam 1.00 4.21 165.64 0.80 4.11 161.80
Burford 1.05 4.26 167.61 0.75 4.06 159.84
Port Perry 1.05 4.26 167.61 0.80 4.11 161.80
Norfolk 1.05 4.26 167.61 0.80 4.11 161.80
Palmerston 1.00 4.21 165.64 0.75 4.06 159.84
Varna 1.05 4.26 167.61 0.80 4.11 161.80
Trenton 1.10 4.31 169.58 0.80 4.11 161.80
Winchester 1.22 4.43 174.30 0.96 4.27 168.10
North Gower 1.02 4.23 166.43 0.95 4.26 167.71
Huron FOB 1.20 4.41 173.52 0.80 4.11 161.80
Kent FOB 1.20 4.41 173.52 0.75 4.06 159.84
Lamb FOB 1.30 4.51 177.45 0.70 4.01 157.87
Mdsx FOB 1.15 1.15N/A N/A 4.36 171.55 0.75 4.06 159.84
FOB SW Que 1.48 4.69 184.54N/A
Track 1.60 4.81 189.26N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.35N/A N/A 0.95 4.26 167.71
Sarn-Eth 1.45 1.45N/A N/A 4.66 183.36 1.00 4.31 169.68
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.26 167.71
London-Ing 1.57 1.59 1.65N/A 4.78 188.08 0.85 4.16 163.77
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A 1.78N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.73N/A 1.01 4.32 170.07
W O Feed 1.66 4.87 191.63
US Rep 1.82 5.03 197.92
Toledo El. 0.09 3.30 129.86 -0.26 3.05 120.08
MID SD CRN 0.77 1/2 4.08 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.80 4.11
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3025 down 0.0055
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV16 HI 9.67 1/2 NOV16 HI 9.67 1/2
LOW 9.50 1/2 LOW 9.50 1/2
CLOSE9.56 3/4 Up 1 1/4 CLOSE 9.56 3/4 Up 1 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV16
CK Low 2.75 12.32 452.592.34 11.91 437.53
CK High 2.95 12.52 459.942.45 12.02 441.57
CK Average 2.88 0.00 12.45 457.372.37 -0.3811.94 438.75
Essex Cty 2.90 12.47 458.102.35 11.92 437.89
Mdsx Low 2.86 12.43 456.632.32 11.89 436.79
Mdsx High 2.90 12.47 458.102.35 11.92 437.89
Mdsx Average 2.88 0.00 12.45 457.372.34 -0.4111.90 437.34
Hensall 2.93 12.49 459.022.35 11.92 437.89
Bruce 2.90 12.47 458.102.35 11.92 437.89
Putnam 2.90 12.47 458.102.35 11.92 437.89
Burford 2.89 12.46 457.732.35 11.92 437.89
Port Perry 2.86 12.43 456.632.32 11.89 436.79
Norfolk 2.90 12.47 458.102.35 11.92 437.89
Palmerston 2.90 12.47 458.102.35 11.92 437.89
Varna 2.95 12.52 459.942.35 11.92 437.89
Trenton 2.90 12.47 458.102.60 12.17 447.08
Winchester N/A 2.23 11.80 433.48
North Gower N/A 2.39 11.96 439.36
Huron FOB 3.05 12.62 463.612.45 12.02 441.57
Kent FOB 3.05 12.62 463.612.45 12.02 441.57
Lambton FOB 3.05 12.62 463.612.55 12.12 445.24
Middlesex FOB3.03 N/A N/A N/A 12.60 462.882.49 12.06 443.04
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.39 3.39 2.87 2.93 12.96 476.112.87 12.44 457.00
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.05 11.62 426.872.90 12.47 458.10
Toledo El. 0.07 9.63 353.94-0.42 9.15 336.27
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3025 down 0.0055
Chicago wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
SEP16 HI 4.16 JUL17 HI 4.86
LOW 4.02 1/2 LOW 4.76 1/2
CLOSE 4.03 1/4 Down 7 CLOSE 4.77 1/2 Down 5
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP16 HI 4.96 SEP17 HI 5.45
LOW 4.86 3/4 LOW 5.42 1/2
CLOSE 4.88 3/4 Down 3 3/4 CLOSE 5.42 1/2 Down 5
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.50 0.37 0.50 0.56
CAD $/bu 4.53 4.40 4.53 5.45
CAD $/tonne 166.47 161.69 166.47 200.17
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 0.35 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
London 0.47 0.30 0.43 N/A 0.56 0.43 0.43 N/A
Hensall 0.45 N/A 0.40 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.45 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.60 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Norwich 0.45 N/A 0.40 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.45 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.55 0.50 0.55 N/A 0.35 0.45 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.45 N/A 0.40 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.45 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.30 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.40 0.45 0.60 N/A 0.40 0.50 0.55
Varna 0.45 0.35 0.40 N/A 0.55 0.45 0.45 N/A
Mitchell 0.45 0.30 0.40 N/A 0.60 0.35 0.45 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.08 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.41 0.54 0.60 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.75 0.75 0.45 N/A 0.60 0.65 0.45
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 1.47 N/A 1.21 N/A N/A N/A 1.43 N/A
Toledo El. 3.96US 5.16CA 4.58US 5.94CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.78 0.71 0.45
CAD $/bu 5.55 5.49 5.23
CAD $/tonne 204.09 201.70 192.16
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 515.89
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 190.00 - 210.00
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 3, 2016 by Marty Hibbs
CORN:
We did get to our support price of $3.20 on the September corn contract, but barely. After touching $3.19 on August 2, we closed out the day at $3.25. This doesn’t mean much except that we are getting into serious support between $3 and our current levels on the September contract. We are now trading at or near 10 year lows and there are several pivot points below these levels that could be hiding a rash of stop orders. I am still looking for a reversal day of significance which could be a clue that we are bottoming out. As soon as I see one, I will alert our readers and hope I am correct. It is anticipated that this year’s crop will be another record yield, but if we get a hotter than expected August in the mid-west, that may not come to pass. Meanwhile, this is a multi-year bear market and it must be respected as such. All indicators are still negative and the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
Soybeans have been quiet as the September contract has traded sideways in our support zone of 25 cents per bushel on either side of the $10. The month of August should be supportive for soybeans and until we are deeper into the month, prices should be some-what firm until we have passed the threat of heat related damage. It seems many are counting this crop as done but until August is in the books,like the corn crop, the yields may not prove to be as good as expected. While support is seen at $9.80-$10, our overhead resistance is around the $10.50-$10.75 with more trouble at the $11 area based on the September contract. With the recent drop in prices, our indicators are now oversold. Signals are still mixed but the main trend is still down.
WHEAT:
As suggested last week, we did indeed challenge and take out the $4 mark on the September contract since our last commentary. The September futures continue to make new lows, but at a much slower pace. With the current crop in the can, we are now somewhat dependent on the other grains to give some support to the wheat crop. Since violating the $4 price on the September contract, we had a 10 cent per bushel bounce back to the $4.10 level. Good support is still seen at $4 on close based on the September contract, however, the trend is still down and we could actually see a hard break as stops are hit and the change of power is moved from net short to neutral or long positions in the coming weeks. The indicators remain negative but oversold. The main trend continues to be down.
---
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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