[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jan 28 15:33:33 EST 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, January 28
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2451 up 0.0047
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.
MAR15 HI 3.81 1/2 DEC15 HI 4.11 3/4
LOW 3.73 LOW 4.04
CLOSE3.73 1/4 Down 8 CLOSE 4.04 1/4 Down 7
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR15+MAY15+MAY15
CK Low 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
CK High 0.75 4.48 176.47 0.35 4.39 172.93
CK Avg 0.71 -0.23 4.44 174.83 0.31 -0.71 4.35 171.28
Essex Cty 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Mdsx Low 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Mdsx High 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Mdsx Avg 0.70 -0.24 4.43 174.50 0.30 -0.72 4.34 170.96
Hensall 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Bruce 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Putnam 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.25 4.29 168.99
Burford 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Port Perry 0.65 4.38 172.53 0.30 4.34 170.96
Norfolk 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Palmerston 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Varna 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Trenton 0.85 4.58 180.41 0.45 4.49 176.86
Winchester 0.95 4.68 184.34 0.75 4.79 188.67
North Gower 0.95 4.68 184.34 0.65 4.69 184.74
Huron FOB 0.80 4.53 178.44 0.35 4.39 172.93
Kent FOB 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Lamb FOB 0.70 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
Mdsx FOB 0.70 0.70 0.65 0.75 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.34 170.96
FOB SW Que N/A 0.73 4.77 187.89
Track 1.03 4.76 187.29N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.75 4.79 188.67
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.90 4.94 194.58
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.00 1.00 1.00 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.05 0.70 4.74 186.70
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.75 4.79 188.67
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.85 4.89 192.61
W O Feed 1.09 0.78 4.82 189.70
US Rep 1.25 0.94 4.98 196.15
Toledo El. -0.19 3.54 139.55 -0.54 3.50 137.96
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.65 4.38172 1/2 0.65 4.69184 3/4
MID SD CRN 0.72 1/2 4.45 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.75 4.48 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2451 up 0.0047
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
MAR15 HI 9.77 3/4 NOV15 HI 9.66
LOW 9.66 1/4 LOW 9.56 1/4
CLOSE9.70 1/4 Down 3 1/2 CLOSE 9.58 1/4 Down 4 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAR1+MAY15
CK Low 1.64 11.34 416.771.45 11.03 405.37
CK High 1.80 11.50 422.641.55 11.13 409.05
CK Average 1.72 -0.7311.42 419.521.50 -0.9111.09 407.33
Essex Cty 2.12 11.82 434.401.73 11.31 415.66
Mdsx Low 1.62 11.32 416.031.45 11.03 405.37
Mdsx High 1.70 11.40 418.971.50 11.08 407.21
Mdsx Average 1.66 -0.7911.36 417.501.48 -0.9311.06 406.29
Hensall 1.70 11.40 418.971.50 11.08 407.21
Bruce 1.70 11.40 418.971.50 11.08 407.21
Putnam 1.70 11.40 418.971.50 11.08 407.21
Burford 1.65 11.35 417.131.48 11.06 406.48
Port Perry 1.62 11.32 416.031.45 11.03 405.37
Norfolk 1.70 11.40 418.971.50 11.08 407.21
Palmerston 1.70 11.40 418.971.50 11.08 407.21
Varna 1.70 11.40 418.971.50 11.08 407.21
Trenton 1.65 11.35 417.131.45 11.03 405.37
Winchester 2.25 11.95 439.181.85 11.43 420.07
North Gower 2.16 11.86 435.871.81 11.39 418.60
Huron FOB 1.90 11.60 426.321.55 11.13 409.05
Kent FOB 1.70 11.40 418.971.50 11.08 407.21
Lambton FOB 1.70 11.40 418.971.50 11.08 407.21
Middlesex FOB1.92 1.92 2.02 N/A 11.62 427.051.68 11.26 413.83
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.37 2.38 2.44 N/A 12.07 443.592.07 11.65 428.16
Windsor 2.33 2.23 2.23 2.18 12.03 442.121.94 11.52 423.38
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.40 N/A N/A N/A 12.10 444.691.87 11.45 420.81
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.20 9.50 349.14-0.48 9.11 334.62
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2451 up 0.0047
Chicago wheat closed lower.
MAR15 HI 5.20 1/2 JUL15 HI 5.30
LOW 5.03 LOW 5.14
CLOSE 5.05 1/4 Down 13 3/4 CLOSE 5.16 Down 12 3/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
MAR15 HI 5.66 1/2 SEP15 HI 5.90
LOW 5.54 LOW 5.79 1/2
CLOSE 5.55 Down 11 1/2 CLOSE 5.79 3/4 Down 11
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.03 1.59 1.21 0.78
CAD $/bu 7.08 6.64 6.27 6.33
CAD $/tonne 260.14 244.03 230.22 232.41
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.25 0.66 N/A
London 2.10 1.35 1.10 N/A 1.15 1.28 0.53 N/A
Hensall 2.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.25 N/A 0.55 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.55 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.25
Essex N/A N/A 1.19 N/A N/A N/A 0.61 N/A
Norwich 2.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.35 N/A 0.65 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 2.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.35 N/A 0.55 N/A
Chatham N/A 1.70 1.10 N/A N/A 1.25 0.60 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.80 1.10 0.60 N/A 1.35 0.60 0.30
Varna 2.15 1.75 1.15 N/A 1.25 1.25 0.55 N/A
Mitchell 2.15 1.75 1.15 N/A 1.25 1.25 0.55 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.31 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.98
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 1.18 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.28N/A 1.59N/A N/A N/A 1.55N/A
Toledo El. 5.17US 6.48CA 5.23US 6.54CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.30 1.80 0.86 1.02
CAD $/bu 6.46 6.96 6.02 6.82
CAD $/tonne 237.26 255.66 221.17 250.48
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 526.25 - 537.28
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 250.00
Wednesday, January 28, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.73 ↓ 15 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 9.70 ↓ 13 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 5.05 ↓ 30 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 5.55 ↓ 25 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 5.36 ↓ 35 cents
Canadian $ Mar .79.85 ↓ 103 points
CORN:
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) January report showed domestic ending stocks for corn at 1.877 billion bushels, which was smaller than expected. Global ending stocks, at 171.64 million metric tonnes, were smaller than expected.
On the charts: We are approaching the January 14 low of $3.75 on March corn as of this writing (January 28). On the downside, technical support is found at $3.55-$3.65 based on the March contract. The Short and long term trends are still negative while the intermediate trend remains neutral.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: We finally closed below the $9.75 support level on the March contract. The big question is whether or not we will get a rally in February before we challenge the October lows of $9. In any case, unless fundamentals change, we are destined to test the $9 levels based on the lead month. All indicators at this time are still bearish, confirming the downtrend that has been in place since June 2014.
WHEAT:
According to USDA data, the global wheat ending stocks were larger than expected at 82.38 million metric tonnes.
On the charts: The wheat is testing $5 as of this writing (January 28). This should prove to be no more than a temporary support level as the old bottom of $4.70 is looming large and in need of a retest to confirm support at that level. Short, medium and long term indicators are negative. The wheat will need a lot of work to turn this market back to a bullish scenario. The main trend remains down.
2014 HARVEST CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE January 28, 2015
SWW @ $259.50/mt ($7.06/bu), SRW @ $229.65/mt ($6.25/bu),
HRW @ $243.43/mt ($6.63/bu), HRS @ $231.94/mt ($6.31/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
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John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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